It's been quite a while since we've seen such a competitive fight card on paper, as only three of the bouts on this Saturday's 13-fight slate feature a favorite at (-200) or better. We'll take a look at each contest across three platforms, including a wrestle-boxer who has yet to reach his potential and a Contender Series veteran who could set the ring on fire in his debut. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
AJ Dobson ($7,300)
I've always liked Dobson as a wrestler with underrated boxing and fast hands. While his first two UFC opponents were a bit too strong in one discipline or the other, he looks to be in a good spot against Edmen Shahbazyan, as strong grapplers have led to the once-promising prospect losing four of his last five bouts in the Octagon. While I don't expect Dobson to win on the feet, he is strong enough in the pocket to hold his own while looking for attempts to take the fight to the ground.
Trey Ogden ($8,600)
Ogden fights at such a slow pace that it's hard to get him on the optimal lineup in the best circumstances, but he may have drawn just the right opponent in Kurt Holobaugh, who will constantly press forward and force the action. Holobaugh isn't a bad grappler in his own right, but his 50 percent takedown defense rate means he should be in bottom position quite often. Ogden's defense should keep him safe from the big shots of Holobaugh at range as he looks to grind "The Hurt" en route to a respectable score.
Julian Erosa ($7,300)
Generally speaking, fighters who can't put Erosa away get dragged into deep water and finished. I've always liked Ricardo Ramos as a fighter, but he has shown up flat inside the cage far too many times for me to trust him against someone like "Juicy J," who will scrap with his last ounce of strength. Over 15 minutes, I expect Erosa will get the better of the Brazilian everywhere, including the grappling department.
Billy Quarantillo ($8,600)
Youssef Zalal's return to the UFC after a successful run on the regional scene will likely be spoiled by Quarantillo, who will look to stay as busy as possible from range while setting up takedown attempts. Zalal is a powerful kickboxer but works too slowly to survive the onslaught of someone like "Billy Q," and I don't trust that his grappling will hold up over three rounds.
Karl Williams ($9,300)
Justin Tafa and his brother swapped opponents following an injury to "Bad Man" that forced him out of UFC 298, but I doubt any member of the Tafa family would have much for Williams, who is a strong grappler and can keep a nice pace for a heavyweight. Tafa is a solid kickboxer, but he has never faced a grappler who could even be called competent in his UFC career, leaving me doubtful that he will know how to deal with Williams.
Cameron Saaiman ($7,900)
The upright posture, penchant for taking damage, and inexperience of Payton Talbott led me to take a shot on his opponent as a huge underdog. I was about ready to take my victory lap until Nick Aguirre gassed out in Round 2 following his dominant first frame. Saaiman is a much more composed fighter than Aguirre, who can not only wrestle and grapple effectively but also has the tools to compete with Talbott at range. I think this a a fantastic spot for a small dog play, as toughness alone won't be enough to get the undefeated fighter through this one.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Michael Parkin UNDER 50.5 Significant Strikes, Andre Lima OVER 56.5 Significant Strikes, and Darya Zheleznyakova UNDER 67.5 Significant Strikes
Low-level heavyweight fights tend to be something of a binary in that they either finish quickly or turn into slogging tests of endurance. I strongly believe Parkin and Mohammed Usman will put on the second kind of bout, as both men will look for grappling exchanges and get tied up in the clinch for the majority of the contest. It may be true that two grapplers often wind up in a kickboxing match, but these two men have only been finished once in a combined 20 professional fights, so both should be tough enough to ride out any early adversity.
Lima and Igor da Silva are similar fighters, as both will look to get in the pocket and throw shots. This fight will largely depend on who can win the pressure battle, but either way, we can be sure that strikes will be landed on both sides. It should also be noted that this is a matchup between two men who have never been beaten, let alone finished. This being the case, I am expecting a striking battle that results in an easy eclipse of our total.
The fight between Zheleznyakova and Montserrat Rendon will be the classic striker versus grappler matchup. As Zheleznyakova is an accomplished kickboxer, Montserrat won't want to stand at range for very long. This should lead to some urgency as Montserrat tries to force exchanges, which will see plenty of time get eaten off of the clock.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Fernando Padilla OVER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Rose Namajunas OVER 21.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Padilla's length and ferocity make him tough to deal with, but we saw how uncomfortable Kyle Nelson made him in the latter stages of their fight just by taking chances and throwing big strikes. Luis Pajuelo will be happy to oblige, which could once again freeze the Mexican fighter and make keeping distance the top priority. If this happens, then we will likely get a decision as both men try and force two distinctly different fights.
Namajunas seems to have abandoned her submission grappling, as she hasn't won a fight via tapout since her victory over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in 2017. This means that unless she's recording a spectacular knockout, she is focusing on her distance management to pick opponents off from range. I expect Rose's fights to remain methodical going forward, even when she is facing a fighter as active as Amanda Ribas.
Bets to Consider
Steven Nguyen to win via KO/TKO (+470)
A line this wide on a fighter as aggressive as Nguyen seems like a prime target, as we have already seen Jarno Errens hurt by opponents in the UFC cage. Errens tends to rely on his athleticism, but that should be of little help in this one, as Nguyen's hands are significantly faster. While "The Ninja" is susceptible to leg kicks, we saw him take an incredible amount of punishment before stopping his opponent on the Contender Series, which gives me confidence that he will be able to outlast the more experienced fighter if he has to.
Cody Gibson to win via KO/TKO (+600)
It's possible that I have a taste for big KO props after being so cruelly robbed of a finish that seemed imminent in the fight between Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa last week, but the fact is that I have simply never liked Miles Johns inside the cage. As a slow, musclebound grappler who doesn't use his wrestling as often as he should, Johns' fights tend to move at a glacial pace, being decided on either effective grappling or who landed a few more hard shots. By contrast, Gibson will never stop striking from the opening bell and should be able to employ his own grappling to exhaust his opponent further. Gibson was still standing after taking a beating from Brad Katona in the third round of their fight, which leaves no doubt in my mind that he will be the one left standing if this fight becomes a slugfest.
