This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Vegas 79 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Montserrat Rendon (5-0-0) v. Tamires Vidal (7-1-0)
Montserrat Rendon - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 6 wins
Tamires Vidal - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 3 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: Rendon making her UFC debut here is questionable. She has no remarkable wins, no finishes, nothing that jumps out in her five wins, and she is already 34. Vidal shined in her debut with a first-round knockout, and I expect something similar here. She should have the edge everywhere, particularly on the feet. I would not touch Rendon in any contest for DFS.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Vidal
Mizuki Inoue (14-6-0) v. Hannah Goldy (6-3-0)
Mizuki Inoue - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 1 finishes in 6 wins
Hannah Goldy - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: Mizuki has not done enough to warrant being as big a favorite as she is. She was arguably gifted her debut win and then struggled in her second fight against a higher-level fighter. Goldy is tough but has only shown us she can beat lower-level fighters. I expect this to be another close decision for each, possibly even a split. Mizuki is the pick to win, but a high score for DFS is not likely.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Inoue
Mohammed Usman (9-2-0) v. Jake Collier (13-9-0)
Mohammed Usman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Jake Collier - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Usman has won both of his UFC fights, the most recent by controlling his opponent for 12 minutes. His volume leaves much to be desired, but his power is devastating when he lands. Collier has lost three consecutive fights -- the two decision losses he could have arguably won, and the other he was winning until he got knocked out. I expect Collier to have the advantage everywhere except power; he only needs to avoid getting put out. Due to the power of Usman, he makes a solid GPP type of play for DFS. However, given the statistical advantages for Collier, I like him for all contests.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Collier
Jacob Malkoun (7-2-0) v. Cody Brundage (8-5-0)
Jacob Malkoun - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
Cody Brundage - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Malkoun is a power wrestler and has made statements by chaining takedowns and keeping control. I see this fight going the same. Brundage looked lost in his last fight, showing no drive or cardio. He is a fade until something changes. I expect Malkoun to dominate this fight, making him safe for all contests.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Malkoun
Tim Means (32-15-1) v. Andre Fialho (16-7-0)
Tim Means - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 24 finishes in 32 wins
Andre Fialho - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Means, unfortunately, looks to be reaching the end of his rope. He has lost three consecutive fights with considerable punishment and is now 39. Fialho has also lost three in a row, all by knockout. It was solid competition but something to worry about regardless. This will be a good get-right spot for Fialho, and I expect him to find his way back into the win column with a knockout.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Fialho
Dan Argueta (9-1-0) v. Miles Johns (13-2-0)
Dan Argueta - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 68" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Miles Johns - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Johns will have his takedown defense tested in a massive way against Argueta. If he can keep this upright, he will have the edge in striking. However, I expect Argueta to succeed quickly with his takedowns and handle business. Argueta is one of my favorite plays on the slate for all contests.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Argueta
Charles Jourdain (14-6-1) v. Ricardo Ramos (16-4-0)
Charles Jourdain - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 14 wins
Ricardo Ramos - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight should be entertaining with non-stop action. Ramos will have an edge on the mat, while Jourdain will have an edge on the feet. Jourdain also has a little wrestling in his back pocket and should be able to avoid any submissions. I expect this to be a tight fight, with Jourdain either winning a decision or recording a knockout.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Jourdain
Bryan Battle (9-2-0) v. AJ Fletcher (10-2-0)
Bryan Battle - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
AJ Fletcher - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Battle recorded a 14-second knockout in his most recent fight and is now 4-1 in his UFC tenure. Fletcher finally got himself a UFC win, though not without a slow start. Battle will be quicker and hold the edge everywhere. I expect him to hand Fletcher another loss, likely early, making him an excellent play for DFS.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Battle
Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2) v. Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-11-0)
Marina Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
Michelle Waterson-Gomez - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: This is a rematch from the main event fight back in May 2021. I see this going as it did unless Waterson mixes in more takedowns and wrestling. This is not a fight to target for DFS unless you think one of them finishes this early.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Rodriguez
Bryce Mitchell (15-1-0) v. Dan Ige (17-6-0)
Bryce Mitchell - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Dan Ige - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the hardest fights for me to choose, and I imagine many others will be in a similar boat. Mitchell is coming off a tough submission loss to one of the top fighters in the division. Ige is riding a two-fight win streak and has looked the best he has since early-2021. Mitchell will have a considerable advantage grappling as one of the best in the division, while Ige will have a significant edge on the feet. Mitchell had not been finished until his last fight, and Ige has never been finished at all. I expect this to be a close fight, which should be much closer to a pick 'em. I will side with the dog. If he avoids being taken down, he will piece Mitchell up.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Ige
Rafael Fiziev (12-2-0) v. Mateusz Gamrot (22-2-0)
Rafael Fiziev - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
Mateusz Gamrot - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: The main event features two guys who enact two different game plans. Fiziev is a striker with excellent takedown defense, while Gamrot is a chain wrestler with solid grappling. One of the two guys has to break. Either Fiziev continues to defend takedowns at an elite clip, and he pieces Gamrot up for five rounds, or Gamrot gets this to the mat and keeps Fiziev controlled for several minutes at a time. I am inclined to lean toward the favorite and the takedown defense. Gamrot might get one or two, but how much punishment will he eat before getting them? Fiziev is a solid play for all contests.
UFC Vegas 79 Pick: Fiziev
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
