This article is part of our Yahoo PGA DFS Picks series.
AT&T Byron Nelson
McKinney, Texas
TPC Craig Ranch - Par 72 - 7,468 yards
Field - 156 entrants
Purse - $8.1M
The Preview
Trinity Forest's brief stint as host of the AT&T Byron Nelson has concluded upon the cancellation of the 2020 edition of the event, which now moves about 40 miles north through Texas' Dallas-Fort Worth area to TPC Craig Ranch where Rowlett Creek figures to become a popular talking point on the broadcast as it runs through a majority of the layout. Softer conditions are expected, however, reducing rollout toward any adjacent water hazards as the field's bombers become rewarded with less fairway run while the par-5s play a bit longer than their yardage on the scorecard might indicate. TPC Craig Ranch's bentgrass greens aren't very undulating by PGA Tour standards, so pins should be relatively accessible as proximity remains paramount for an accumulation of par-breaker opportunities with the eventual winning score certainly capable of reaching 20-under territory. Only two representatives from the top-10 of the Official World Golf Ranking will be in attendance at the AT&T Byron Nelson as the PGA Championship awaits on Kiawah Island next week.
Recent Champions
2020 - None
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest Golf Club)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest Golf Club)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)
2015 - Steven Bowditch (TPC Four Seasons)
2014 - Brendon Todd (TPC Four Seasons)
2013 - Sangmoon Bae (TPC Four Seasons)
2012 - Jason Dufner (TPC Four Seasons)
2011 - Keegan Bradley (TPC Four Seasons)
2010 - Jason Day (TPC Four Seasons)
Key Stats to Victory
SG: Approach
Driving Distance
Birdie-or-Better percentage
SG: Putting (Bentgrass)
Yahoo Value Picks
Based on $200 salary cap
Cream of the Crop
Jon Rahm - $49
Rahm's missed cut at last week's Wells Fargo Championship isn't too worrisome given he lost all his strokes via abnormal short-game blunders. He gained 2.5 strokes off the tee in 36 holes while losing 2.7 around the green at Quail Hollow, which marks the second-worst SG: ATG performance of his entire career. The Spaniard still ranks No. 1 in ball striking over his last 24 rounds, which is a combination of SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach. Rahm is also sixth in par-5 efficiency and 16th in driving distance over his last 36 measured rounds.
Daniel Berger - $47
An early withdrawal announcement from Dustin Johnson (knee) will likely overinflate the rostership percentages for Bryson DeChambeau and Jordan Spieth in this range, lending an opportunity to pivot to someone like Berger, who resides fourth in betting odds and second in my custom stat model but might feel somewhat overpriced to the casual gamer at $47. Over his last 24 rounds, Berger is ninth or better in SG: Off-the-Tee, proximity from 200-plus yards and par-breaker percentage. He also ranks 10th in both SG: Putting on bentgrass over his past 36 rounds and SG: Approach throughout his last 12 rounds. Berger has placed top-15 in five of eight stroke-play events to begin the 2021 calendar year.
Will Zalatoris - $43
Much like the aforementioned Rahm, a rare MC this past week at the Wells Fargo for Zalatoris could function to reduce his lineup exposure, especially given he remains in the $40-plus range in back-to-back tournaments for the first time all season as the salary finally catches up to the deserved buzz. Zalatoris is ninth in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds, 13th in birdie or better percentage over his last 24 and eighth in par-5 scoring over his past 36. The nearby Trinity Christian Academy product weighs only 165 pounds, but he's 21st in driving distance and seventh in total eagles this season.
Glue Guys
Talor Gooch - $35
With six top-25s and a trio of top-10s through 19 starts this season, Gooch has already surpassed his previous career high in single-season earnings by nearly $500k as he closes in on the $2M mark for the first time ever. He's No. 2 in SG: Approach over his past 12 rounds while also ranking top-25 in SG: Putting on bentgrass and P4: 450-500 efficiency over his last 36 rounds.
Marc Leishman - $34
Coming off a T5 at Augusta National, Leishman's long-iron prowess could allow him to shine on the reachable par-5s and lengthier par-3s at TPC Craig Ranch as he ranks top-5 among the field in proximity from 175-200 yards and proximity from 200-plus yards over his last 24 rounds. The Aussie's 24-round sample size also includes a top-10 standing in birdie or better percentage, supplying additional intrigue from a DFS scoring perspective.
Thomas Pieters - $34
Pieters has made the cut in six consecutive international events since returning from a broken finger at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in late January. This stretch includes four straight top-15s from the Saudi International through the Corales Championship, and he posted a T8 result at the Zurich Classic alongside teammate Tom Lewis. The Belgian will be able to showcase his length off the tee at TPC Craig Ranch, though he's also on the positive side of each Strokes Gained subcategory on the European Tour this season.
Bargain Bin
Doug Ghim - $25
Ghim's elite-level approach game grants him sleeper consideration on a weekly basis, but horrific putting metrics primarily on bermuda surfaces have kept him from a top-25 finish since mid-February's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Believe it or not, however, he's actually been an above-average putter from inside 20 feet on bentgrass greens throughout the past 12 months. Ghim is second to none in proximity from 175-200 yards over his last 24 rounds, while he also ranks third in P4: 450-500 efficiency over his past 36.
Luke List - $21
List came through for us at the minimum salary last week with a T6 at Quail Hollow, where he tallied 13 birdies and an eagle to go along with two rounds of 68 or better. Despite opening at a respectable 60/1 to win the AT&T Byron Nelson this week, he climbs just one dollar to $21 in Yahoo contests. The absence of a salary hike will make him a very popular value play, but when the talent at the bottom of the field is so underwhelming, it's tough to fade someone who ranks sixth in driving distance, fourth in par-5 scoring, ninth in eagle percentage and 15th in P4: 450-500 efficiency over his last 36 rounds. On the season, List is seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, second in total eagles and 18th in par-5 scoring average.
Keith Mitchell - $20
Mitchell, who lost 12 strokes putting en route to a 69th-place finish at the Valspar Championship, rebounded last week at Quail Hollow where he gained 3.5 strokes with the flat stick on the way to a top-3 result. He also ranked second among the Wells Fargo field in SG: Off-the-Tee, seventh in driving distance and 11th in SG: Approach. Over his last 24 rounds, Mitchell is fourth in SG: OTT and sixth in birdie-or-better percentage.
