This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 85 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Thomas Petersen (8-1-0) v. Jamal Pogues (10-4-0)
Thomas Petersen - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 8 wins
Jamal Pogues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Pogues has not shown me enough to think he will have a long-lasting contract in the UFC. This will be Peterson's UFC debut, but he should have more than enough to handle Pogues. He will have the edge everywhere, and I expect him to end this fight early, making him a solid play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Peterson
Marquel Mederos (8-1-0) v. Landon Quinones (7-2-1)
Marquel Mederos - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Landon Quinones - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: I expect this to be a war between two up-and-coming prospects. Mederos is making his debut in the promotion, while Quinones is coming off a loss in his debut. Both guys throw caution to the wind and are unafraid to eat a shot. I expect this to be close, but I think the power of Mederos is the difference.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Mederos
Julija Stoliarenko (11-7-1) v. Luana Carolina (9-4-0)
Julija Stoliarenko - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Luana Carolina - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight is pretty straightforward. Stoliarenko will be looking to get this to the mat, while Carolina will be looking to strike. Carolina is definitely the more boring fighter, but if she defends takedowns, she will win a low-scoring decision. I expect Carolina to avoid getting trapped in an arm bar and outpoint Stoliarenko to a decision win.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Carolina
Blake Bilder (8-1-1) v. Jeong Yeong Lee (10-1-0)
Blake Bilder - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
Jeong Yeong Lee - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a pure GPP fight for DFS purposes. Bilder is coming off of a rather weak loss, and Lee is coming off of a split-decision win that he definitely lost. Bilder will have the edge in striking, which is likely the difference in the fight. I would not expect a high score without a finish.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Bilder
Themba Gorimbo (11-4-0) v. Pete Rodriguez (5-1-0)
Themba Gorimbo - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
Pete Rodriguez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Striker vs. grappler. Gorimbo will be looking to get this to the mat to control, and Rodriguez will be looking to knock him out as soon as it starts. Gorimbo excels at using his large frame to suffocate fighters from a top position, not allowing them any room to get up. Rodriguez has struggled at times with this in the past, but I will side with the dog to get this one done. His speed and power will be more than enough to knock Gorimbo out if he avoids the takedowns.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Rodriguez
Charles Johnson (13-6-0) v. Azat Maksum (17-0-0)
Charles Johnson - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
Azat Maksum - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: The only edge I would give Johnson in this fight is his UFC experience and possibly his volume. Maksum will be better everywhere, particularly on the mat, where I expect him to keep this fight. He could smash his value in DFS, chaining takedowns and keeping control.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Maksum
Molly McCann (13-6-0) v. Diana Belbita (15-8-0)
Molly McCann - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 62" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
Diana Belbita - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a good bounce-back spot for McCann. The striking will be close, but McCann will have a considerable edge on the mat. Belbita can handle herself on the mat but does not mind fighting from her back, which is a recipe for disaster against McCann. Belbita publicly stated she was trending toward retirement before being offered this fight. All signs lead to McCann knocking one out of the park here.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: McCann
Gilbert Urbina (7-2-0) v. Charlie Radtke (8-3-0)
Gilbert Urbina - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 7 wins
Charlie Radtke - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Urbina is one of my favorite picks of the card. He has had two hard-fought fights in the UFC and solid wins outside the promotion. Radtke struggled in his debut against a low-level opponent and showed nothing that tells us he could win this fight without a kill shot. I expect Urbina to control every aspect of this fight and cruise a decision win.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Urbina
Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0-0) v. Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0)
Aliaskhab Khizriev - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 74" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
Makhmud Muradov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: Khizriev excelled in his UFC debut and showed off all facets of his game. Muradov got himself back in the win column on the heels of 13 takedowns in his most recent fight and looked like the future contender we got used to seeing. While Khizriev is a considerable favorite and has the tools to win this fight, I like Muradov to upset him. Muradov has the better overall defense and is equally as dangerous.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Muradov
Viviane Araujo (12-5-0) v. Natalia Silva (16-5-1)
Viviane Araujo - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Natalia Silva - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 65" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds should be closer for this fight. Araujo has fought top-tier competition in this division and is no slouch. Silva is a touted prospect who has run through all four of her UFC opponents. I would give Araujo the edge on the mat and Silva the edge on the feet. The striking could be close, but the control time on the mat could be the difference in this fight, and I would expect Araujo to be the one jockeying for takedowns. This is Silva's toughest fight to date and will be a good gauge of where she is at.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Araujo
Randy Brown (17-5-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-4-0)
Randy Brown - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 17 wins
Muslim Salikhov - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Salikhov is likely the better overall martial artist, but he faces a massive reach disadvantage, and as a primary striker, that will cause issues against Brown. Brown can win a rather boring decision by keeping this fight at range and throwing combos down the middle to keep Salikhov off of him. He is also more likely to shoot for takedowns. I expect this fight to be close, but for Brown to edge it out.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Brown
Renato Moicano (17-5-1) v. Drew Dober (27-12-0)
Renato Moicano - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
Drew Dober - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 27 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be an excellent fight to target for GPP contests as a finish is likely: Moicano by sub or Dober by knockout. I like the slight size advantage for Moicano to work this to the mat and eventually submit Dober early, but there would be no surprise to see him knocked out early.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Moicano
Roman Dolidze (12-2-0) v. Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0)
Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Nassourdine Imavov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be a banger. Dolidze is always dangerous and is the fighter more likely to finish this fight. Imavov has shown incredible toughness and is a hard out; he is more likely to win a decision. There is only one loss by finish between both fighters, which was Imavov's first professional fight back in 2016. Dolidze applies a constant forward pressure that I see Imavov countering with constant jabs down the middle. I like Imavov in this fight, as I see it going all 25 minutes, but I would not be shocked to see Dolidze finish this early.
UFC Vegas 85 Pick: Imavov
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Vegas 85 DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
