This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship
Palm Harbor, Florida
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course) - Par 71 - 7,340 yards
Field - 144 Entrants
Purse - $6.7M
The Preview
The dreaded Snake Pit awaits on the closing stretch of Innisbrook's Copperhead course as the PGA Tour heads to Palm Harbor for the fourth and final leg of the Florida Swing. The Valspar Championship is no cake walk with just one of the past six winners reaching lower than 10-under-par, so expect a bit more carnage than we saw at The PLAYERS where Rory McIlroy put an end to the somewhat laughable notion that the four-time major champion can't close tournaments. This week's field will be nowhere near the caliber of that at TPC Sawgrass, with just 17 of the top-50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking making a short trek to the Innisbrook Resort. Plenty names have elected to spend the week preparing for the upcoming WGC-Dell Technologies Championship, also known as watching the first couple rounds of the NCAA Tournament in other words. The weather should be far from abusive in Palm Harbor throughout the Valspar, but playing the Snake Pit around even-par will still be a battle.
Recent Champions
2018 - Paul Casey
2017 - Adam Hadwin
2016 - Charl Schwartzel
2015 - Jordan Spieth
2014 - John Senden
2013 - Kevin Streelman
2012 - Luke Donald
2011 - Gary Woodland
2010 - Jim Furyk
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach - Iron play is paramount on a course that features five par-3s, while a hefty GIR percentage also lessens the burden of short-game efficiency
SG: Putting - Three-putt avoidance has been huge for past contenders and Paul Casey led the field in putting average with just 25.8 putts per round en route to victory here in 2018
Scrambling - Innisbrook is one of the toughest non-major venues on Tour and short-game specialists have historically fared well as getting it up-and-down is essential
Par-5 scoring - Holes 1, 11 and 14 at Copperhead all measure between 550-600 yards and have each given up birdies at least 30 percent of the time
Yahoo Value Picks - based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Dustin Johnson - $49
This week's clear betting favorite and No. 1 player in the OWGR has won twice in his last five international starts, but most recently strolled to four straight sub-70 scores at the PLAYERS where he finished T5 and led the field in SG: Approach. Johnson's negligible track record at the Valspar could help shift ownership away at the lofty price of $49, but DJ can win anywhere and is second on Tour in SG: Total this season.
Sergio Garcia - $43
Garcia leads the entire PGA Tour in scoring average and SG: Approach through his first 16 measured rounds of the 2018-19 campaign, notching results of T6-T9-T22 from the WGC-Mexico to the PLAYERS Championship. The Spaniard saved his best for last at TPC Sawgrass on Sunday, firing a five-under 67 while ultimately reaching 18 par-breakers for the tournament. He's made the cut in all six career trips to Innisbrook, including top-10s in back-to-back showings his last two visits.
Patrick Reed - $42
Reed has gained strokes around the green in all but one of his last 12 measurable events, putting on a short-game clinic with zero missed cuts since the 2018 PGA Championship. He's top-30 on Tour in SG: Putting and three-putt avoidance as well. Showcasing his fit for the layout, Reed has tied for runner-up honors twice in five Valspar appearances and led the field in par breakers last year.
Glue Guys
Henrik Stenson - $37
Stenson's volatile recent form has been an issue and the Swede is probably a titch overpriced, but he finished 4-T11-T7 at Innisbrook from 2015 to 2017. He's also 17th among the field in SG: Approach in his last 12 rounds and gained 5.2 strokes tee-to-green on the way to a recent top-20 performance at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Lucas Glover - $36
Glover's impressive run of three straight top-10s came to an end with a missed cut at the PLAYERS, but he's still totaled eight top-25s in 10 starts this season. Only Brian Gay and K.J. Choi have made more stops at the Valspar Championship, so Glover has plenty of Innisbrook experience with 10 made cuts in 15 attempts. He's seventh on Tour in GIR percentage, 13th in proximity, third in scrambling and seventh in par-3 scoring.
Kevin Kisner - $35
One of the best putters on Tour, Kiz has finished top-30 in five consecutive starts from the Waste Management Phoenix Open through the PLAYERS to remain top-50 in the OWGR. The 35-year-old also racked up 21 birdies at TPC Sawgrass last week, where he led the field in driving accuracy and tied for eighth in GIR percentage.
Bargain Bin
Jim Furyk - $27
Furyk's price tag is miles below his betting odds this week after the veteran placed solo-second at the PLAYERS on the heels of a top-10 at the Honda Classic as well. Tie in his stellar course history and Furyk will be a popular pick at the Valspar, where he won in 2010 and owns four total top-10s. In his last 12 rounds, Furyk ranks fourth among the field in SG: Total, 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in SG: Putting.
Sung Kang - $23
Kang made his fifth consecutive cut at TPC Sawgrass last week, ranking top-25 in both SG: Approach and SG: Putting en route to 50 greens in regulation and 18 par-breakers. He also finished T6 in his penultimate start at Arnie's place, so he's eighth among this week's field in SG: Putting and 13th in SG: Total through his past eight rounds. Additionally, Kang is seventh in P5: 550-600 efficiency in his past 36 rounds.
J.T. Poston - $20
Somehow we can still snag Poston at the minimum price despite eight consecutive cuts made and a top-25 showing in his PLAYERS Championship debut, carding just seven bogeys all week as he finished top-20 in GIR percentage and scrambling as well. In his third year on the PGA Tour, Poston is 45th in scrambling, ninth in total birdies and 19th in par-5 scoring.
Strategy Tips on Yahoo this week
One of my fades will likely be Adam Hadwin despite an affordable $33 price tag. He should foster some attention as the 2017 Valspar champion to go along with a T12 in his defense effort, but recent form gets the nod over course history and he's lost strokes both approach and putting in three consecutive starts. The Canadian is also just 95th among the field in SG: Around-the-Green in his last 24 rounds, and we want our targets to be respectable in the short-game department heading into the Florida Swing finale.
