Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview: Superspeedway High Stakes

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

We return to racing under the lights this week. The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to where the season started this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The second Daytona race of the season was historically held July 4th week every year. However, a few seasons ago NASCAR shook up the schedule and has moved this thrilling night race to the penultimate race of NASCAR's regular season. This event will be the lead up to next week's cut race (Darlington) to get into the playoffs, NASCAR's Chase for the Cup. The added urgency to improve one's playoff position or to make it into the field will ratchet the pressure up to 11 on a 10-scale this Saturday night. 

Unlike the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series races under the lights for this dramatic and entertaining racing event. This will be the third superspeedway race of the 2024 season, so we should now begin to see some trends forming on these larger ovals. With the same aerodynamic package being used for the second time this season at Daytona, we hope to see some the same racing that made the Daytona 500 a competitive and exciting affair. If the drivers can duplicate the action we saw in April at Talladega, we should be in for a thrilling ride this Saturday night. The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season featured a whopping, season-high 72 lead changes among 23 different drivers for a very thrilling event. The Daytona 500 offered a somewhat comparable 41 lead changes, which was about the norm for the past four seasons at Daytona. We will see if more lead swaps will happen this weekend after two superspeedway races are in the bank with this car and rules package. The pack racing that superspeedways create lead to lots of lead changes and parity in these events. However, we also need to remember the 10 cars that DNF'd at Daytona in February is also a season high mark, and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too. So, we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing. We should be in for that same type of fireworks in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this weekend. With this event at Daytona being held at night it always introduces a new dynamic to this high stakes racing. While there are many parallels we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this spring for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the superspeedway ovals. This information will for the foundation of our picks for this week's race. We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway. While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at these huge tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis. The data shown below covers the last 19 years or 38 races at Daytona International Speedway.

Hendrick Motorsports' William Byron won this year's Daytona 500 in a bit of an upset. The victory made the veteran a first-time winner of the Great American Race but a two-time winner overall at Daytona. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet pulled off the upset that February afternoon with his brilliant pass of Ross Chastain in the final laps. Byron would keep everyone behind him until the white flag was displayed and then a wreck would bring out the final caution of the day, ending the race. The mayhem and jockeying behind Byron on the penultimate lap of the Daytona 500 made for a perfect situation for him, and he wasted no time seizing that opportunity. When the series traveled to Talladega in late April it was a total free-for-all, but Michael McDowell managed to lead the most laps with 36 before crashing out within sight of the finish line. Joey Logano would also lead 22 laps but would fade to 19th-place by the checkered flag. It would be Tyler Reddick walking away with that victory, thanks to some more last-lap heroics in the midst of mayhem. The theme so far in 2024 on superspeedway ovals has been brilliant moves, overtime finishes and last lap surprises by the eventual race winners.   

While he didn't win either race, Ross Chastain will be looking to make his mark this Saturday night. The Trackhouse Racing driver is still winless for the season and looking for that crucial victory to lock up a spot in the Chase for the Cup. Wallace was battling for the win in both Daytona and Talladega events, but he'd be the misfortunate victim in last-lap crashes while racing for the win. He led a combined 20 laps between both races and was a factor in both events, as well as a serious threat to win. Aside from Chastain, another winless driver looking to make headlines coming into Daytona is Bubba Wallace. He's currently in the Chase playoffs based on points but would love nothing more than the scratch the win column for the first time since 2022. Wallace is a three-time runner-up finisher at Daytona and has been oh so close to winning at the historic oval over his career. He finished fifth in the season-opening Daytona 500. Will the driver of the No. 23 Toyota be able to step up his game at Daytona? Those among many other questions will be answered this Saturday night. We'll take a look at recent history, and the 2024 Daytona 500 and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – This season's Daytona 500 victor has been the most proficient superspeedway performer of the last two seasons. In addition to Byron's win at Daytona, he has five Top-10 finishes in the last six big oval events and a stellar 9.8 average finish across the span. There's no denying it, Byron and the No. 24 team have been seen racing among the leaders each of the last two seasons at both Daytona and Talladega in the closing laps. There are other drivers with more career-long accomplishments in superspeedway racing, but Byron is the hot hand right now. Byron is now a two-time Daytona winner and he's finished runner-up at the track in 2019. He's crashed out of a lot of races at Daytona over the years, but he's making up for it big time right now.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star is a one-time Daytona winner and three-time Talladega winner. Logano has led 300 laps at Daytona with most of those coming since the 2019 season, so we're quite used to seeing the No. 22 Ford up front here. The veteran driver has been inconsistent this season, but Logano has performed well on his best tracks. Logano won the pole and led 45 laps in this season's Daytona 500 before luck would deal him a bad hand. With the playoffs fast-approaching it would seem this driver and team are getting their act together in a big way. Logano's expertise in superspeedway racing in the recent past speaks for itself heading into this 400-mile battle.  

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has three Daytona 500 victories dating back to 2016 and he boasts a respectable 32-percent Top-10 rate at this high stakes track. With over 675-career laps led at the Florida speedway, he knows all too well what it takes to race up front here and win. Hamlin is also a two-time Talladega winner and cracks the Top 10 there at a strong 43-percent rate. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is locked into the Chase playoff field, but he'd like to finish strong and carry some momentum into the upcoming Chase for the Cup playoffs. A win at Daytona would improve his playoff seeding and send a clear message to the field that Hamlin will be a force to contend with in the playoffs.       

Tyler Reddick – Coming off the big win at Michigan and riding an amazing seven-race Top-10 streak, Reddick is on fire coming to Daytona. The 23XI Racing star has a win and two runner-up finishes during his most recent heater and will be a factor in the outcome again Saturday night in Daytona. Reddick was strong in the season-opening Daytona 500 but crashed out in disappointment. He would rebound in a big way in April at Talladega, marching right into victory lane in the GEICO 500. Daytona International Speedway has not been his best track on the circuit, but Reddick has cracked the Top 5 twice in his last six starts. This driver and team are on an epic roll right now.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is a one-time Daytona winner (2016) and he finished runner-up in this event one year ago. He has close to 350 laps led for his career at the historic Florida oval. Keselowski's luck finishing these races in Daytona has been inconsistent in recent seasons, but his skill at this style of racing is undeniable. There are also signs that his Daytona luck is changing. The driver of the No. 6 Ford is a six-time winner at the similar oval in Talladega and he finished an impressive runner-up there in April. The owner/driver has been on the uptrend this season and has shown incredible speed in his last two superspeedway efforts. Keselowski has finished Top 5 in three of his last five events between Daytona and Talladega. He'll be in the mix to win this Saturday night.      

Alex Bowman – The only driver in the series to capture Top-5 finishes in the first two superspeedway events of the season is Bowman and his No. 48 Chevrolet team. He was an impressive runner-up finisher in the Daytona 500 and Bowman followed that up with a strong Top 5 at Talladega in April. Over the last two seasons this driver and team are cracking the Top 10 at a strong 67-percent rate in these superspeedway events and Bowman sports a 9.8 average finish over the span. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran is riding a three-race Daytona Top-10 streak into this weekend's action, and that has lifted his career Top-10 rate at the Florida oval to 38-percent. Bowman should be dependable with upside in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney won this event three years ago for his lone Daytona victory and he's a three-time winner at the big oval in Talladega. Over the past two seasons on the big ovals, Blaney has one win, one runner-up finish and three Top 10's for a good 50-percent Top-10 rate. The driver of the No. 12 Penske Racing Ford has had some bad luck at Daytona International Speedway in his last two starts, but he still sports a career 39-percent Top-10 rate at the high stakes oval. Blaney has been a top performer the last few seasons in this style of racing and will be a motivated threat to challenge for the win in Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400.            

Christopher Bell – Bell has really stepped up his game in superspeedway racing over the past two seasons. With two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes between Daytona and Talladega, he sports a good 50-percent Top-10 rate on the big ovals coming into this weekend. Bell qualified on the second row, led 22 laps and finished an impressive third-place in the Daytona 500. The experience of that performance should pay off Saturday night in the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Bell has finished Top 5 in two of his last three Daytona races, and that's a dramatic shift from his prior career performance at Daytona International Speedway. He'll be a top performer Saturday night under the lights.   

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott has never won at Daytona International Speedway but he's flirted closely with the honor in recent seasons. He was a back-to-back runner-up finisher here in 2020 and 2021 and Elliott has five Daytona Top 10's in his last eight starts at the track going into Saturday night's action. He's always tended to perform better in the summer race at the track rather than the Daytona 500. Elliott demonstrated that by finishing fourth in this event one year ago. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is a two-time winner at the similar oval in Talladega and he cracks the Top 10 at that oval at a strong 47-percent rate. Elliott will be racing among the leaders in the closing laps at Daytona.

Michael McDowell – The 2021 Daytona 500 winner is a sneaky fantasy racing play for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. McDowell won the outside pole for this year's Daytona 500 and was in the running to win before a late-race crash took him out. With eight-career Top 10's at the historic Florida oval, the Front Row Motorsports veteran boasts a decent 31-percent Top-10 rate at Daytona. Given the high stakes nature of this racing, that rate is pretty good and across several different race teams. McDowell showed that homerun potential again at Talladega in April. He won the pole and led 36 laps before a last-lap crash took him out of contention. This driver and team bring tons of knowhow and homerun potential into Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400.         

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner also checks in on the sleepers list this week. Cindric led 13 laps and battled for the win in the Daytona 500 earlier this season before a last-lap crash would push him outside the Top 20. The Penske Racing youngster has run into trouble in his last two superspeedway starts, but we fully believe he's capable of the big rebound with high ceiling potential at Daytona this weekend. He's led 44 combined laps in his last three superspeedway contests and finished a brilliant fifth-place at Talladega last fall. Cindric hasn't presented much fantasy value this season, but the big ovals are where he shines. This is the opportunity to use him in weekly fantasy lineup leagues.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has been the standard of consistency on the superspeedway ovals for the past couple seasons. He won this event one year ago and he typically leads laps and challenges for Top 10's on these big tracks. The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang has been locked-in on these big ovals. As to his career at Daytona, Buescher is a 41-percent Top-10 finisher at this high stakes track and that percentage has even been higher in his most recent visits. Two of his last three Daytona starts have netted Top-10 finishes (67-percent). This driver and team have battled some consistency issues of late, so we've marked Buescher down to the sleepers list this week. However, he brings a very high ceiling for performance to Daytona.       

Bubba Wallace – Wallace owns an amazing three runner-up and five Top-5 finishes in his 14-career starts at Daytona International Speedway. He's always fared better at this oval than the similar oval in Talladega, despite having won at Talladega. Wallace's 12.4 average finish across those 14 starts and 31 laps led speak to his excellence in superspeedway racing. The 23XI Racing veteran has had some tough luck on the superspeedway tracks this season, but last time Wallace was in Daytona he was very strong. He led 3 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500 and finished an impressive fifth-place in that event. Wallace has homerun potential in the Coke Zero 400 with his strong No. 23 Toyota.

Noah Gragson – The deep sleeper this week at Daytona International Speedway is Gragson and his No. 10 Ford team. The young driver has been sharp in 2024, grabbing ninth- and third-place finishes at Daytona and Talladega earlier this season. Gragson hasn't done that by accident. It's taken skill, a fast race car and good strategy to close the deal on those finishes. This young driver now has two Top-10 finishes in four-career starts at the historic Daytona race track. The sample size is small, but still impressive with a 50-percent Top-10 rate and respectable 17.3 average finish. Gragson has been hot this season on superspeedway ovals, and he's a name to roll in deeper tiers of weekly lineup leagues.   

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch has been typically a tough-luck driver in this form of racing, despite leading the driver rating average in the chart above. He's led a lot of laps and logged a lot of passes in his 38-career starts at Daytona International Speedway, so that's a big reason for his good driver rating. Finishes on the other hand have been tough to come by. His 32-percent career Top-10 rate at DIS isn't that bad, but his 18.5 average finish is not good either. Busch's luck this season has been tough, despite his good finish at Michigan this past weekend. His last three Daytona finishes of 25th-, 12th- and 27th-place work out to a 21.3 average finish. That mark would be likely what we see this Saturday night, and not nearly good enough for fantasy consideration.

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star has enjoyed success on many tracks, but superspeedway racing simply isn't his cup of tea. Larson's 20-career starts at Daytona have only netted five Top-10 finishes (25-percent) and his 22.1 average finish is more inflated than we'd like to see in a fantasy racing prospect. His nine DNF's at Daytona tell the tale and have led to that inflated average finish. In fact, the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has crashed out of four of his last six Daytona starts. Despite starting on the front row in four of those starts, the finishes simply haven't materialized. Larson is too high risk of a pick for the Coke Zero Sugar 400.    

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has historically been a tough-luck finisher in these superspeedway events, and the 2024 season has illustrated this fact. Truex finished 15th-place in the season opening Daytona 500 and 11th-place later in the spring at Talladega. Despite leading some laps between the two events, finishing strong has always been the problem for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota. For his career, Truex is only a 16-percent Top-10 finisher at Daytona International Speedway and the 21.2 average finish is much higher than we like to see in a driver. Truex is simply too inconsistent of a performer in this style of racing to be a dependable fantasy racing play.  

Ty Gibbs – The young driver of the No. 54 Toyota has been an inconsistent performer on the big ovals the last couple seasons. Gibbs finished 17th-place in the Daytona 500 and he was a subpar 22nd-place at Talladega. Poor qualifying efforts and a lack of speed to get to the front led to those finishes. Gibbs' four-career starts at Daytona International Speedway have yet to yield a Top 10. It has led to an inflated average finish of 22.5 for the young driver at Daytona International Speedway. He has similar stats at the Talladega oval with a 31.0 average finish and no Top-20 finishes in four starts. Clearly, superspeedway racing is not Gibbs' first love.