Weekly Preview: The Honda Classic

The Honda Classic

PGA National - Champion Course
Palm Beach Gardens, FL

The PGA Tour heads to Florida for this week's Honda Classic.

You know those great fields we've had the past couple weeks? Well, it's payback time, as once again we get, not quite a paper-thin field, but a thin one nonetheless. Now, for the average fan that might mean that chores around the house look more appealing that spending a Saturday or Sunday afternoon watching golf, but we're not average fans, are we? That's the beauty of fantasy sports, it can turn what looks like a boring event into must-see TV. Okay, maybe not must-see, but tell me that you're not watching if one of your guys is in the hunt on the weekend and the more teams/players and wagers you have, the better the chance you have a reason to watch. It's really quite diabolical. Who came up with the concept of wagering on sports and fantasy sports anyway? They should be revered in the history books, right? Okay, maybe it's just us folks that think like that, but let's face it, the people that run The Honda Classic are sure glad there are people like us around. Okay, so as for this week, The Honda Classic has been around a long time and the current location has been its home since 2007, which we love.

LAST YEAR

Matt Jones shot a final-round 68 on his way to a five-stroke victory over Brandon Hagy.

FAVORITES

Sungjae Im (10-1)

No offense to Im, but if you needed more evidence on the strength of this field, look no further than Im not only being the favorite, but the clear favorite. His record here is good, but it's by no means Webb Simpson at the Wyndham Championship or Hideki Matsuyama at the WM Phoenix Open. It's just good. He won this event in 2020 and finished T8 this past year. He also has a T51, so good, not great. His form is pretty good, but not great. There's plenty to like about Im, just not at this number.

Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)

A couple years ago, seeing Fleetwood's name near the top of the odds chart would have made a lot of sense, but now, I'm not sure. There isn't much in his way, but there are a few names that I might put ahead of him, at least from an odds perspective. I would expect Fleetwood to fall out of the top three before they tee off on Thursday. Fleetwood is this high on the list primarily because he's finished top-5 every time he's teed it up here. One problem though -- he's only played here twice. That's what we call an insufficient sample in the research world.

Daniel Berger (16-1)

Berger is currently tied with Louis Oosthuizen at this number, but Berger seems like the better play, so he'll round out the favorites. Berger got off to a decent start with top-20s in his first two PGA Tour starts in 2022, but he missed the cut in his most recent appearance in Phoenix. That MC was most likely due to a back issue, one that he claims is no longer an issue. If that's the case, then Berger should be treated like one of the favorites.

THE NEXT TIER

Brooks Koepka (20-1)

Yes, I realize that betting on Koepka outside of a major is usually fool's errand, but on paper, he could absolutely dismantle this field if he was motivated and had his game anywhere near peak. The problem of course is that we don't know if he'll be motivated, and his game doesn't appear to be peaking right now. So why take him? He's Brooks Koepka, it's a weak field and he's 20-1. He did play well here before, finishing runner-up in 2019.

Keith Mitchell (35-1)

There was some steam on Mitchell two weeks ago at the WM and he kind of came through with a top-10, but obviously we'll want to see more out of him. His name certainly sticks out among those around him on the odds chart, but there's a reason for that. He won this event in 2019 and he enters in pretty good form. Sure, three of his four starts here have been a failure, but we aren't asking for consistency, we're asking him to play out of his mind this week...like he did in 2019.

Alex Noren (35-1)

What a difference a week makes. This past week we had guys like Will Zalatoris at 40-1 and now we have Noren at 35-1 and Jhonattan Vegas at 40-1, but I digress. There really isn't a lot to like from this group of players between the favorites and the long shots, but Noren played well a couple weeks ago in Arizona, and he does have a solo third on his resume here. Like I said, not much to like.

LONG SHOTS

Matt Jones (50-1)

What are the odds that Jones can successfully defend his title? 50-1 to be precise, but seriously, could Jones pull this off? To the doubters I would ask, what were the odds he could go 62-61 on the weekend at the Sentry. My point being, he obviously can run extremely hot, and he's proven that he can get around this course, so why not? His form isn't bad either as he posted a T15 this past week at the Genesis.

Denny McCarthy (55-1)

I'm sticking with McCarthy until he wins. Okay, he's got one more week. McCarthy has played well this season, but it hasn't resulted in anything better than a T6, yet he enters this event 33rd in the FedExCup Standings. He's shown the consistency this season, but we need to see some more upside. Maybe that comes this week, as he posted a very nice T3 here last year.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Sungjae Im - These are always tough weeks to predict ownership in OAD leagues when the favorites aren't popular players. Im however has always been a very reliable player and I would expect those in the upper half of their leagues to be all over him. For everyone else though, I would expect a wide range of players.

Moderately-owned Pick: Daniel Berger - Again, if healthy, Berger should be considered among the favorites. It's not that he has a great track record here, but when healthy, Berger is probably the second best player in the field. Will that translate to a good result? Can't say, but if Berger is ready to go, I don't see anything worse than a top-20.

Lightly-owned Pick: Keith Mitchell - Make no mistake, there will be some people on Mitchell, but just not as many as there should be. A lot of OAD players refuse to take anyone ranked lower than say 40th in the world because there are generally less than 40 events throughout the season, but that doesn't make much sense to me. You take each event as it comes and make the best pick. Sure, sometimes you look ahead, but in this case, if you're feeling Mitchell, then I have no issue with you using him over Im or Berger.

Buyer Beware: Cameron Young - This space is usually reserved for someone with a little more cache, but Young drew a lot of attention with his runner-up showing this past week at the Genesis and I'm assuming that some people might be on him. Normally I'd be all for the momentum angle, but we are flipping coasts, and with that comes all kinds of different playing conditions, including the grass. I'll be impressed if Young can show well this week, but I'm not expecting him to.

Last Week: Bubba Watson - MC - $0

Season Total: $3,186,724

This Week: Keith Mitchell - I'm going to put my money where my mouth is and take a chance on Mitchell. A couple of reasons for this. The first is that I'm just not sure about any the of the favorites -- no one really sticks out to me. I'd lean Berger over the others, but it's not a strong lean. Mitchell has the form and the track record here, so that's the direction I'm going.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Daniel Berger $11,800
Middle Range: Keith Mitchell $10,400
Lower Range: Camilo Villegas $8,800

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Dustin Johnson - MC

Streak: 0

This week: Sungjae Im - While I'm not taking the chalk in the OAD format, I'm more than happy to go that route in this format. And no, it has nothing to do with getting burned by DJ this past week. Oops. We'll move on. Im is 3-for-3 here and I see no reason for him to not play the weekend.