Bass Pro Shops Night Race Preview: World's Fastest Half Mile

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend we return to the famous short track in Bristol, Tennessee for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. The high-contact, short track action under the lights is one of the most popular races in the schedule. It's been a long, hard haul since race number five of the season, which was the last time NASCAR's top division visited Thunder Valley. Since that time, we've seen Tyler Reddick win the regular season championship. We've seen Brad Keselowski rediscover victory lane at Darlington after a long dry spell. We've seen Harrison Burton's surprise win at Daytona. We've also seen Austin Dillon's upset victory at Richmond as well as Chris Buescher's return to victory lane this past weekend at Watkins Glen. So, a lot has happened since the NASCAR Cup Series last visited the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway. 

This visit to Bristol Motor Speedway will be different than the recent past. The late-summer Bristol race is no longer a part of the regular season schedule, but now makes up the first segment of the Chase for the Cup playoffs. This is the third race of the Chase and the cutoff to advance into the second round of the NASCAR playoffs. To advance, drivers simply have to win or be below the cut line of the Top 12 in the championship points. That added urgency to advance will really crank up the pressure for this 500-lap battle. Tensions will be high, and so will be the pressure to advance and stay in the battle for the 2024 championship.    

In preparing our fantasy race teams this week, we'll need to take a close look at the last 19 years at Bristol Motor Speedway in order to collect some recent data on the drivers. The loop stats from these 35 races will be very useful. This span will cover Bristol's recent history and should bear some great data. In forming this week's driver list we'll also pay some attention to current hot streaks. Drivers who raced well at Richmond should carry that momentum into the World's Fastest Half Mile this Saturday night. Here are the loop stats for the top-performing Bristol drivers, sorted by driver rating. 

This season's first race at Bristol Motor Speedway in March of this year, was a return to the pavement after three seasons of running the Bristol spring race on the dirt. There were 36 cars on the track that day, but it would evolve into a two-driver shootout. Joe Gibbs Racing teammates, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. would dominate with Hamlin eventually coming out on top. However, there were many surprises in the finishing order that day. There was an abundance of caution flags (nine total) due to accidents over the 500 scheduled laps. The win would be Hamlin's second in-a-row at Bristol Motor Speedway and his fourth-career victory on the high banks of BMS. At lot has changed in the manufacturer hierarchy since that race, so it will be interesting to see if Hamlin and Toyota can hold onto their grip of the Bristol oval or if the recently hot Ford camp of drivers can supplant them at the top.

If we look back at the previous four races on the concrete at Bristol, we see that each of the three manufacturers have reached victory lane. Toyota is leading the way with three victories, followed by Ford and Chevrolet with one each. With this race serving as the cutoff to the Round of 12 in the Chase, we're going to see a lot of contact and pushing this week. Manners will go out the window, and it will be a mad scramble to advance in the Chase for the Cup. Let's take a look at the historical loop stats and recent hot streaks and see if we can clear up the picture and give you the drivers you need this weekend to conquer the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – With three short track victories already this season, including the race earlier this year at Bristol, Hamlin is poised to make a big splash at Bristol Motor Speedway this Saturday night. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is a four-time Bristol winner and most recently this spring. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 at a strong 32-percent rate and he's led close to 1,200 laps for his career at this half-mile oval. He tends to step it up a notch for the events under the lights, so optimism in that trend should be even higher. The Joe Gibbs Racing star qualified on the outside pole and won this event one year ago. With the next round of the playoffs approaching, Hamlin is capable of a statement win this weekend in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Kyle Larson – Larson won this event three years ago to post his first-career Bristol Motor Speedway victory. That performance coupled with three runner-up finishes at BMS since 2018 make the Hendrick Motorsports star a very dangerous driver on the high banks of this short track. He rides a four-race Bristol Top-5 streak into this weekend's action, including 889 career laps led at the World's Fastest Half Mile. Larson has three poles, two runner-up and five Top-5 finishes this season on the circuit's short tracks, so the driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet is currently capable of pulling off a big performance. With the playoffs well underway, the importance of a win at Bristol can't be understated. Larson will drive with utmost purpose in this 500-lap battle under the lights.

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been racing extremely well of late and is coming off the big win at Watkins Glen. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has been very consistent in 2024 on the circuit's short tracks. He has four Top 10's (50-percent) and a stout 11.4 average finish on the bull rings this season. Buescher won this event two seasons ago and rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into Saturday night's battle. Since moving to Roush in 2020, it's been a complete reversal of this veteran driver's fortunes at this historic short track. The No. 17 Ford team is so hot right now you can't count Buescher out of contending for the win at any track in the series.

Christopher Bell – Bell is coming off two strong short track performances in recent weeks. He won at New Hampshire in a dominant performance and dominated at times to finish sixth-place recently at Richmond. The JGR youngster combined to lead 271 laps in those two races alone. Bell will now sharpen his focus on a Bristol short track that has given him some good performances in his brief NASCAR career. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into this Saturday night and he owns one win and one runner-up finish in four-career Xfinity Series starts at the famous half-mile oval. Bell is having a very good season on the short tracks, and he should challenge for the win in Saturday night's playoff race under the lights at Bristol.     

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ross Chastain – Chastain has seemingly turned his season around on the short tracks. His last two outings have fetched 10th- and fifth-place finishes at Loudon and Richmond. There's a lot of fantasy racing upside with the Trackhouse Racing No. 1 team this Saturday night. Chastain earned a strong sixth-place finish in this event two seasons ago. That was his career-best finish at the track to this point. The veteran driver was a Top-15 finisher in the Food City 500 in March. Despite the fact that Chastain is not in the Chase playoffs and not racing for the championship, he will likely be one of the top spoilers in this important playoff race.  

William Byron – Byron has been a bit inconsistent on the short tracks in 2024, so we've slotted him in the solid plays list this week. A win early in the season at Martinsville and a runner-up finish in the summer at Iowa are the highlights. However, more recent performances at Loudon and Richmond have been subpar. Bristol Motor Speedway has held marginal success for the young driver, but the good news is that it's all come in his last four starts at the half-mile oval. Byron has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in those efforts. The Hendrick Motorsports star had a rough outing there in the spring, but with the playoffs underway he should bounce back nicely. He'll factor in the outcome of the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has a long history at Bristol Motor Speedway. Keselowski has three wins, the most recent in 2020, in 26-career starts at the Tennessee short track. Recent outings have yielded eighth- and third-place finishes in his last two efforts. Keselowski has been pretty dialed-in at BMS in this most recent span of races. Those finishes have elevated his Top-10 rate at Bristol to 39-percent. Short tracks have been a good set of ovals for the No. 6 Ford team this season. Keselowski has four Top-10 finishes in the eight events (50-percent) and a respectable 15.4 average finish. The veteran driver has a lot on the line with the playoffs underway, and Keselowski will race with that urgency.

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet rides a three-race Bristol Top-10 streak into East Tennessee this weekend. Elliott has 14-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and they've yielded eight Top-10 finishes or a 57-percent Top-10 rate. Our major reason for optimism this weekend for the Hendrick Motorsports driver is twofold. Elliott has been a steady performer on short tracks this season with a strong 8.8 average finish and 75-percent Top-10 rate. The secondary reason is that he's been a very consistent and strong performer over his career at Bristol Motor Speedway. There is great potential for Elliott this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway.     

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Bristol & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Bristol Motor Speedway has been an oval of inconsistency for the young driver. With only five-career Top 10's, Blaney's Top-10 rate at BMS is just 33-percent. However, four of those have come in his last nine starts at the Tennessee short track. Blaney won the pole and led 14 laps earlier this season but faded to a 16th-place finish in the Food City 500. He normally brings good speed into these short track races as evidenced by his win earlier this summer at Iowa and his four Top-10 short track finishes (50-percent). With playoff advancement on the line and defense of last season's championship at stake, we believe Blaney and his team will rise to the challenge at Bristol.             

Alex Bowman – Bowman will look to comfortably advance into the Round of 12 of the Chase with a steady performance Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has been an inconsistent performer at BMS over the years, however, two of his last four trips to the Tennessee short track have yielded Top-5 finishes. Bowman started 29th on the grid in March's Food City 500 but had no trouble racing to an impressive third-place finish in that short track battle. He and the No. 48 Chevrolet team have been decent short track performers in 2024 with a 50-percent Top-10 rate on the bull rings and a reasonable 16.1 average finish. Bowman should be a consistent performer in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. 

Ty Gibbs – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver has been a pedestrian short track performer this season (38-percent Top-10 rate), however, Bristol Motor Speedway is a bit of a different animal. Gibbs has loved this place ever since promoting to NASCAR's top division. He has two Top-10 finishes in his three-career starts at the Tennessee short track. Gibbs has led a whopping 239 combined laps in just his last two Bristol starts alone. He led 137 laps in March's Food City 500 and flirted with victory before fading to an eventual ninth-place. Gibbs has possible playoff advancement/elimination on the line, so we expect to see the very best out of the No. 54 Toyota team this Saturday night.    

Martin Truex Jr. – Bristol has always been the Achilles Heel track for this veteran driver over the years. Truex's career numbers at Bristol Motor Speedway are less-than-inspiring. He has only five Top-10 finishes in 34 starts. All that toil has lowered his Bristol Top-10 rate to a lowly 15-percent. However, the luck seems to be turning around at Bristol for the driver of the No. 19 Toyota. Truex has earned two of those Top 10's in just his last four starts. He led 54 laps and finished a Bristol career-best second-place in March's Food City 500. That experience will serve him well in this weekend's make-or-break playoff race. Truex has been a consistent 63-percent Top-10 finisher on short tracks in the 2024 season.          

Michael McDowell – The veteran Front Row Motorsports driver was a bust at Bristol Motor Speedway for a lot of years. However, McDowell turned things around since the 2020 season. In his last six starts at the Tennessee short track the driver of the No. 34 Ford has earned two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes. The average finish across that span stands at a very respectable 12.7.  In March's Food City 500 McDowell qualified a surprising seventh and battled to an 11th-place finish. This driver and team have been a Top-15 finisher in the last two short track events (Loudon and Richmond) and they should do so again Saturday night in this 500-lap battle under the lights.     

Chase Briscoe – The driver of the No. 14 Ford has been a reasonable short track performer this season. Briscoe has earned three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on the short track circuit in 2024. Most recently he earned a very impressive runner-up finish at Loudon, New Hampshire. His average finish on the bull rings stands at a decent 15.0. Briscoe has four-career Cup Series starts to his credit and three Top-15 finishes in those efforts. Not eye-popping to be sure, but steady and reliable. He drove his Ford Mustang to a respectable 13th-place finish in March's Food City 500. Briscoe should achieve at least that in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race.  

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Tyler Reddick – Reddick has been a steady performer on the short tracks this season, however, Bristol is a completely different animal for the 23XI Racing star. He has six-career starts on the Tennessee short track and just one Top-10 finish to his credit (17-percent). In March of this year Reddick labored to a 30th-place finish in the Food City 500. That pulled his career average finish at this track down to 20.3. Despite his recent hot streak and success on the other short tracks, we believe this driver and team are ones to fade in this very important playoff race under the lights. Keep Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team in mind for Kansas Speedway in two weeks. 

Kyle Busch – The eight-time Bristol winner has had his struggles at one of his better short tracks in recent outings. Busch has failed to crack the Top 15 in his last four Bristol Motor Speedway starts. He hasn't finished on the lead lap in a single one of those four events. The Richard Childress Racing star has had a really rough season on the bull ring circuit. Busch has just one Top 10 in eight starts on tracks one-mile in size and less (13-percent) and his average finish stands at a subpar 21.1. This level of performance is a stark contrast against one of the best short track resumes in modern NASCAR history. We don't expect this trendline to change for the No. 8 Chevrolet team this Saturday night in Bristol.  

Joey Logano – Logano is in a similar position to Kyle Busch. He hasn't cracked the Top 20 in his last three Bristol starts, and despite being a two-time winner at the World's Fastest Half-Mile, Logano has struggled. March's Food City 500 saw the Penske Racing star qualify fourth on the grid but finish a distant 22nd-place after 500 laps in the high banked oval. Logano's recent struggles have dropped his career Top-10 rate at BMS to a 36-percent rate which is lower than what we normally recommend. His recent short track outings have netted 32nd- and 19th-place finishes at Loudon and Richmond. That's not exactly a ringing endorsement of Logano and the No. 22 Ford team this weekend. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Aside from a 2014 to 2018 hot streak at Bristol Motor Speedway, Stenhouse has struggled for much of his career at the Tennessee short track. With seven Top 10's in 20-career starts, his Top-10 rate stands at 35-percent. He's cracked the Top 10 just once in his last nine Bristol starts, which is a rate well below his career average. Stenhouse is much more well know for his superspeedway success and some success on intermediate ovals. This season's short track statistics bear this fact out. In eight starts on the NASCAR bull rings, Stenhouse has managed just two Top 10's (25-percent) and an inflated 24.9 average finish. His start earlier this season at Bristol was a disappointing 33rd-place finish, 5 laps down to the leaders.