This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Vegas 106
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 106 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 137-57-1 ~ Dog Picks 23-14-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Sodiq Yusuff +120
Bet of the Week Record: 10-5-1 +785
DFS Lock of the Week: Nursulton Ruziboev - 12-2
Fanduel Captain: Camillo/Ruziboev
Gilbert Burns (22-8-0) v. Michael Morales (17-0-0)
Gilbert Burns (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains with the Treining Lab
- Record: 6 wins by KO/TKO, 9 by submission, 7 by decision
- Former UFC Welterweight Title Challenger
Michael Morales (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 79" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Entram Gym
- Record: 12 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 4 by decision
- Undefeated prospect with a 17-0 record
DFS Perspective: Morales is an undefeated prospect with a 17-0 record, known for his striking and finishing ability. Burns, a former title challenger, brings a wealth of experience and a dangerous ground game. If Morales can keep the fight standing, his reach and striking could give him the edge. However, Burns' grappling and experience in five-round fights make him a formidable opponent. This matchup presents a classic striker vs. grappler scenario, making both fighters viable GPP options.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Morales
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Paul Craig (17-9-1) v. Rodolfo Bellato (12-2-1)
Paul Craig (GPP Dart Throw)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Higher Level Martial Arts
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 13 by submission, 0 by decision
- Former BAMMA Light Heavyweight Champion
Rodolfo Bellato (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'3" – Reach: 77" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at KO Squad MMA
- Record: 7 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 1 by decision
- Known for explosive striking and finishing ability
DFS Perspective: Bellato's aggressive striking and finishing ability make him a strong GPP play. Craig is dangerous on the ground, but Bellato's power and reach advantage could be the difference if he keeps the fight standing. If Craig can't get it to the mat early, Bellato's pressure might overwhelm him. I favor Bellato's upside in this spot.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Bellato
Sodiq Yusuff (13-4-0) v. Mairon Santos (15-1-0)
Sodiq Yusuff (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Team Lloyd Irvin
- Record: 6 wins by KO/TKO, 0 by submission, 7 by decision
- Known for explosive striking and finishing ability
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Chute Boxe Diego Lima
- Record: 8 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 3 by decision
- Riding a 5-fight win streak
DFS Perspective: Yusuff's explosive striking and finishing ability make him a strong GPP play. Santos brings a solid win streak and a slight reach advantage, which could pose challenges. However, Yusuff's experience and power give him the edge in this matchup. If he can dictate the pace and keep the fight standing, Yusuff should be able to secure the victory.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Yusuff
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Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2) v. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6-0)
Nursulton Ruziboev (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 6'5" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Legion Fight Club
- Record: 10 wins by KO/TKO, 8 by submission, 3 by decision
- Riding a 6-fight win streak
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Balance Studios
- Record: 5 wins by KO/TKO, 5 by submission, 6 by decision
- Known for a well-rounded skill set and durability
DFS Perspective: I like Ruziboev in this spot. Stoltzfus is durable and well-rounded, but Ruziboev's aggression and ability to finish make him a real threat. If he can dictate the pace and keep the fight standing, he could find a finish. Solid GPP option with upside.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Ruziboev
Julian Erosa (31-11-0) v. Melquizael Costa (23-7-0)
Julian Erosa (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Xtreme Couture
- Record: 12 wins by KO/TKO, 14 by submission, 5 by decision
- Known for high-volume striking and submission skills
Melquizael Costa (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Chute Boxe
- Record: 7 wins by KO/TKO, 8 by submission, 8 by decision
- Aggressive striker with finishing ability
DFS Perspective: I'm on Costa in this spot. Erosa is experienced and tough, but he's also hittable and tends to get drawn into brawls. Costa's pressure and finishing ability make him a strong GPP target here. If he lands clean early, this could be a quick night.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Costa
Matheus Camilo (9-2-0) v. Gabe Green (11-5-0)
Matheus Camilo (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Xtreme Couture
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 3 by decision
- Promotional newcomer with finishing ability
Gabriel Green (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Switch
- Trains at Tracy Hess' Subfighter MMA
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 6 by submission, 1 by decision
- Known for aggressive striking and durability
DFS Perspective: Camilo's finishing ability and reach advantage make him a high-upside GPP play -- someone you might want to "like" or lock in on our DraftKings UFC DFS Lineup Optimizer. Green is aggressive and durable, but Camilo's power could be the difference if he keeps the fight standing. If Green can push the pace and utilize his experience, he might grind out a decision or snag an early stoppage himself. However, I lean towards Camilo's potential for an early finish in this matchup.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Camilo
Jared Gordon (20-7-0) v. Thiago Moises (19-8-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Sanford MMA
- Record: 7 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 11 by decision
- Known for relentless pace and durability
Thiago Moises (Mid-Range GPP play)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at American Top Team
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 8 by submission, 7 by decision
- Former RFA Lightweight Champion
DFS Perspective: This matchup pits Gordon's relentless pace against Moises's technical prowess. Gordon is known for pushing the pace and wearing down opponents. However, Moises's submission skills and technical striking give him the edge if he can control the fight's tempo. Given Moises's finishing ability, he presents a higher upside for GPP lineups.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Moises
Connor Matthews (7-3-0) v. Yadier del Valle (8-0-0)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Switch
- Trains at New England Cartel
- Record: 1 wins by KO/TKO, 5 by submission, 1 by decision
- Former USAF combat controller with strong grappling background
Yadier Del Valle (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Gracie Barra Houston
- Record: 2 wins by KO/TKO, 2 by submission, 4 by decision
- Undefeated prospect known for relentless pressure and well-rounded skills
DFS Perspective: Del Valle enters this bout as a significant favorite, showcasing a relentless pace and a well-rounded skill set. While Matthews brings a strong grappling background, his recent performances have raised concerns about his durability and adaptability at the UFC level. Del Valle is expected to control the fight, but given his methodical approach, this bout may not yield high DFS scores. Consider Del Valle as a mid-range GPP option, but temper expectations in DFS.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Del Valle
Luana Santos (8-2-0) v. Tainara Lisboa (7-2-0)
Luana Santos (Mid-range GPP/Cash option)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at 011 MMA Team
- Record: 1 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 3 by decision
- Known for aggressive striking and forward pressure
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at DAMAS 013
- Record: 3 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission, 1 by decision
- Muay Thai specialist with finishing ability
DFS Perspective: I'm higher on Santos in this matchup. Her forward pressure and activity on the feet should allow her to outwork Lisboa across three rounds. She's live in GPPs due to her pace, but also makes a strong case for cash contests thanks to her work rate and durability. Expect her to push the pace and rack up volume over time.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Santos
Denise Gomes (10-3-0) v. Elise Reed (8-4-0)
Denise Gomes (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at GAEA Project
- Record: 6 wins by KO/TKO, 0 by submission, 4 by decision
- Riding a two-fight win streak
- Height: 5'3" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Kickside Martial Arts
- Record: 2 wins by KO/TKO, 0 by submission, 6 by decision
- Former CFFC Strawweight Champion
DFS Perspective: Gomes is the side I'm on here. She's shown improved striking and has the power advantage. Reed is tough and could drag this out, but I expect Gomes to control the pace and land the more impactful shots. Consider her a solid GPP play with moderate scoring potential.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Gomes
Hyun Sung Park (9-0-0) v. Carlos Hernandez (10-4-0)
Hyun Sung Park (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at MMA Story
- Record: 4 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 1 by decision
- Aggressive striker with finishing ability
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 67" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at VFS Academy
- Record: 0 win by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 6 by decision
- Known for technical striking and durability
DFS Perspective: I'm very high on Park in this spot. He's faster, more technical, and has the edge everywhere this fight goes. Hernandez is tough, but Park's ability to mix it up with crisp striking and sharp grappling should be too much. He makes for a strong GPP and cash option.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Park
Luana Pinheiro (11-4-0) v. Tecia Pennington (14-7-0)
- Height: 5'2" – Reach: 62" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at BH Rhinos
- Record: 2 wins by KO/TKO, 5 by submission, 3 by decision
- Aggressive grappler with finishing ability
Tecia Pennington (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 5'1" – Reach: 60" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Pound 4 Pound
- Record: 1 win by KO/TKO, 1 by submission, 12 by decision
- Known for high-volume striking and durability
DFS Perspective: This matchup features Pennington's high-volume striking against Pinheiro's aggressive grappling. Pennington's durability and pace make her a solid option for cash contests. However, Pinheiro's finishing ability and submission skills provide a higher ceiling for GPP formats. If Pinheiro can close the distance and implement her grappling, she could secure an early finish. However, she has given us little to count on over the last three fights and should be considered a deep dart throw in GPP contests.
UFC Vegas 106 Pick: Pennington
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
