This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
F1 returns and NASCAR rolls on at two iconic tracks. Suzuka Circuit will host Max Verstappen and the rest of the field for the Japanese Grand Prix, in what is widely considered to be one of the most popular tracks for drivers and fans alike. There will be plenty of speed, something we'll cover in more detail shortly. The race will kick off at 1 AM Eastern on Sunday.
Following that up will be the Cookout 400, a track that has a place in NASCAR history unlike many others. It's a second consecutive short track following last weekend's race at Richmond, though it's known to be a unique track that really isn't comparable to any of its peers.
With that backdrop in mind, let's make some picks.
Japanese Grand Prix Picks
Oscar Piastri under 5.5 starting position
McLaren hasn't taken the step forward they promised early this season, as they've been easily outclassed by Ferrari and haven't been close to challenging Red Bull. The latter will almost certainly remain true this weekend, but we should project them to have perhaps their best performance of the early schedule. Their car does best at high speeds and has a particular problem with low-speed corners. Suzuka is one of the fastest tracks on the calendar and features very few low-speed sections, which should suit both Piastri and Lando Norris. Ultimately, Piastri's projection is a bit less demanding (4.5 for Norris), so we'll side with the Aussie.
Lewis Hamilton over 7.5 starting position
We can debate whether Hamilton is checked out of Mercedes and has instead turned his focus to Ferrari, or whether his car simply isn't good enough. Regardless of your opinion, he's started the season in abysmal form. He's failed to start better than eighth in any of the three races to this point. If there's going to be a turnaround, I wouldn't expect it here, as Mercedes has the opposite characteristics of McLaren, which leads to struggles at high-speed tracks.
Nico Hulkenberg over 13.5 starting position
Haas is an interesting team early this year. They've overperformed preseason expectations by tallying four points in the Constructor Standings. Under the new leadership of Ayao Komatsu, the team has managed to shift from running a single fast lap over qualifying to finding more sustainable speed over the course of a race. Hulkenberg has qualified 15th and 16th in the last two races, even if he is able to move up the field during the race.
Cookout 400 Picks
Tyler Reddick under 27.5 NASCAR points (14th or worse with no stage wins)
Martinsville is a unique track, meaning we should be focusing more on past results there rather than form early in the current season. Reddick has piled up top-10 finishes to this point, but he's finished better than 16th just once in eight tries at Martinsville. In the fall race of 2023, he was in the top-15 for just 12 percent of laps and ended up with a driver rating of 54.0.
Chris Buescher under 30.5 NASCAR points (11th or worse with no stage wins)
Much like Reddick, Buescher has had an impressive run of top-10 finishes to start the season, and he looks ready to replicate his results from 2023. Martinsville has never been particularly kind to him though, as he's never posted a driver rating above 82.5 at the track and has only two top-10 finishes in 17 total races.
Chase Briscoe over 31.5 NASCAR points (ninth or better with no stage wins)
Briscoe is a new addition to the driver field on PrizePicks and it comes in the perfect week. Of the drivers with the 10 best average finishes at Martinsville in the last three seasons, there are only two non-"elite" drivers: Aric Almirola and Briscoe. With Almirola out of the picture in the Cup Series, that leaves Briscoe as the under-the-radar name to excel this weekend. Even in last year's subpar car, he ran in the top 15 for all 400 laps of the 2023 fall race, and in the spring, he had stage finishes of fifth and second while finishing with a rating of 125.8. Briscoe may not have enough to come away with a win, but he's a solid option for the over at his projection.
Joey Logano over 35.5 NASCAR points (fifth place or better with no stage wins)
I typically want to shy away from picking the overs on the top projections each week, but it can be fun to have some of the best and most well-known drivers on the card for the weekend. With that in mind, Logano would be my pick this Sunday. He has just one win at Martinsville, yet still has the best average finish at the track of any active driver in the last six trips there. In that span, he has three top-five finishes. Getting a coin flip chance of hitting the over at this projection is about all you can ask for.
