This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Top DFS Picks and Betting Strategies for UFC Des Moines
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Des Moines card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 121-49-1 ~ Dog Picks 20-12-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Bolanos + Jackson +160 ~ 8-5-1 +615
DFS Lock of the Week: Montel Jackson - 12-1
Fanduel Captain: Jackson/Nickal
Cory Sandhagen (17-5-0) v. Deiveson Figueiredo (24-4-1)
Cory Sandhagen (High-floor cash and GPP option)
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Switch
- Trains at Elevation Fight Team
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission
- Known for high-volume striking and movement
Deiveson Figueiredo (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 68" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Fight Ready MMA
- 9 wins by KO/TKO, 9 by submission
- Former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion
- Known for explosive power and submission skills
DFS Perspective: I'm all over Sandhagen in this one. His size and reach advantage, combined with his diverse striking arsenal, should allow him to control the distance and pace of the fight. While Figueiredo is a formidable grappler, Sandhagen's improved wrestling and movement could neutralize those threats. Unless Figueiredo can close the distance and implement his grappling effectively, Sandhagen should outpoint him over five rounds. Strong lean on Sandhagen as a high-floor cash play with potential GPP upside.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Sandhagen
Reinier de Ridder (19-2-0) v. Bo Nickal (7-0-0)
Reinier de Ridder (Mid-range GPP option)
- Height: 6'4" – Reach: N/A – Stance: Orthodox
- Former ONE Championship Middleweight and Light Heavyweight Champion
- 19 wins: 3 by KO/TKO, 13 by submission, 3 by decision
- Trains at Combat Brothers in the Netherlands
Bo Nickal (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Three-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion
- 7 wins: 2 by KO/TKO, 4 by submission, 1 by decision
- Trains at American Top Team
DFS Perspective: This is a grappler's dream matchup, but I lean Nickal here. He's the more explosive athlete, with elite wrestling translating seamlessly to MMA. De Ridder is dangerous on the mat with slick submissions, but he's hittable on the feet and slower overall. If Nickal stays composed and doesn't overextend in scrambles, he should be able to dictate where the fight takes place and grind this out, or finish with ground-and-pound. High-upside GPP play with early finish potential, but a live fight for both.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Nickal
Santiago Ponzinibbio (30-8-0) v. Daniel Rodriguez (18-5-0)
Santiago Ponzinibbio (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 73" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at American Top Team
- 17 wins by KO/TKO, 6 by submission
- Aggressive striker with notable power
Daniel Rodriguez (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu
- 8 wins by KO/TKO, 4 by submission
- High-volume striker with solid durability
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez brings the higher volume and more consistent output, which gives him the edge in a potential decision. Ponzinibbio, however, carries more one-shot finishing power and could end this early if he connects clean. Both fighters are capable, but this matchup leans toward a striking battle that may go the distance. Unless you're banking on a finish, this fight might be more of a fade in DFS contests.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Rodriguez
Montel Jackson (14-2-0) v. Daniel Marcos (17-0-0)
Montel Jackson (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 75" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Pura Vida BJJ/MMA
- 8 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission; 5 by decision
- Known for exceptional reach and striking accuracy
- Holds record for most knockdowns in UFC bantamweight history
Daniel Marcos (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at American Combat Gym
- 8 wins by KO/TKO; 9 by decision
- Undefeated with a 17-0 record; former 300 Sparta Bantamweight Champion
DFS Perspective: I'm high on Jackson here. His massive reach for the division and sharp striking should be a real problem for Marcos, who tends to rely on pressure and close-range exchanges. Marcos is undefeated and tough but hasn't faced someone with Jackson's physical tools and precision. If Jackson keeps this at range and stays composed, he could pick Marcos apart and rack up a big score. Great GPP play with sneaky cash game value.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Jackson
Cameron Smotherman (12-4-0) v. Serhiy Sidey (11-2-0)
Cameron Smotherman (High-upside GPP target)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Metro Fight Club
- 6 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission; 5 by decision
- Known for high-volume striking and relentless pace
- Height: 5'11" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Switch
- Trains at Burlington Training Centre
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission; 3 by decision
- Notable striking power, but has shown defensive vulnerabilities
DFS Perspective: Smotherman is a great dog to play this week. He brings high-volume striking and relentless pace, which could overwhelm Sidey. Sidey has power but is hittable and has shown vulnerabilities in his recent fights. If Smotherman can maintain his output and avoid the big shots, he has a solid path to victory. Leaning towards Smotherman as a value GPP and cash target with upset potential.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Smotherman
Jeremy Stephens (29-21-0) v. Mason Jones (15-2-0)
- Height: 5'9" – Reach: 71" – Stance: Orthodox
- Veteran striker with 19 KO/TKO wins in 29 victories
- Former UFC and PFL competitor, returning to UFC after a hiatus
- Last UFC fight: July 17, 2021; recent stint in BKFC with notable KO over Eddie Alvarez
- Trains at Alliance MMA in San Diego, CA
Mason Jones (Mid-Range GPP play)
- Height: 5'10" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Orthodox
- Former Cage Warriors Lightweight and Welterweight Champion
- 4 wins by KO/TKO, 3 by submission; known for aggressive pace
- UFC record: 1-2 (1 NC); returning after a series of wins in Cage Warriors
- Trains at The MAT Academy in Blaenavon, Wales
DFS Perspective: I like Jones quite a bit here. He's looked sharp in his return to Cage Warriors -- clean striking, relentless pressure and far more composed than his early UFC run. Stephens always has power, but he's been through a lot of wars and isn't the same guy he was a few years ago. If Jones fights smart, mixes in volume and avoids a firefight, he could run away with this. Sneaky GPP play with strong scoring potential and lower ownership than he probably deserves.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Jones
Yana Santos (15-8-0) v. Miesha Tate (20-9-0)
Yana Santos (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 68.5" – Stance: Orthodox
- Striking-focused fighter with a background in Taekwondo and Muay Thai
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission; 7 by decision
- Trains at American Top Team
Miesha Tate (Strong cash and GPP option)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 66.5" – Stance: Orthodox
- Grappling specialist with a foundation in wrestling and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu
- 4 wins by KO/TKO, 8 by submission; 8 by decision
- Trains at Xtreme Couture
DFS Perspective: This could be a slow-paced grind, but Tate has the grappling edge and more ways to control where the fight takes place. Santos is the cleaner striker, but her volume doesn't always translate to scoring, and she's struggled to keep strong wrestlers off her. Tate's top control and submission threat give her the edge in DFS formats, especially in cash games. Slight lean to Tate as the more reliable minute-winner.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Tate
Azamat Bekoev (19-3-0) v. Ryan Loder (7-1-0)
Azamat Bekoev (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 6'0" – Reach: 72" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at American Top Team
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 8 by submission
- Former LFA Middleweight Champion; UFC debut win via first-round KO
Ryan Loder (Mid-range GPP target)
- Height: 6'2" – Reach: 76" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Team Alpha Male
- 5 wins by KO/TKO; former NCAA Division I wrestler
- Won The Ultimate Fighter 32 Middleweight final via second-round TKO
DFS Perspective: Bekoev is the real deal -- well-rounded, powerful and dangerous everywhere. He's sharp on the feet, aggressive in the grappling and doesn't waste time when he sees openings. Loder has solid wrestling credentials, but he's still green at this level and could get overwhelmed by Bekoev's pressure and finishing instincts. I have a strong lean Bekoev as a legit GPP anchor with clear early finish upside.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Bekoev
Marina Rodriguez (17-5-2) v. Gillian Robertson (15-8-0)
Marina Rodriguez (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 65" – Stance: Orthodox
- Technical Muay Thai striker with sharp elbows and knees
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission; 9 by decision
- Trains at Thai Brasil in Florianópolis, Brazil
Gillian Robertson (Strong GPP and cash option)
- Height: 5'5" – Reach: 63" – Stance: Orthodox
- Black belt in BJJ under Din Thomas; 9 submission wins
- Holds UFC records for most submission wins among women
- Trains at The Goat Shed in Port Saint Lucie, Florida
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez has the striking advantage by a mile and could light Robertson up on the feet if she keeps the fight standing. But that's the key -- IF. Robertson is relentless with her takedowns, and if she drags this to the mat early, it could be over fast. I'm leaning Robertson here. Her path is more straightforward for DFS with submission upside, and Rodriguez has shown real issues off her back. Strong GPP and viable cash option.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Robertson
Gaston Bolanos (8-4-0) v. Quang Le (8-2-0)
Gaston Bolanos (High-upside GPP play)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 69" – Stance: Orthodox
- Explosive Muay Thai striker with 6 KO wins in 8 victories
- 5 first-round finishes; trains at Combat Sports Academy in Dublin, CA
- UFC record: 2-1; former Bellator standout
- Height: 5'6" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Orthodox
- Well-rounded fighter with 2 KO and 3 submission wins in 8 victories
- Purple belt in BJJ; trains at The Academy MN
- UFC record: 0-2; former LFA competitor
DFS Perspective: Bolanos should have a clear edge on the feet here. His striking is explosive, technical and dangerous, especially early. Le is well-rounded but doesn't offer the volume or pressure to offset Bolanos' pace. Unless Le surprises with grappling volume, this feels like Bolanos' fight to control. I don't have much faith in Le here. Bolanos is the far more dangerous fighter and a strong GPP play with knockout upside.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Bolanos
Don'Tale Mayes (11-8-0) v. Thomas Petersen (9-3-0)
- Height: 6'6" – Reach: 81" – Stance: Orthodox
- Trains at Jackson-Wink MMA
- 6 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission
- Known for his size and striking power
Thomas Petersen (Mid-Range GPP play)
- Height: 6'1" – Reach: 74" – Stance: Southpaw
- Trains at Spartan MMA
- 7 wins by KO/TKO, 1 by submission
- Aggressive wrestler with heavy hands
DFS Perspective: Petersen is a powerful wrestler with heavy hands, and Mayes has shown vulnerabilities against aggressive opponents. If Petersen can close the distance and implement his game plan, an early knockout is a strong possibility. Mayes has the reach advantage and some experience, but Petersen's pressure and finishing ability make him a mid-range GPP play.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Peterson
Juliana Miller (3-3-0) v. Ivana Petrovic (7-2-0)
- Height: 5'7" – Reach: 66" – Stance: Orthodox
- Aggressive grappler with 3 submission wins in 3 victories
- Struggles with striking defense; 1 TKO loss
- Former TUF 30 winner; trains at 10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu
- 2-fight losing streak; 1-2 in UFC
Ivana Petrovic (High-upside GPP/Cash play)
- Height: 5'8" – Reach: 70" – Stance: Southpaw
- Balanced finisher: 3 KOs, 3 submissions in 7 wins
- Former ARES FC champion; trains at Orion MMA Academy
- UFC record: 1-2
DFS Perspective: Miller brings aggression and some submission upside, but her striking is a liability, and she's been outclassed in her last two. Petrovic is the cleaner, more composed fighter with better striking, better footwork, and enough grappling chops to keep this upright if needed. I'm high on Petrovic here—she should be able to piece Miller up on the feet and avoid any major ground threats. Solid GPP play with a path to a dominant decision or late finish.
UFC Des Moines Pick: Petrovic
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
