Weekly Preview: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational

TPC Southwind
Memphis, TN

The PGA Tour heads south as the final run-up to the FedExCup Playoffs gets underway. 

The actual hunt for playoff spots will primarily take place at the alternate-event Barracuda Championship, as most eligible players teeing it up in Tennessee are already safely in the postseason. However, the final WGC event of the season will go a long way toward determining who plays in the TOUR Championship in just over a month. That's a huge deal, as with only 30 players qualifying for that event, everyone is guaranteed a nice payout and a shot at the mega millions that come with winning the FedEx Cup.

As for the matter at hand, this will be the third year this tournament is held at TPC Southwind, which means we will have some course history to fall back on. An unknown variable will be how those that played in the Olympics will respond to all the recent travel, and in addition, we have a lot of guys who haven't played since the Open Championship. 

It's going to be an interesting week, and how you approach those that played in Japan and those who have taken an extended break will determine your success in your leagues this week. My advice is to go all-in on your gut. If you think the travel is too much for those that played last week, stick to that and avoid anyone who took a shot at gold. If you think that the Olympic golfers have an advantage because they played more recently, that's well within your rights.

LAST YEAR

Justin Thomas shot a final-round 65 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Daniel Berger, Phil Mickelson, Brooks Koepka and Tom Lewis.

FAVORITES

Brooks Koepka (12-1)

This is interesting. I know Koepka finished runner-up here last year and played well down the stretch, but it's still shocking to see him listed as the top dog in a non-major. It's not like this field is weak, as nearly everyone eligible to play is in attendance. Course history will be a huge factor, and that plays right into Koepka's hands, as in addition to last year's second-place result he won this event in 2019 and carded a top-5 in 2018. If he's motivated, he should be in the mix.

Xander Schauffele (14-1)

Schauffele has now officially accomplished every goal a professional golfer can have with the exception of a major championship win. That major will almost certainly come at some point, but he will have to wait until next year. I know Schauffele is on a roll, but I have a hard time believing he can come down from the high of winning a gold medal in time to contend in Memphis. Add to that the travel and the field he's up against, and the mission gets even more impossible.

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

The latest professional golfer to enter the "elite" category, Morikawa will take another stab at a WGC win. He has a lot going for him, specifically his recent form, but he has only one start here and he managed just a T20. That's not a horrible result, but in a short field it isn't a great one either. With that said, it'll be a long time before I bet against Morikawa again. He's one of a few golfers on Tour who is a threat to win every time he tees it up.

THE NEXT TIER

Dustin Johnson (20-1)

DJ ended last year on about as high a note is possible, but since then, he hasn't resembled the player that dominated the PGA Tour in 2020. This next stretch will mark his last chance to make something of his season, and I have a feeling he has a run in him. His track record here is solid, with a T12 last year and a T3 in 2018, but this is more based on a hunch that he's poised to come through in the weeks ahead.

Louis Oosthuizen (22-1)

Credit where credit is due. I doubted that Oosthuizen would have enough gas left in the tank to contend at the 3M Open just a week after missing out on an Open Championship victory, but there he was again, contending before coming up just short. It's clear he was in the zone as recently as two weeks ago, but the question remains, is he still? I'm not going to doubt him right now, so I'm all-in on the Oosty train.

Matt Fitzpatrick (30-1)

It remains to be seen if Fitzpatrick will be yet another in a long line of Europeans who never reached their full potential stateside, but he is still young and is still playing at a high level. If he's going to break through on the PGA Tour, this would certainly be an impressive spot to do so, but he has shown signs that he likes this course, posting a T6 in 2020 and a T4 in 2019. There could be a post-Olympic hangover for some in the field, so the timing might be perfect for Fitzpatrick.

LONG SHOTS

Phil Mickelson (100-1)

Do I think that Mickelson will win this week? No, but he won a major not that long ago, finished runner-up here last year and he's 100-1! If you made a checklist of items you want from a long-shot option, he would check nearly every box. He is over 50, however, and we know that age can prevent even the best golfers from stringing two good events together, but you never know. No one expected him to win a major at this point, so why is a WGC win out of the question?

Cameron Champ (100-1)

His odds are long and this field is loaded, but Champ has always been thought of as a guy with a ton of potential and he's coming off a win at the 3M Open, so why not? If he's truly destined to be a great player, he will need to start picking up some impressive wins. It's not yet clear how high he can go, but this a prime opportunity for him.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Justin Thomas - He's not listed above because he's not among the top three favorites and his odds are too low to place him in the next category, but he's someone to look at this week. Thomas won this event last year, and while he hasn't been at his best this season, there's still time to make something of it. A lot of OAD players likely still have Thomas available, so he's bound to be selected by many.

Moderately-owned Pick: Collin Morikawa - He'd likely be selected by all kinds of OAD players this week, but I'm guessing that most have used him already. For those that have not, it's either here or the TOUR Championship in September. Considering this week's purse, though, and the fact a good deal oOAD leagues now forego the TOUR Championship because of its lopsided prize structure, this may be the last/best spot to deploy Morikawa.

Lightly-owned Pick: Louis Oosthuizen - If the field weren't loaded he'd be more popular, but for anyone who has used up the elite players, Oosthuizen could be your man. I'm concerned about the extra week off, but he was on fire when we last saw him. It took a lot of intestinal fortitude to rebound from his latest near-miss, so I doubt he'll have trouble with the time off.

Buyer Beware: Bryson DeChambeau - There's something off about DeChambeau right now, and I'm not talking about his health. Even prior to that he was not on his game, and yes, we all know about the driver, but it was something more than that. For most of this season he hasn't had the same spark that drove him to new heights in 2020, and I don't expect him to find that in the next month.

Last Week: Cam Davis - T28 - $44,220

Season Total: $7,028,832

This Week: Collin Morikawa - Luckily I managed to save a few solid players to close out my season, and it's time to use them, so I'll start with Morikawa. I considered Thomas and Koepka, but I can't look past Morikawa's form right now and I want to see JT have some success before deploying him. Koepka was my second choice this week because I'm not sure where I'll use him down the road and his track record here is solid, but I want to use Morikawa while he's hot.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Collin Morikawa ($12,000)
Middle Range: Matt Fitzpatrick ($10,000)
Lower Range: Phil Mickelson ($8,000)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Tony Finau - T28

Streak: 3

This Week: N/A