The final UFC card of the year should be one to remember, as two title fights sit atop a packed 13-fight card. We'll take a look at every bout on the slate across three platforms, including one of the heaviest punchers at featherweight, and a welterweight king looking to solidify his spot at the top. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA Betting Page and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Tagir Ulanbekov ($8,300)
Ulanbekov's stiff jab and ability to keep range make him a threat in all areas, but his grappling keeps him in DraftKings points, as he put up 55 in his split-decision loss to Tim Elliott in 2022. This solidifies him as an option with both a high ceiling and a high floor against a fighter in Cody Durden who was noticeably slowing down in his last bout against Jake Hadley. The cardio and scrambling ability should help put Tagir over the top in this one, and the mixture of striking and grappling means we are once again looking at an upside of 100 points or more.
Casey O'Neill ($8,700)
O Neill is cut from the same cloth as someone like Ulanbekov, as her high pace, pressure, and grappling generally ensure results. This is evidenced by the 111.4 DraftKings points she has averaged in five UFC fights. Ariane Lipski is a skilled kickboxer but has never shown an ability to get off of her back once taken down. It is for this reason that I think O'Neill needs to be a target in all formats, as she has never been knocked out in 10 professional fights.
Paddy Pimblett ($9,400)
There's likely a small part in all of us that wants to see Tony Ferguson rally to reclaim some of his forgotten glory, but it simply isn't realistic to assume that Pimblett won't be able to use his size to do what he does best. "The Baddy" is extremely hittable, but Ferguson wasn't a hard puncher at the peak of his career, so I have to believe that, at some point, he will get stuck on his back. The only question from here is whether or not he gets submitted, which is the difference between choosing The Scouser as a cash or GPP play. I believe Tony is resilient enough to fend off the sub attempts, making Paddy a suboptimal tournament play on such a big card.
Shavkat Rakhmonov ($9,700)
Rakhmonov is such a complete fighter that I wouldn't put it past him to hang with Stephen Thompson on the feet, but it's more likely he will take him down quickly, as "Wonderboy" showed almost no ability to stay on his feet against Gilbert Burns or Belal Muhammad. Whereas we had to decide if Pimblett was a reasonable tournament play, I'm going with a hard pass on "Nomad" here, as Thompson has never been submitted in 24 professional fights. Rakhmonov has hovered around the 100-point mark in the majority of his wins, which simply won't be good enough on a slate of this size. While I do think he has plenty of cash-game viability, there are many other GPP plays to look at on this slate.
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,600)
Pantoja answered a few big questions in his title win over Brandon Moreno. Chief among these were his abiility to scramble with another solid grappler, and the way he kept his cardio late in what became a grueling fight. I expect both of these attributes to be issues for Brandon Royval, as I don't think Pantoja will be thrown off by the chaos "Raw Dog" tries to bring to the cage. In fact, I expect the champion to be better in every phase of this fight, leading to a big score over five rounds.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Randy Brown OVER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, Martin Buday UNDER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Andre Fili OVER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time.
Oddly enough, I expect Brown to take the grappling lead on this one, as the longer fighter must be aware of how easily Nicolas Dalby was able to impose his will on Muslim Salikhov in the final two rounds of their fight. Brown has shown himself to have a bit of a suspect chin at times, but Salikhov works slowly enough that "Rude Boy" should be able to find his range and keep it for the duration of the bout.
Buday can be a slogging heavyweight who drags fights to the final horn, but that simply isn't the style of Shamil Gaziev, who has seen 10 of his 11 professional fights end before the start of the third round. The pace and lack of defensive prowess shown by the debutante will ensure that big exchanges happen more often than not. This makes giving these two more than two full frames to put each other away something of a gift.
Fili gets caught in wars more often than you might expect from a lanky, athletic kickboxer, but I think the similar size and frame of Lucas Almeida could lead to a bit of a staring match. There is no doubt that big exchanges will happen in this one, but they won't occur often enough to make me consider the under, as both men have a grappling game they can utilize, as well.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Leon Edwards UNDER 76.5 Significant Strikes, Cody Garbrandt UNDER 36.5 Significant Strikes, and Irene Aldana OVER 72.5 Significant Strikes
My read on the dynamic heading into the Main Event is simple: Colby Covington can't stand at range for more than a few consecutive minutes without being hit incredibly hard. Given this, it's a certainty that "Chaos" will try and grapple as often as he can against the best striker he has ever faced. This will lead to either a grinding affair, in which Colby has his way, or a knockout by "Rocky." Both fight styles will lead to a depressed number of significant strikes for Edwards and should see us clear this under with plenty of room to spare.
Garbrandt seemed almost afraid to stand at range with Trevin Jones in his last fight. We saw why this was the case with about two minutes left in the final frame, as "Five Star" uncorked a shot that put the former bantamweight champion on skates and saw him clinching for his life. In Brian Kelleher, Garbrandt will face someone who will be able to keep up with him in the speed department, while still possesing the ability to close the show with one punch. This will lead to a lot more grappling from "No Love," which should result in time burned in 50/50 spots against the fence.
It's been quite a while since Aldana or Karol Rosa got an opponent who was willing to stand at range with them and trade. That makes this bout something of a dream matchup for our purposes, as both women average well over four significant strikes per minute. As long as one fighter doesn't find a knockout button, we should be sitting pretty on the over here.
Bets to Consider
Josh Emmett Wins via KO/TKO (+400)
Emmett may be on a two-fight skid, but "CCO" has traditionally only lost to fighters who can match him for speed or power. Bryce Mitchell fits into neither category as a plodding, hittable, BJJ ace. "Thug Nasty" will be relentless in trying to force exchanges, but speed, footwork, and strength should all help Emmett keep his feet before he lands the strikes that close the show.
Alonzo Menifield (+240)
As a general rule, I will take the more athletic fighter in the heavier weight classes. There is no question who gets that nod in this bout, as Menifield is incredibly fast and powerful. If that weren't enough, he has shown flashes of a ground game as well, as he submitted a credentialed grappler in Jimmy Crute for his last victory. A more well-rounded Menifield will be incredibly dangerous for Dustin Jacoby, who has lost fights against heavy punchers with athleticism in the past. I will grab this line with a smile, as Jacoby's kickboxing won't be able to measure up here.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC 296 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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