This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Mexico City, Mexico on on Saturday, February 24. The main event of the card is a rematch, as Brandon Moreno takes on Brandon Royval at flyweight.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop, and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez (18-4) vs. Brian Ortega (15-3)
The co-main event of UFC Mexico City is also a rematch and will be five rounds, and I'm backing Yair Rodriguez to beat Brian Ortega.
Rodriguez and Ortega fought back in July of 2022, and it was the Mexican who won in the first round after Ortega dislocated his shoulder. However, Rodriguez had Ortega in a submission that caused the injury, and before that, he was picking apart Ortega on the feet.
Ortega hasn't fought since then, so the layoff is a concern. Plus, Rodriguez is the much better striker. He also showed he can hang on the ground with Ortega, so I expect the Mexican to piece up Ortega and get a decision win here over five rounds.
UFC Mexico City Best Bet: Yair Rodriguez (-155)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Chris Duncan (11-1) vs. Manuel Torres (14-2)
For my underdog play at UFC Mexico City, I'm backing Chris Duncan to get his hand raised and remain undefeated in the UFC.
Torres is 2-0 in the UFC with two first-round knockouts, but the level of competition has not been there for him. Duncan will have a clear wrestling advantage. In his UFC wins, he has shown off his grappling to control his opponents and grind out victories.
The first round will be sketchy for Duncan, as he has been rocked in fights before, in addition to getting knocked out on the Contender Series. Yet, should he survive, Duncan will likely have the better cardio, and his wrestling will be able to control Torres to grind out a decision win.
UFC Mexico City Best Bet: Chris Duncan (+154)
Weight Class: Flyweight
Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) vs. Brandon Royval (15-7)
These two fought in November of 2020, as Royval took it on short notice, which he is also doing here . In that bout, Moreno won by first-round TKO after the American suffered a shoulder injury.
Throughout their careers, both Moreno and Royval have been pretty durable, so I like the over 3.5 rounds in this fight at -140. Moreno and Royval will likely keep it standing for the most part, and neither has much KO power, while both of their chins are solid.
This fight will likely go the distance, but with the line being set at 3.5 rounds, it is a safer player here in the main event.
UFC Mexico City Best Bet: Brandon Moreno-Brandon Royval over 3.5 rounds (-140)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Flyweight
Muhammadjon Naimov (10-2) vs. Erick Silva (9-2)
Felipe dos Santos (7-1) vs. Victor Altamirano (12-3)
My parlay at UFC Mexico City on Saturday will be the first two fights of the night, as I'm backing Muhammadjon Naimov and Felipe dos Santos to get their hands raised.
Naimov opens up the card against Silva, which is a step down in competition to me. Naimov is coming off an impressive win over Nathaniel Wood, and before that, knocked out Jamie Mullarkey at lightweight. Silva, meanwhile, is 0-1 in the UFC and was submitted by TJ Brown, who has since been released from the promotion. Silva also hasn't fought since December of 2022, which is a concern.
Naimov is the much better striker and should be able to piece up and potentially even KO Silva here to improve to 3-0 in the UFC.
To close out the parlay, I'm backing Felipe dos Santos to pick up his first UFC win against Victor Altamirano. Dos Santos made his UFC debut on short notice against Manel Kape and had some success, as he showed he could be a future contender. Altamirano, meanwhile, is 2-2 in the UFC and hasn't impressed me. Dos Santos should be able to keep this fight standing and land the better shots. He'll be more active on the feet and edge out a decision.
UFC Mexico City Best Bet: Muhammadjon Naimov & Felipe dos Santos parlay (-152)
UFC Mexico City Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Mexico City best bets:
- Yair Rodriguez (-155)
- Chris Duncan (+154)
- Brandon Moreno-Brandon Royval over 3.5 rounds (-140)
- Muhammadjon Naimov & Felipe dos Santos parlay (-152)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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