Brickyard 400 Preview: The Oval Returns

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

In the wake of Pocono Raceway weekend, we come to the yard of bricks this week. This Sunday the NASCAR Cup Series comes back to the historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway for this weekend's Brickyard 400. The Brickyard will host this prestigious stock car racing event on motor racing's most identifiable and iconic track. This will be the first season NASCAR has competed on the famed oval in Indianapolis since 2020. For the past three seasons NASCAR's top division raced only on the Grand Prix circuit at Indy. However, as a part of the 2024 scheduling shakeup, the Indianapolis oval was welcomed back to the schedule. The iconic four-turn track now returns to the regular season slate.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a rectangular oval with very flat banking all the way around. The straights are completely flat, and the four corners have banking that varies from 9 to 12 degrees. The track is very temperature sensitive, so constant adjustments to the race car are a must in order to keep up with the changing handling conditions throughout the event. In seasons past, Goodyear has been able to develop a great tire for stock cars at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so we expect solid racing and for tire wear not to be an issue this Sunday afternoon. The long green flag runs that are commonplace at Indy could bring the fuel-mileage factor into the strategy for this 400-mile event, so we'll need to keep that detail in the back of our minds when making our driver list this week. The rectangular oval has hosted 27 NASCAR Cup Series events to this point, so we have some very extensive data on how the drivers perform at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, albeit none of the data includes the newest generation stock car.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is perhaps the most unique track that the series visits each year. No other track on the circuit has enough comparable characteristics to draw even a modest comparison. The racing we just experienced at Pocono Raceway last weekend is probably the most similar characteristics to consider. Those drivers that dominated on the Tricky Triangle are likely to keep the momentum rolling this weekend at Indianapolis. Let's take a quick look at the loop stats for the last 16 Cup Series races at Indy. Since the NASCAR's top division only races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway once a season, this span will cover the last 16 years (omitting the seasons we have raced on the GP Circuit) and should give us a good statistical tool to evaluate the drivers for this weekend's Brickyard400 at the Brickyard. 

Chevrolet drivers and teams used to dominate the rectangular oval in Indiana. For years Chevy drivers piled up the trophies in this prestigious event. That all changed in 2015 and 2016 when Kyle Busch won back-to-back installments of the Brickyard 400 for then Toyota. In this event four years ago Ford star, Kevin Harvick, swept into Indianapolis victory lane for the second-straight season. In so doing, he gave Ford its third-consecutive Brickyard win. This is where we stand entering this weekend and renewing the tradition of racing on the oval. Toyota and Chevrolet have been locked out of victory lane here since 2017 and will be looking to snap Ford's three-race win streak at the oval.        

Even though Chevy and Toyota drivers have a golden opportunity for the upset, we can't overlook Ford's opportunity to upstage everyone again this weekend. Drivers like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski are more than capable of taking the win in this Sunday's Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis. At the moment, Toyota teams seem particularly dangerous.  With Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick racing so well, they are definitely the momentum plays this weekend. As for the bowtie camp, Kyle Larson and William Byron will once again be the top drivers from that manufacturer who can potentially spoil the Ford party. We'll take a look at the top contenders and the streaking drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, along with historical data in order to give you the drivers you need this weekend to dominate the Brickyard and your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has never won at Indianapolis, but he comes to the historic track in the best position of his career to win and kiss the yard of bricks. Coming off 31 laps led and a runner-up finish at the similar Pocono tri-oval last week, the Joe Gibbs Racing star is hot coming to Indianapolis this weekend. Hamlin has 230 laps led, one pole and five Top-10 finishes on the intermediate and larger ovals this season. The Brickyard has always played well to veteran drivers, and Hamlin is among the most senior in the series now. In his 15-career starts on the Indianapolis oval, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has collected eight Top-10 finishes (53-percent) and led 131 laps. Hamlin should be one of the top contenders to win the Brickyard 400.

William Byron – The Hendrick Motorsports driver is coming off a good weekend of racing at the Tricky Triangle. Byron qualified on the outside pole and finished a strong fourth-place at Pocono last Sunday. This will be his fourth-career start at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Byron should start to really capitalize on his experience at this historic oval.  Last season he piloted the No. 24 Chevrolet from deep in the starting grid and finished a surprising fourth-place in the 2019 Brickyard 400. That impressive drive up through the field is not lost in our memory. Byron and crew chief Rudy Fugle have led 66 laps and collected six Top 10's (75-percent) on the intermediate and larger ovals this season. He'll be a very dangerous driver Sunday at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Ryan Blaney – The driver of the No. 12 Ford has turned around his slow start to the season the mid and larger ovals with a sixth-place at Nashville a few weeks ago and a win this past week at Pocono Raceway. Blaney is surging coming into the Brickyard 400. He's not been a big performer at Indianapolis Motor Speedway over his career, but his next-to-last start at the oval netted 19 laps led and a strong seventh-place finish. To this point, that has been Blaney's best Brickyard performance. We're willing to bet he'll do much better than that this time. The reigning Cup Series champion and this race team are coming to life and capable of stringing some wins together.     

Joey Logano – Logano has pretty good Indianapolis numbers in his racing resume. He has eight total Top-10 finishes in 12 starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. That 67-percent rate is enviable among any driver in NASCAR's top division. He has also won a pole position and finished runner-up twice in his career at Indy. Although Logano has never won at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, his 80 laps led here and career 10.8 average finish at the track speak volumes. He was a strong Top-5 finisher at the similar sized oval in Pocono last weekend and rides that momentum into this Sunday's Brickyard 400. Logano pulled a surprising victory at Nashville a few weeks ago and could be another upset winner this week.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Tyler Reddick – One of the best performing drivers on the intermediate and larger ovals is Reddick this season. He has one win and six Top 10's (75-percent) and he has a whopping 248 laps led on these bigger ovals. He's trending well heading into this race with a four-race Top-10 streak and should be in a good position for this Brickyard 400. The 23XI Racing youngster has one prior start on the oval at Indianapolis and it was a solid eighth-place finish in 2020. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota raced among the leaders last Sunday at Pocono and collected a strong sixth-place finish in that event. We like the current look of this driver and team right now. Reddick could challenge for the win and certainly crack the Top 10 at Indianapolis.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski's seventh-place finish last weekend at Pocono was a confidence booster heading into Indy. Now, the driver of the No. 6 Ford will attempt to defend his turf as the Indianapolis winner of 2018 and runner-up finisher of 2017. Keselowski has 11-career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Those have yielded one win, three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes along with 108 laps led. After some mediocre racing at IMS earlier in his career, something has really flipped the switch on for Keselowski in more recent years at the hallowed grounds. At current performance levels he doesn't appear to have the inside track on winning Sunday afternoon, but you can bet Keselowski will be nipping at the heels of the leaders in the Brickyard 400.

Alex Bowman – Coming off a strong third-place finish at Pocono Raceway last Sunday, Bowman is firmly fixed in our sights. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been very consistent on the larger ovals with a 63-percent Top-10 rate and 12.6 average finish. That's a good precursor to what could happen in Sunday's Brickyard 400. He has five prior starts on the Indianapolis oval but with no real noteworthy performances. That may cause some fantasy racing players to pass on the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. However, we believe that would be a misjudgment and a mistake. Bowman has been over the target the last two races with a win and third-place finish.       

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs won an eye-opening pole at Pocono last weekend and he led a number of laps at the Tricky Triangle. He would suffer an engine failure late and that would derail a possible Top-10 finish. We believe the Joe Gibbs Racing youngster will show that same speed and squarely rebound at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this week. Gibbs will be making his Cup Series debut on the oval at Indianapolis this weekend, so we don't have much to go on from a stats side. Still, the intermediate and big ovals have been good to the driver of the No. 54 Toyota. The two pole positions and 137 laps led on the bigger ovals are eye-catching statistics.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Indianapolis & solid upside

Chase Elliott – With a victory and four Top-10 finishes on the intermediate and larger ovals this season, Elliott has been a steady performer on these tracks. He's coming off a solid ninth-place finish at Pocono Raceway this past weekend and that's likely a very good target to look for at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Elliott doesn't have stellar stats the historic oval, but his last two finishes there prior to NASCAR's break from racing the oval were ninth- and 11th-place finishes in 2019 and 2020. The Hendrick Motorsports star should pick up right where he left off considering his recent level of performance. Elliott ended a minor slump with his good drive at Pocono this past Sunday.

Christopher Bell – Bell wasn't a world beater at Pocono this past weekend, earning a reasonable 12th-place finish, so we've slid him into the sleepers list this week. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been a bit up-and-down on the bigger ovals this season but we can't overlook his Charlotte win and sixth-place at Kansas. Those two performances alone give him a boost for the return to the Indianapolis oval. Bell has just one prior start on the oval since he was a rookie driver in 2020. He qualified near the rear of the field but raced up to an impressive 12th-place finish in his only Brickyard 400. We believe he'll have some sleeper value Sunday on the yard of bricks.      

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has been a bit inconsistent his last few races, so he slides into the sleepers list this week. He is coming off a strong eighth-place finish at the Tricky Triangle this past week and that's reason for optimism for Indianapolis. He doesn't have great stats at the Indy oval, but he does have a whopping 16 starts which puts him among some elite company as far as experience. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been reasonably good on the intermediate and larger tracks this season, including his fourth-place finish at Kansas. We believe that makes him an upside fantasy candidate for the Brickyard 400.   

Bubba Wallace – With Wallace's 10th-place finish at Pocono Raceway last weekend, he's putting up good numbers on the bigger ovals this season. His last four finishes on these ovals have netted seventh-, 11th-, seventh- and 10th-place for a strong 8.8 average finish over the recent span. He rides that momentum into Indiana this week and looks to renew acquaintances with the oval at Indy. The 23XI Racing veteran has three prior Cup Series starts the track and has two Top-10 finishes in those efforts with his old race team at Richard Petty Motorsports. That's got to be a confidence booster heading back to racing on the oval after four years off.     

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran pulled off a good 11th-place finish this past week in Pocono and reversed some recent struggles. Buescher now has fifth- and 11th-place finishes in his last two larger oval events and looking to keep it rolling at the Brickyard. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has five-career starts at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway oval, so he's not short on experience. He only has one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in those starts, but he's come a long way in the four years that have passed since the Cup Series last raced on the oval at Indy. This driver and team's performance of late indicate an easy Top 15 in the Brickyard 400.   

Josh Berry – The driver in the lower tier of the driver pool that we believe will outperform this week is Berry and his No. 4 Ford team. The Stewart Haas Racing driver qualified well at Pocono last week, lining up fifth on the starting grid. Berry would lead 8 laps and race well before shuffling out and fading to 20th-place. Still, the speed and excellence of the car were there to push a Top-10 performance. Berry has never raced on the Indianapolis oval, so we're taking a bit of a leap of faith this weekend. However, he and his team have nabbed two Top 10's in the last five races and showed much improvement in performance of late.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is a two-time winner at the rectangular oval coming into this weekend's Brickyard400 at the Brickyard. Busch has two victories and two runner-up finishes at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since the 2012 season. The Brickyard has held a lot of success for him over the years. However, Busch and the No. 8 Chevrolet team are in complete disarray. With just one Top 10 in the last nine races, the veteran driver has slumped to 18th-place in the driver standings. The big ovals have been a real problem with a 21.4 average finish and his crash and DNF at Pocono this past week looming large coming into the Brickyard 400.   

Erik Jones – Despite the Top-15 finish for Jones this past week at Pocono Raceway, we're still calling for the fade for the veteran Legacy Motor Club driver. He's been a bit rough on the big ovals this season with a subpar 22.0 average finish. Jones has four prior starts on the Indy oval and three of those have been crashes and DNF's vs. one Top 10. That average finish is working out to a disappointing 26.3. The veteran driver of the No. 43 Toyota has just never looked comfortable on this track and now he's making a return after four years of not racing on the oval. We believe there are better fantasy options in the lower tier of drivers this weekend.

Jimmie Johnson – Despite his four-career Indianapolis victories and seven-career Top 10's at the Brickyard, Johnson is a driver to pass on this weekend. Since returning to NASCAR two seasons ago, the star driver has struggled to acclimate to the new generation stock car. Johnson's eight starts since returning have yet to yield a Top-25 finish and his 30.4 average finish this season along (over five starts) is less than encouraging. Despite whatever old magic the seven-time champion had at the Brickyard in the past, those glory days are long since gone. He's a driver to avoid in fantasy lineups this weekend for the Brickyard 400.

Michael McDowell – McDowell is a recent winner on the Indy GP circuit, but racing on the oval is an entirely different situation. His 11-career starts on the oval have netted just one Top-10 finish and a 25.8 average finish over his career. The Front Row Motorsports veteran has been a tough-luck finisher on the bigger ovals this season with two Top 10's vs. three DNF's and a subpar 23.3 average finish. His most recent 24th-place effort at Pocono Raceway this past Sunday is likely the marker for Sunday's Brickyard 400. McDowell is a driver to avoid in salary cap and weekly lineup games.