FireKeepers Casino 400 Preview: Big Oval Racing

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

As we put the wild finish and fender-beating action of short track racing behind us, we look forward to this weekend when the NASCAR Cup Series will pay their first and only visit of the season to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers Casino 400. Historically, there have been two annual events at the Michigan oval, but a schedule shakeup a few seasons ago has trimmed the action to just one race at the high speed, two-mile track. This facility has wowed us for years with some of the fastest speeds recorded in all of NASCAR. At its height we saw a pole qualifying lap of 206.558 mph in 2014 by Jeff Gordon, and that still stands as the pole qualifying record at MIS. The speeds have gradually drifted downwards in recent seasons due to many aerodynamic and performance changes to the Cup Series car, but we still see qualifying laps in the low 190's. With this being the lone event of 2024 at Michigan International Speedway there will be a lot of unknowns about handling and aerodynamics. Still, the race a few weeks ago at Pocono Raceway, which is another big oval will be likely our best preview of what's to come on Sunday. Ford and Toyota drivers equally dominated most of that 400-mile event in July, and we'll soon see if these camps still have a firm grip on big oval dominance with the race at Michigan.   

The oval in Michigan has similar aerodynamic and raw horsepower characteristics to Pocono Raceway, but at Michigan the drivers stay wide open the full lap where as there is a good degree of braking in the corners at Pocono. So, while Pocono is a good comp for this weekend, we'll really need to also examine last season's race at MIS. There were 16 different drivers who led at least a lap and 28 lead changes in last August's FireKeepers Casino 400. That parity and action made for a thrilling race that would be decided by a very narrow margin, despite ending on an uninterrupted 67-lap green-flag haul to the finish. We'll see if we're in for the same great action this Sunday.     

Since we'll be looking back at Pocono Raceway for some ideas on performance this weekend, that data will be a bit skewed due to the different configurations of the two tracks. Short term history for Michigan International Speedway should serve us well too, probably as far back as 2019. The drivers who have performed well at MIS over the years are certainly worth some added scrutiny. As always, hot streaks entering this weekend will play a part, so we'll keep an eye on those as well. The loop stats shown below cover the last 19 years or 35 races at Michigan International Speedway.

Throughout the years Michigan International Speedway was a track of parity. It seemed that any manufacturer was a contender for victory lane each time we visited the Irish Hills. However, the last few seasons have seen Michigan become a track of streaks. Ford drivers have reeled off nine-straight victories at the two-mile oval. Drivers from that brand will be defending their turf heading into Sunday's battle. Kevin Harvick won five of the last eight events at the two-mile Michigan oval, and now that he's retired there will be some new faces emerge at the top of the Michigan heap. Ford drivers have found it difficult to win this season (just 5 victories so far), so the brand's big Michigan win streak is on the line this Sunday.

This event one year ago saw Chris Buescher seize control from Martin Truex Jr. and battle his way over the final laps in a strategy battle to victory. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran would go onto lead the final 12 laps at Michigan, hold off a strong challenge from Truex and collect the big victory to keep Ford's current Michigan win streak rolling. Ford drivers have only won five of the 22 events thus far this season, so they'll be at a bit of a disadvantage. Or will they? Those five victories have all come in the last 10 events and Toyota drivers have been held winless in the last four races. Drivers like Denny Hamlin, Truex Jr. and Christopher Bell will be squarely in the spotlight this weekend to see if Toyota can solve the Michigan puzzle and return the brand to victory lane at MIS for the first time since 2015. We'll outline the drivers with past history and Michigan and current streaking drivers that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming off a runner-up finish at Richmond and carrying a lot of momentum into Michigan International Speedway. The veteran Toyota driver is a two-time winner at MIS (2010 and 2011) and while those victories were some time ago, he's been a career-long performer here as his additional three runner-up Michigan finishes illustrate. Hamlin is riding a four-race Michigan Top-5 streak and six-race Top-10 streak into this weekend's action and two of those efforts were runner-up finishes (2019 and 2020). In this event one year ago, the Joe Gibbs Racing star came from 13th on the starting grid to race up to an impressive third-place finish. Hamlin's recent runner-up finish at Pocono Raceway also bodes well for his chances in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has had a pretty good season thus far. Keselowski has posted one win and 10 Top 10's so far this season and ride a comfortable ninth-place in the driver standings into Michigan this weekend. The veteran driver has always liked these huge ovals. Keselowski has never won at MIS, but he owns three-career runner-up finishes here, and his 14 Top 10's checks in at a strong 54-percent rate. A few short weeks ago at the big oval in Pocono, he drove from 14th on the starting grid to a respectable seventh-place finish while also leading 20 laps. We should see a similar performance from Keselowski at Michigan. He is not to be underestimated at this two-mile oval.      

Kyle Larson – Larson has been a bit inconsistent of late, but the intermediate and large ovals have been his strength throughout his career. The 2021 Cup Series champion has always liked the two-mile ovals as his two-career Fontana victories and three-career Michigan wins illustrate this fact. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet rides a four-race Michigan Top-10 streak into this Sunday and that has boosted Larson's career Top-10 rate at Michigan to a whopping 60-percent. Larson's recent victory at the Indianapolis oval before the Olympic break bodes well heading to MIS. This driver and team have four wins on the season and three of those four have come on intermediate and larger ovals.  

Joey Logano – Logano saw a potential win slip away on the last lap at Richmond this past weekend. He'll look to hit the reset button in a big way this Sunday at Michigan. Logano's three-career victories at Michigan International Speedway rank him among the active leaders at this track. Additionally, his 67-percent Top-10 rate at MIS is very strong and among the best rates in the Cup Series. With close to 600 laps led at Michigan, Logano is used to racing up front here. Given his production and performance on big ovals this season (a Top-5 finish recently at Pocono) the No. 22 Penske Ford team could be a homerun threat in the FireKeepers Casino 400.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – With a win at Pocono and third-place finish at Indianapolis recently, Blaney is well positioned coming to the Irish Hills this weekend. The Penske Racing star is a one-time winner at the two-mile Michigan oval. In addition to Blaney's win, he now has eight Top-10 finishes at MIS for a steady 53-percent rate. He had a lot of struggles earlier in his career at this track but has reversed them in recent seasons with a three-race Michigan Top-10 streak to bolster his career-stats at MIS. Blaney has a lot on the line in terms of the championship picture. He has two wins and qualifies for the playoffs, but Blaney needs to secure as many points as he can between now at the regular season cutoff at Daytona to improve his seeding. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex enters this weekend coming off a disappointing engine failure at Richmond and looking to regroup. With the playoffs looming large, we expect a big push from this driver and team in the lead up to Daytona. Truex rides a seven-race Michigan Top-10 streak into Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400 and he sports a steady 49-percent career Top-10 rate at the two-mile oval in the Irish Hills. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota was a runner-up finisher in this event one year ago and that bodes well for his chances in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400. Truex will be a solid driver to depend on at Michigan International Speedway.

Chase Elliott – Elliott built on his three-race Top-10 streak this past Sunday at Richmond and he should keep the momentum rolling this weekend at Michigan International Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports star has never won at Michigan but he has registered three runner-up finishes at the Irish Hills speedway. Elliott's 77-percent career Top-10 rate at this track is almost too dazzling to comprehend and his recent Top-10 finish at Pocono is a good indicator heading into the FireKeepers Casino 400. Elliott's 10.2 career average finish at MIS speaks volumes of his ability at this two-mile oval. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet will be a Top-10 driver in this 400-mile battle.

William Byron – Byron showed us his muscle a few weeks ago on the big oval in Pocono. He won the outside pole and looked poised to challenge for the win before finishing fourth-place. He doesn't have the best Michigan stats, but we believe this start could be different for the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet. Byron does at least have a runner-up finish at Michigan International Speedway and as recently as 2021. So, he's very capable of turning in a great performance in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Some of Byron's best finishes this season have come on the intermediate and larger ovals. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has good potential in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Michigan & solid upside

Tyler Reddick – Reddick's sixth-place finish at Pocono is a real eye-catcher heading to Michigan. He followed that up with a strong pole position, 40 laps led and runner-up finish at Indianapolis as an encore. The 23XI Racing star hasn't had the best luck at Michigan International Speedway in five starts (26.0) average finish. However, Reddick's average start of 10.6 indicates good cars and good speed. It's clear that the young driver will have great potential for the FireKeepers Casino 400. We've slotted Reddick in the sleepers list this week to hedge the risk (due to his Michigan) history, but we can't help but be impressed by what we've seen of him of late, especially on the larger ovals.   

Christopher Bell – Bell was a recent 12th-place finisher at the big Pocono oval as well as a strong fourth-place finisher at Indianapolis, and that good qualifying/race effort teases his potential for Michigan International Speedway. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has sat on the outside pole and pole position in the last two starts at Michigan and he's led a combined 32 laps in those events. The finishes have not come just yet for him at this oval, but the performance and cars are there to put him in a good finish. Bell's 8.0 average finish between Pocono and Indianapolis recently speak to his potential in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.      

Chris Buescher – Buescher won this event one year ago in a bit of an upset. He led a whopping 52 laps that day after starting on the second row and turned in a convincing and dominant win. While we don't expect the driver of the No. 17 Ford to successfully defend his race win of a year ago, Buescher should have a lot of utility in this FireKeepers Casino 400. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has a reasonably good 13.0 average finish over his last four starts at Michigan International Speedway. That's well below his career 18.7 average finish at the track and shows considerable improvement in recent seasons. Buescher led 11 laps and finished a respectable 11th-place at Pocono recently and that's likely a good preview of what to expect at Michigan.

Bubba Wallace – Coming off a strong fourth-place finish at Richmond and riding a three-race Top-10 streak into this weekend's action, Wallace and the No. 23 team will look to keep the momentum rolling. Wallace turned in a career-best Michigan performance in this race two years ago. He'd pilot the No. 23 Toyota to the pole position, lead 22 laps and cross the finish line second-place to Kevin Harvick in the 2022 edition of the FireKeepers Casino 400. That would be just his second Top-10 finish at Michigan International Speedway, but well above and beyond anything Wallace had achieved before at the facility. Considering that Wallace recently finished 10th- and fifth-place at Pocono and the Brickyard, we have high expectations for him this weekend in the Irish Hills.

Daniel Suarez – The 2024 season has largely been a lull for Suarez and the No. 99 team, but they seem to have come to life just prior to the Olympic break. He has two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last four starts and looking to stay hot in the FireKeepers Casino 400. Suarez has a reasonable 12.0 average finish in his last two big oval starts and he's been good in his last two Michigan International Speedway starts.  The driver of the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has led 45 combined laps in his last two MIS starts and he grabbed a strong sixth-place finish in this event one year ago. This driver and team are heating up coming to Michigan this week and have had the recent success at the two-mile oval to warrant fantasy consideration.       

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has just two Cup Series starts at Michigan International Speedway to his credit, but they've been pretty solid performances. The driver of the JGR No. 54 Toyota has 10th- and 11th-place finishes in those events and he qualified well in both as well. The young driver will lean on that experience in Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400. Gibbs has qualified well in his last two big oval starts (Pocono and Indianapolis) with a 3.5 average start. However, an engine failure and some bad luck robbed him of the finishes he deserved in those two races. We believe Gibbs has what it takes to challenge the Top 10 Sunday at Michigan International Speedway.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch is a one-time Michigan winner and has a reasonable 43-percent Top-10 rate at the two-mile oval in the Irish Hills. However, the Richard Childress Racing star has crashed out of his last two Michigan starts and now has five-career DNF's at MIS. It's inflated his average finish at the track to 17.5, which is less than stellar. Qualifying well at this track has never been a problem for Busch, but getting consistent finishes has been his Achilles Heel. This season has been a train wreck of sorts for the No. 8 Chevrolet team. Busch has just six Top-10 finishes so far and sits a lowly 18th-place in the driver standings. His last two big oval starts at Pocono and Indianapolis are more forgettable than memorable.   

Ross Chastain – Chastain's inconsistency this season has been a real problem for forecasting weekly performance. The Trackhouse Racing veteran is coming off a great Top-5 finish at Richmond, but this week's race on the two-mile Michigan oval is completely different. The big tracks have not been good to the No. 1 Chevrolet team this season. Chastain did not qualify well at all in either the recent Pocono or Indianapolis events. He crashed out at Pocono but fetched a reasonable Top 15 at the Brickyard. That inconsistency is also present in his career Michigan numbers. With just one Top 10 in six starts, his 26.0 average finish and 17-percent Top-10 rate are not desirable stats.

Austin Cindric – It's been a long, inconsistent season for the driver of the No. 2 Penske Racing Ford. Cindric has just three Top-10 finishes all season long and is a distant 20th-place in the driver standings. His big oval performances of late have been a mixed bag and have netted 18th- and seventh-place finishes at Pocono and Indianapolis. The prospects do not look dependable for this driver and team heading to the Irish Hills of Michigan Sunday. Cindric's two prior Cup Series starts at Michigan International Speedway have netted 37th- and 12th-place finishes. Pretty much all over the map and averaging 24.5 on the finish. There are better driver choices this weekend in the FireKeepers Casino 400.

Michael McDowell – Of the full-time drivers in NASCAR's top division, McDowell is probably the shakiest performer at Michigan. His 17-career starts have netted just one Top-20 finish and an average finish of 30.1 which is pretty woeful. McDowell doesn't qualify well at MIS, which his 27.3 average start figure attests. He's failed to finish on the lead lap in his last two Michigan starts. McDowell brought home a 24th-place finish in this event one year ago, and that's probably not far off where he'll finish Sunday at Michigan International Speedway. His 20.0 average finish between recent races at Pocono and the Brickyard seem to back this assumption up.