This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 313 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 313 card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 61-22-1 ~ Dog Picks 14-4-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Bruno Ferreira +130 ~ 5-1-1 +585
DFS Lock of the Week: Joshua Van - 6-0
Fanduel Captain: Blaydes/Ferreira
Djorden Santos (10-1-0) v. Ozzy Diaz (9-3-0)
Djorden Santos - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
Ozzy Diaz - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: We start the night with a fight I'm not very excited about. Diaz was knocked out in his UFC debut and did not show anything special in the two minutes he was up. Santos is making his debut fresh off of his Contender Series win. His last few fights have gone to a decision, which is not generally good for DFS. I am skeptical of Diaz's chin and ability to fight in the UFC. Santos likely isn't a top guy by any means, but he should be able to get the job done in his debut. It's purely a GPP fight only.
UFC 313 Pick: Santos
Chris Gutierrez (21-6-2) v. John Castaneda (21-7-0)
Chris Gutierrez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 21 wins
John Castaneda - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: I will likely X out both fighters for DFS. Gutierrez does not score well in wins, and Casteneda does not score well without an early finish, which is unlikely in this fight. Castaneda might be the quicker of these two, but Gutierrez is excellent at forcing fighters back with kicks. I expect this to be a slower-paced fight, with Gutierrez pulling off the slight upset.
UFC 313 Pick: Gutierrez
Mairon Santos (15-1-0) v. Francis Marshall (8-2-0)
Mairon Santos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Francis Marshall - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Francis ended his two-fight losing streak last time out, scraping by with a split decision. He has not shown enough to be confident in him in any scenario or fight. On the other hand, Santos added to his collection of knockouts with a 2nd round knockout win in his UFC debut. It would be wise to get to both guys in GPP contests. Francis could get this to the mat and end it early or keep Santos on his back. Santos could avoid the takedowns and dominate the striking, potentially ending with another knockout. The latter is more likely.
UFC 313 Pick: Santos
Alex Morono (24-11-0) v. Carlos Leal (21-6-0)
Alex Morono - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 24 wins
Carlos Leal - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Morono has lost three of his last four and could be looking at his walking papers with another loss. Unfortunately, he is nothing special and draws a top-15 contender. Although he lost his debut, Leal was incredibly impressive with all aspects of his game. The guy is 30 and is entering his prime. His game has no glaring holes or weaknesses, and I expect him to have his way with Morono.
UFC 313 Pick: Leal
Brunno Ferreira (12-2-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (9-4-0)
Brunno Ferreira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
Armen Petrosyan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: I'm having a difficult time trying to figure out why Petrosyan is the favorite. He is one-dimensional and does not score well in DFS. Ferreira lost last time out after being submitted but has otherwise been dominant on the feet. He is an exceptional play for DFS, given his his penchant for early knockouts. I expect the betting line to work towards Ferreira before fight night.
UFC 313 Pick: Ferreira
Like this underdog play? Try it out with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Joshua Van (12-2-0) v. Rei Tsuruya (10-0-0)
Joshua Van - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
Rei Tsuruya - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a bad matchup for Tsuruya right now. He did well in his UFC debut, but Van is a significant step up in competition. Tsuruya prefers a grounded type of fight, and Van's takedown defense is elite. Van has quickly returned to a winning streak after his first UFC loss just three fights ago. He will have a considerable edge on the feet and I expect him to light Tsuruya with volume he is not ready for. Van can be fired up in all formats.
UFC 313 Pick: Van
Curtis Blaydes (18-5-0) v. Rizvan Kuniev (12-2-1)
Curtis Blaydes - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 18 wins
Rizvan Kuniev - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Blaydes should absolutely dominate this fight and is the pick to win. This will be especially true if he returns to form and immediately gets this to the mat. That said, Kuniev has all sorts of power that Blaydes will need to watch out for. Blaydes is the play, but a sprinkle of Kuniev in GPP contests is not a bad idea.
UFC 313 Pick: Blaydes
King Green (32-16-1) v. Mauricio Ruffy (11-1-0)
King Green - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 32 wins
Mauricio Ruffy - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Ruffy has a chance to show something here. Green is a long-time vet with tons of experience. He will likely have a volume edge in this fight and would most certainly be the better wrestler if he took it there. Ruffy is dangerous, and another knockout win is looming. However, he showed in his last fight that he is unwilling to throw just to throw. He is meticulous and looks for the strike that will cause the most damage. This is worrisome, particularly against a guy like Green. I am a huge fan and believer in the Fighting Nerds and expect Ruffy to get the job done. Having shares of Green is not a bad idea, though.
UFC 313 Pick: Ruffy
Amanda Lemos (14-4-1) v. Iasmin Lucindo (17-5-0)
Amanda Lemos - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 14 wins
Iasmin Lucindo - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Unless you feel that this fight ends within the first two rounds, it's likely a pass for DFS. Both ladies have solid games that will likely cancel out the finishing ability of the other. I can see this going back and forth, but Lucindo's ground game is the difference.
UFC 313 Pick: Lucindo
Jalin Turner (14-8-0) v. Ignacio Bahamondes (16-5-0)
Jalin Turner - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 14 wins
Ignacio Bahamondes - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should exhibit some fireworks for everyone to enjoy. I do not see much groundwork happening here, and a knockout will be on both of their minds. Turner looked like he was the next big thing but has now lost three of his last four, albeit against top competition. Bahamondes has won five of his previous six, including back-to-back first-round knockouts, but Turner is likely the toughest guy he has had to face to date. This is genuinely a 50-50 fight and could go either way. Having shares of both in GPP would be wise.
UFC 313 Pick: Bahamondes
Justin Gaethje (25-5-0) v. Rafael Fiziev (12-3-0)
Justin Gaethje - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 21 finishes in 25 wins
Rafael Fiziev - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Fiziev is stepping in on short notice to take Gaethje on for the second time. The first fight was extremely close, with Gaethje running away with it late. Fiziev is coming in off an injury and will undoubtedly experience some rust or hesitation. Gaethje has developed a new measured level of striking over the last couple of years, and it is sure to carry him to a repeat win here. Fiziev being the favorite is a curious thing, and getting Gaethje at plus money against someone he has beaten and on short notice off an injury is a little mindboggling.
UFC 313 Pick: Gaethje
Alex Pereira (12-2-0) v. Magomed Ankalaev (20-1-1)
Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Magomed Ankalaev - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: It is doubtful that Ankalaev can match Pereira's striking, and it is expected that he shoots early and often. However, I do not expect him to succeed in getting Pereira to the mat. Pereira will continue his winning streak with another early knockout over the challenger.
UFC 313 Pick: Pereira
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
