This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Vegas 105 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 105 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 93-39-1 ~ Dog Picks 19-8-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Vanessa Demopoulos +100 ~ 8-2-1 +915
DFS Lock of the Week: Torrez Finney - 9-1
Fanduel Captain: Torrez Finney
Vanessa Demopoulos (11-6-0) v. Talita Alencar (5-1-1)
Vanessa Demopoulos - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 59" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
Talita Alencar - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 58" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Although Demopoulos is not a high-level fighter, I do not see her having issues dispatching Alencar. Alencar has struggled in her two UFC matches against much worse competition. Demopoulos should have the edge on the feet and the mat. Her score will depend on how many takedowns she gets, making her more GPP than cash.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Demopoulos
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Victor Henry (24-7-0) v. Pedro Falcao (16-4-0)
Victor Henry - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~15 finishes in 24 wins
Pedro Falcao - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Falcao is getting a bump in competition, although he lost his UFC debut. He is good everywhere but not great. Henry should have the edge everywhere. He gets wild sometimes, so both guys should get ownership, but Henry is the play. The winner should score well for DFS in this fight.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Henry
Loma Lookboonmee (9-3-0) v. Istela Nunes (6-5-0)
Loma Lookboonmee - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 9 wins
Istela Nunes - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Nunes has lost all four of her UFC fights, three by early finish. Lookboonmee may not be a big finisher, but she should dominate this fight from start to finish. She could be a sneaky play for DFS between takedowns, control time and strikes.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Lookboonmee
Rhys McKee (13-6-1) v. Daniel Frunza (9-2-0)
Rhys McKee - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Daniel Frunza - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: McKee is another fighter who has lost all four of their UFC fights. He has looked good at times but inevitably falls flat. Frunza is making his UFC debut after a comeback win on the Contender Series. He is a dangerous striker, and an early knockout is likely. However, he must work on his striking defense to avoid trouble and move up in the division.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Frunza
Diana Belbita (15-9-0) v. Dione Barbosa (7-3-0)
Diana Belbita - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
Dione Barbosa - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Belbita will have the advantage on the feet, but I do not think she can keep it there long enough. Barbosa's improving striking is complementing her ground game well. A level change or a trip should be enough to get Belbita down, and she should dominate from there. Belbita has lost twice due to armbars, and it would not be surprising to see it happen again.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Barbosa
Davey Grant (16-7-0) v. Daniel Santos (12-2-0)
Davey Grant - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 16 wins
Daniel Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a high-octane fight between two active guys. Grant will have a slight edge on the feet, while Santos will have a considerable edge on the mat. This should be a popular fight for DFS, as the winner should score well. Santos has the higher ceiling and is the better play.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Santos
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Ode Osbourne (12-8-0) v. Luis Gurule (10-0-0)
Ode Osbourne - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 73" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Luis Gurule - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Osbourne has dropped three straight and is in jeopardy of being cut from the promotion. He draws a newcomer in Gurule, who won his Contender Series fight but showed terrible takedown defense. If Osbourne is wise, he will immediately shoot for takedowns. He has faced the better competition and is worth the play here.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Osbourne
Torrez Finney (10-0-0) v. Robert Valentin (11-4-0)
Torrez Finney - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Robert Valentin - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Valentin was not the least bit impressive in his UFC debut, and I do not expect him to be any better in his second fight. He is a dangerous finisher, so a GPP flier is worth a play, but Finney should have a field day on the mat. Finney finally gets his UFC debut after winning three consecutive Contender Series fights. He has incredible power and is an absolute animal on the mat. I expect several takedowns and a potential early finish for a huge DFS score.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Finney
Brad Tavares (20-11-0) v. Gerald Meerschaert (37-18-0)
Brad Tavares - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 20 wins
Gerald Meerschaert - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 35 finishes in 37 wins
DFS Perspective: Tavares has lost four of his last five, but I think this is where he gets back on track. Meerschaert is one of the best GPP plays on any slate due to his propensity for finishing fights, particularly when losing the fight. However, I expect Tavares to stuff enough takedowns to win a decision with volume.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Tavares
Kennedy Nzechukwu (14-5-0) v. Martin Buday (14-2-0)
Kennedy Nzechukwu - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 83" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Martin Buday - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight likely comes down to damage done. A knockout is always a probability with heavyweights, but both of these guys have been hesitant to let go in several fights. Nzechukwu has a considerable reach advantage, and I expect it to be the difference in the exchanges. I would not expect a high score from this fight without a finish.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Nzechukwu
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Cortavious Romious (9-3-0) v. Chang Ho Lee (10-1-0)
Cortavious Romious - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 68" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Chang Ho Lee - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This should provide a good test for Lee. It is a matchup he should win on paper, as he is better everywhere. However, Road to UFC fighters do not always match up well with fighters in the UFC or other promotions. Romious can make this interesting, but with pressure, I would not be surprised to see him get an early finish. However, I like how Lee matches up against him and expect him to get this done.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Lee
Pat Sabatini (19-5-0) v. Joanderson Brito (17-4-1)
Pat Sabatini - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Joanderson Brito - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This is likely a must-play for DFS, as someone is likely to finished early. Sabatini is a dangerous submission grappler but lacks the striking and chin to be much else. Brito can do it all but is reckless at times. Either guy could get this done and score well for DFS, but I like Brito in this spot.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Brito
Josh Emmett (19-4-0) v. Lerone Murphy (15-0-1)
Josh Emmett - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 19 wins
Lerone Murphy - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Emmett last fought over two years ago, recording a nasty knockout in the first round. He is now 40 and was coming off consecutive losses before that fight. Murphy won his seventh in a row and retained his zero after a dominant decision win in his most recent fight. He is not a huge finisher but has no glaring weakness and an exceptional fight IQ. Emmett will have his chances to record a knockout, but Murphy's skill set should prevail over five rounds.
UFC Vegas 105 Pick: Murphy
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
