Weekly Preview: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Arnold Palmer Invitational

Bay Hill Club
Orlando, FL

The PGA Tour heads north to honor one of golf's greats,  Arnold Palmer.

We will have a classic "tweener" field -- one that is not great, but certainly better than what we saw at The Honda Classic. It's unfortunate that a classic event like this can no longer draw a great field, but with Palmer no longer around to draw in the great players, this event simply falls back into the mix of normal PGA Tour stops that the pros must choose to attend or not each year. Let's not forget that these guys are human and not everyone can play every week like Sungjae Im. Even Im has slowed down this year. The grind eventually catches up with everyone, and sooner or later the ones that realize they need to balance their schedule are the ones that accomplish the most over their careers. With that said, I'm way off course here. We're talking about the old Bay Hill Invitational, right?

If you follow the same folks as I do on Twitter, then you already know about the rough this week and you've undoubtedly seen pictures of said rough from every angle. While it is formidable, I will say this: don't let it scare you to the point of taking the most accurate drivers on Tour. Yes, accuracy will be important, but Kevin Kisner is not the favorite just because he hits it straight off the tee. There's much more to winning here than finding the fairway.

All odds via golfodds.com as of 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. 

LAST YEAR

Bryson DeChambeau shot a final-round 71 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Lee Westwood.

FAVORITES

Jon Rahm (8-1)

Rahm is not 7-1 to win like he was in his first few starts, but he's as close as you can get, which is just ridiculous. Have you seen the list of winners on the PGA Tour this year? Peak Tiger Woods is no longer out there, and no one should have a single digit on the left side. Now, as soon as Rahm wins, which he will at some point, his odds will go into ridiculous territory once again. As for this week, I can't recommend Rahm at these odds. He's a first-timer here and we haven't seen his best form this season.

Rory McIlroy (12-1)

If Rahm has no business being in single digits, McIlroy shouldn't be at 12-1, but that's where the line sits because the oddsmakers know that they'll still get action at this number. It might be a little surprising to see McIlroy as the second favorite at a PGA Tour event as he hasn't been "peak McIlroy" for years, but he's not that far removed from his most recent win on the PGA Tour and his track record here is outstanding. In fact, McIlroy at this number is more justifiable than Rahm is at his because of the track record. McIlroy won this event in 2018 and has posted five top-10s in seven tries here.

Scottie Scheffler (18-1)

There were two golfers listed at these odds to start the week, but I chose Scheffler to round out the favorites group over Viktor Hovland for two reasons. First, Hovland's track record here is oddly not very good. He's seemingly played well everywhere, but he's never been better than T40 here in three starts. Second, Scheffler's form is better. Scheffler picked up his first PGA Tour win two starts ago and he backed that up with a T7 in his next start. Scheffler is not going to get complacent because he finally won an event, he's going to take his game to the next level and he's going to do it now.

THE NEXT TIER

Will Zalatoris (25-1)

Speaking of taking his game to the next level, that's exactly what Zalatoris has been trying to do over the past year and while he's had a lot of success, he's still yet to find that first PGA Tour win. He came oh so close at the Farmers in January, but it wasn't to be. He's played only once since then and managed a T26 at the Genesis. Sometimes these guys need time to flush a close call out of their system and hopefully these past few weeks have done just that for Zalatoris. He'll get back on track soon and it could be this week as he played well here in his only start this past year when he posted a T10.

Sungjae Im (25-1)

I was talking to a couple friends that are in the same OAD pool as myself this past week about finding the rhythm throughout the season when making picks. When it's going right, everything is lined up perfectly and of course the opposite is true. I bring this up because Im was perhaps the most popular OAD pick this past week and he crashed and burned. For a OAD player in rhythm, they would have avoided Im last week and perhaps will take him in this spot. There's reason to think he'll bounce back as his track record here is great. Im has two top-3s in three starts here and he's finished no worse than T21.

Matt Fitzpatrick (25-1)

If Fitzpatrick is going to break through for his first PGA Tour win soon, this looks like the most likely spot to do so. His track record here is strong, with top-10s in his past three starts, and his current form seems good as well. Fitzpatrick posted a T6 at Pebble Beach in early February and followed that up with a T10 at the WM Phoenix Open. He's still just 27, so he's got plenty of time to find wins, but the pressure will only continue to mount. Perhaps he takes care of that win this week.

LONG SHOTS

Jason Day (60-1)

Day showed earlier this year that he's not quite ready to call it a career. Yes, I know he's just 34 and we shouldn't be thinking about the end of his career for another decade, but with all the issues he's had physically in his time on the PGA Tour, it feels like he's aged a decade in the past few years. With that said, he showed some solid form at the Farmers where he contended and eventually landed in a tie for 3rd-place. He followed that with a top-25 at Pebble and we haven't seen him since. Hopefully he still has his form, because he could do some damage his week if he's on. Day won this event in 2016 and although that's his only top-10 in 11 starts, he's been forced to WD in two of his past three tries here. It seems as though his body has broken down around this time the in recent years, but the couple weeks he took off leading up to this event should help.

Chris Kirk (60-1)

Kirk has a couple things going for him this week, including a nice track record here which includes four top-15s in his past five starts at this event. His form also looks good, with top-15s in his two most recent starts on the PGA Tour. Even though he stumbled to the finish, Kirk managed to hang on for T7 at The Honda Classic.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-owned Pick: Rory McIlroy - Rahm is the favorite, but if OAD players haven't used him yet, it's because they are saving him for a bigger event. McIlroy is no longer a guy that OAD players save for bigger events, so they have to find the best spot for him during the regular tour stops. This is probably his best spot as his track record here is very impressive. I can't argue with using McIlroy in this spot.

Moderately-owned Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick - There are a lot of good options to consider and I have a feeling that Fitzpatrick will be a fairly popular pivot from McIlroy. Like many Europeans before him, Fitzpatrick has failed to live up to the hype to this point in his career, but it's not like he's played poorly. Expectations were set awfully high for Fitzpatrick, and like I mentioned earlier, he still has plenty of time to live up to them.

Lightly-owned Pick: Chris Kirk - The ownership this week should be fairly spread out after McIlroy, so there are actually a lot of options in this spot, but Kirk is certain to have low ownership. After a couple of down years, Kirk has made a nice comeback in recent years and has become fairly reliable, so although he's a deep sleeper, you should get something decent from him.

Buyer Beware: Sepp Straka - I mentioned earlier how Scheffler is using his win to launch him into the next tier on the PGA Tour but not everyone is in that class. I'm not sure what to make of Straka, but I don't see him as a guy who is going to go nuts now that he's won on the PGA Tour. If that's true, then he's probably in for a tough week as it's very tough to play well the week following such a big breakthrough.

Last Week: Keith Mitchell  - T9 - $194,000

Season Total: $3,380,724

This Week: Sungjae Im - I'm not sure if this is a clever move or if it reeks of desperation. I bring up the latter because my OAD picks have not been great in 2022 and it feels like I'm out of the previously mentioned "rhythm". Maybe this is my effort to get back into the rhythm by taking someone who most took this past week, only to miss the cut. It's not always a great strategy to take someone off a missed cut, but there's no rule about having to play poorly after a missed cut. Maybe it was just an off week, hopefully it was just an off week. My second choice was Fitzpatrick.

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Rory McIlroy $11,900
Middle Range: Keith Mitchell $10,200
Lower Range: Tom Hoge $8,700

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

Last Week: Sungjae Im - MC

Streak: 0

This Week: Rory McIlroy - There's nothing quite like this format. It seems so easy to pick one guy to make a cut each week, especially when you have guys with outstanding track records at a given event, but as Im proved this past week, anything can happen in this game, which is why I'm not going to say that, "I can't see how McIlroy could miss the cut this week," even though I am supremely confident he will play the weekend.