DraftKings UFC Picks: UFC Vancouver DFS Preview

Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vancouver: De Ridder vs. Allen. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.
DraftKings UFC Picks: UFC Vancouver DFS Preview
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Get top DraftKings MMA DFS picks and strategy for UFC Vancouver: De Ridder vs. Allen. Build winning lineups with our preview, analysis & fighter breakdowns.

UFC Vancouver DraftKings DFS Preview and Picks

If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...

Main Event - Middleweight

Reinier de Ridder (21-2-0) v. Brendan Allen (25-7-0)
DK Salaries: de Ridder ($8,800), Allen ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: de Ridder (-210), Allen (+160)

This was originally scheduled to be de Ridder and Anthony Hernandez, which, quite frankly, was a better fight. It pitted the division's two top contenders against each other, and the winner was likely guaranteed a title shot.

I was skeptical of de Ridder upon his UFC arrival, but he has proven me wrong and done so in a major way. RDR looked thoroughly mediocre in a third-round submission win over Gerald Meerschaert in his company debut last December. Since then, he has gone on to defeat Kevin Holland, Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker in a span of just over six months earlier this year. De Ridder turned 35 years old in early-September, so the UFC really has nothing to lose by pushing him to the extent it has to date. 

Allen lost back-to-back fights to Nassourdine Imavov and Hernandez before taking a unanimous decision from Marvin Vettori in July to get back on track. He had won seven straight prior to the brief slide, so he's been doing quality work for quite a while. Allen is a rock-solid middleweight. He's a top-10 guy all day long. I have just never viewed him as being on the same level as the very best the division has to offer.

Both these guys have competed as high as light heavyweight in the past, although it was de Ridder who had far more success at 205 pounds, winning the ONE Championship at that weight class. 

Both are awkward, uncomfortable strikers who look out of place in prolonged stand-up exchanges. RDR was getting battered on the feet by Meerschaert at times, which tells you all you need to know. He probably has the slight edge in terms of power, but the winner of this fight will be the one that can successfully get their grappling game going. 

Allen's defensive grappling isn't great. He's only be submitted once, but his career takedown defense is a woeful 56 percent. Although de Ridder is more of a submission threat than pure wrestler, he's also two inches taller and will have a three-inch reach edge. I think he's big enough and strong enough to out-muscle Allen in tight, which is where I figure this fight will be won or lost.

I'm not rushing to back RDR at his salary, but he handled Nickal and Whittaker without issue, both of whom are much better pure wrestlers than Allen. I think he does enough to win a five-round decision.

UFC VANCOUVER PICK: de Ridder

Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool. 

Co-Main Event - Welterweight

Kevin Holland (28-14-0, 1NC) v. Mike Malott (12-2-1)
DK Salaries: Holland ($8,000). Malott ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Holland (+100), Malott (-130)

Holland is a very difficult guy to get a read on. He's 7-9 (1NC) in his past 17 fights, but you sort of have to disregard the end results a bit considering how frequently he competes. Holland is always willing to accept a fight in any division, and he's gone up against a boatload of high-end opposition. He's short on truly "notable" victories, and I don't see that changing much given the fact he is closing in on his 33rd birthday. His most recent fight against Daniel Rodriguez in July was a perfect example. Holland was a huge favorite that evening in a stylistic matchup which seemed to set up well for him. However, he put forth a poor effort that night and now finds himself right back at square one.

Malott is even older than Holland and will turn 34 years old two days after Holland turns 33 this coming November. The results thus far have been great. Mike is 5-1 with the UFC, with four stoppage wins on his resume. The company has matched him up very soft to date, with the victories coming over Charles Radtke, Trevin Giles, Adam Fugitt, Yohan Lainesse and Mickey Gall. The one time the company gave Malott a legitimate opponent, he dominated Neil Magny the entire time before gassing and getting knocked out with 15 seconds left. 

We have plenty of evidence that Holland can't constantly compete at middleweight. He's too slender and consistently gets outmuscled. He should have a better chance here against Malott, but Mike is a strong grappler. He's averaging 2.08 takedowns per 15 minutes while landing a whopping 56 percent of his attempts. I couldn't definitely see him getting his wrestling game going against Holland.

I mentioned Holland's recent loss to Rodriguez earlier. The performance was concerning on multiple levels, the worst being the fact he was knocked down twice and absorbed a ton of damage on the feet. D-Rod is a one-dimensional boxer. Kevin had a clear speed advantage and was unable to take advantage. When you fight as often as Holland has, it's fair to wonder if his skills are slipping just a tad. It would be understandable. 

Both of these guys are untrustworthy, but the more I think about it, I'd rather spend the extra couple hundred bucks and back Malott in his home country in hopes he can get his wrestling game going. In a three-round fight, one or two well-timed takedowns could be enough to bury Holland on the scorecards.

UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Malott
 

Bantamweight

Marlon Vera (23-10-1) v. Aiemann Zahabi (13-2-0)
DK Salaries: Vera ($7,700), Zahabi ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Vera (+110), Zahabi (-135)

Regular readers of this column are well aware I've never been a big Vera guy, but he's been a serviceable bantamweight for a long time. He's never quite been on the same level as the top guys in the division, but he's not far off and has fought for UFC gold in the past. Now, at age 32, Marlon has lost three of his last four dating back to March 2023. He's probably already done in terms of being on the fringes of title contention, but a loss here to Zahabi will ensure it.

Zahabi's story is one of the most fascinating in the entire company. This is a guy that lost two of his first three UFC fights from February 2017 to May 2019. He took the better part of two more years off, returning in February 2021. Zahabi has won six straight since, including a unanimous decision win over Jose Aldo in May in his featherweight debut in his home province of Quebec. Aiemann will be 38 years old in Novembe,r and my guess is the good times are coming to an end sooner than later, but I never would have bet in a billion years that he would have come even close to sniffing this level of success.

Vera has 10 career wins via submission, but don't let that number fool you. He's a one-dimensional brawler at this stage of his career. He hasn't tapped out an opponent since July 2019. These days, Marlon stands in the pocket and fires off a decent amount of volume. The issue is that he tends to get hit just as much, if not more. Vera's greatest attribute is his supreme durability. He's never been finished in 34 professional fights. I think he's going to hover around the .500 mark moving forward assuming he sticks around with the company.

Zahabi racked up a ton of stoppages early in his professional career and found a pair of knockouts during this recent run, but he's primarily a decision machine. His takedown defense is excellent (83 percent), although he has no offensive grappling of his own. I thought for all the world that Aldo would chew up Zahabi on the feet, but the latter closed with a 99-68 edge in significant strikes landed, including a whopping 52-20 mark in Round 3. While Aldo was fading, Zahabi was getting stronger. 

The issue is that Vera doesn't fade as his fights progress. If anything, he starts slow, almost always losing Round 1, and then picks up the pace.

In three-round fights, you can't keep constantly dropping the opening frame and hope to emerge victorious on the scorecards. That gives me a slight lean towards Zahabi since I think we're going the distance here, although this is basically a pick 'em.

UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Zahabi
 

Women's Flyweight

Manon Fiorot (12-2-0) v. Jasmine Jasudavicius (14-3-0)
DK Salaries: Fiorot ($8,900), Jasudavicius ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Fiorot (-230), Jasudavicius (+175)

Fiorot won each of her first seven UFC fights, including back-to-back victories over Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas. She parlayed the strong run into a title shot against Valentina Shevchenko in May and showed fairly well in a competitive unanimous decision defeat. Fiorot is big for the division at 5-foot-7 and very strong. Offensively, she's very much a generalist, but she's shown the ability to compete in all areas. The lone real concern at this point is the fact she'll be 36 years old next February.

This is the biggest fight in the career of Jasudavicius. Jasmine enters having won five in a row, including a first-round submission victory over Jessica Andrade her last time out in May. Jasudavicius is getting legitimately better every single time we see her, which is a great sign considering she'll be 37 years old in March. She's powerful and a good athlete. 

Jasmine's offense revolves around her power wrestling. She averages 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed multiple takedowns in six of her past eight fights. Jasudavicius does a good job of getting to the hips of her opponent, and she has the upper-body strength to finish her attempts.

Something will have to give here, however, because Fiorot is rocking an excellent 87 percent takedown defense to date. She allowed two takedowns to Shevchenko, but they came on nine attempts. Valentina is known for her ability to dominate from top position, but Fiorot limited her to just 1:52 worth of control time in a five-round fight. Very impressive.

If the grappling game of the two women cancel each other out, I feel as if this fight is going to be won due to volume on the feet. In that instance, Fiorot has the edge. In the six three-round bouts she has competed in during her UFC run, Manon's significant strike totals are as follows: 58, 98, 83, 91, 84, 53.

The last three times Jasmine has seen the final bell in a three-round fight, she finished with 56, 36, and 40 significant strikes, respectively. Jasudavicius is going to have to up the output if the takedowns aren't landing, and I don't think they'll be landing given the size and strength of her opponent.

Jasmine deserves this opportunity, and I'm glad she's getting it in her home country/ I just think she's going up against an opponent that is going to be able to cancel out her greatest strengths without much issue.

UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Fiorot
 

Other Bouts

Bantamweight
Cody Gibson (22-11-0) v. Aori Qileng (25-12-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Gibson ($8,600), Qileng ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Gibson (-170), Qileng (+135)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Gibson

Lightweight
Kyle Nelson (16-6-1) v. Matt Frevola (11-5-1)
DK Salaries: Nelson ($7,900), Frevola ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Nelson (+100), Frevola (-125)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Frevola

Bantamweight
Charles Jourdain (16-8-1) v. Davey Grant (17-7-0)
DK Salaries: Jourdain ($8,700), Grant ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Jourdain (-180), Grant (+135)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Grant

Like this underdog suggestion? Try it out with different lineup combinations and generate up to 150 unique builds with our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.

Flyweight
Bruno Silva (14-7-2, 1NC) v. Hyun Sung Park (10-1-0)
DK Salaries: Silva ($7,200), Park ($9,000)
Vegas Odds; Silva (+200), Park (-265)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Park

Middleweight
Danny Barlow (9-1-0) v. Djorden Santos (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Barlow ($9,200), Santos ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Barlow (-330), Santos (+240)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Barlow

Lightweight
Kyle Prepolec (18-9-0) v. Drew Dober (27-15-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Prepolec ($6,800), Dober ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Prepolec (+340), Dober (-500)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Prepolec 

Women's Strawweight
Stephanie Luciano (6-2-1) v. Ravena Oliveira (7-2-1)
DK Salaries: Luciano ($9,300), Oliveira ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Luciano (-370), Oliveira (+265)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Luciano

Middleweight
Azamat Bekoev (20-3-0) v. Yousri Belgaroui (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Bekoev ($9,100), Belgaroui ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Bekoev (-295), Belgaroui (+200)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Bekoev

Women's Bantamweight
Melissa Croden (6-2-0) v. Tainara Lisboa (7-3-0)
DK Salaries: Croden ($7,800), Lisboa ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Croden (+100), Lisboa (-120)
UFC VANCOUVER PICK: Croden

Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available. Check out DraftKings to bet on MMA Odds and use the DraftKings promo code for a great welcome offer.

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DraftKings MMA Scoring

Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.

Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS

Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)

Scoring Notes

  • Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
  • A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
  • Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
  • A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
  • A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jon Litterine plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: JLitterine.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jon Litterine is RotoWire's lead MMA Writer and MMA Editor. He has covered numerous MMA events live. He's also RW's NHL Prospect Analyst. Jon has been writing for RotoWire since 2005. He is a graduate of U Mass-Lowell.
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