Weekly PGA Preview: Farmers Insurance Open

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines
San Diego, CA

The PGA Tour heads to San Diego for the latest edition of the Farmers Insurance Open.

Is this the week we see some chalk win out, or will another long shot come through? It has been a wild start to the season with three dark horses winding up in the winner's cirlc, but that trend will likely end here. And why is that? Well, the golf course has a lot to do with it. Torrey Pines -- specifically the South Course -- is quite the test, and more often than not, after three rounds on that course the cream rises to the top. I looked back at the last 10 champions here, and I count two long shots. As such, there's roughly a 20 percent chance another emerges, but I'll take my chances with the other part of the equation.

I wouldn't call this a loaded field, but there is a lot of depth. Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are not in attendance, but many of those right behind them in the world rankings are, including Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Collin Morikawa. As for the course -- or courses -- we're at Torrey Pines, and both the North and South tracks will be utilized. For those playing daily fantasy sports contests, the North Course generally plays much easier than the South Course, but neither is a layup.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 5:30 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Max Homa shot a final-round 66 on his way to two-stroke victory over Keegan Bradley.

FAVORITES

Xander Schauffele (9-1)

Schauffele is the favorite based on his status and current form, because it certainly isn't based on his course history. Don't get me wrong, he has fared alright here and posted a runner-up in 2021, but on the whole, his track record here isn't very good. His form is fine and he has shown the ability to play well at Torrey Pines, so I wouldn't completely discount him. Still, I don't like getting less than 10-1 on him in this spot.

Patrick Cantlay (11-1)

This is another case of status determining position on the betting board. Cantlay's track record at this event is terrible. He has played here only three times and his best showing was a T51 in 2018. Cantlay's best showing on this course came at the 2021 U.S. Open, where he finished T15. That's a bit odd considering his track record at majors and at Torrey Pines, but it does at least show that he can get around the South Course. With that said, there's no way I'm taking him at this price.

Max Homa (12-1)

It's always tough to back the defending champion because the chances of going back-to-back are so slim, but then again, the odds of winning any given week are pretty slim, so I wouldn't let that deter me from taking Homa. Homa loves to play in California and his track record proves that. His history here is all over the place, with four missed cuts in seven starts, but he does have the win from his past year under his belt, along with another top-10 in 2019. Among the favorites, Homa looks like the best play.

THE NEXT TIER

Min Woo Lee (20-1)

Lee is on most breakout player lists, and he got off to a decent start at The American Express with a T21. This will be Lee's first appearance in this event, so there's a bit of an unknown in play, but he's loaded with talent and is bound to win at some point.

Tony Finau (25-1)

Finau's form isn't that great, but man does he play well at Torrey Pines. Finau has missed the cut here just once in nine starts and has finished top-10 five times. Four of those top-10s were top-6s as well, including a runner-up in 2021.

Keegan Bradley (33-1)

Bradley has the best combination of form and track record entering this tournament. He was runner-up in his most recent start at the Sony and he finished runner-up at this event in 2023. He posted a top-5 here in 2017 and 2018. Everything appears to be lined up for a strong finish.

LONG SHOTS

Harris English (50-1)

I'm a little surprised this number hasn't gone lower. English posted a top-10 at the Sony two weeks ago, and while his track record here is a bit scattered he does have some high points. His best showing in this event was a T2 in 2015, and he followed that up with a T14 in 2017 and a T8 in 2018. He also carded a solo third here at the 2021 U.S. Open. Perhaps his three consecutive missed cuts in this event are scaring people away, but he had some tough times in recent years, so those can be discounted a bit.

Adrian Meronk (55-1)

If you haven't heard of Meronk yet, you're going to hear a lot about him this week, as he's bound to be near the top of the leaderboard if he can carry his momentum over from across the pond. Meronk finished runner-up to McIlroy this past week in Dubai, and that was no fluke, as he is ranked 39th in the Official World Golf Ranking. This guy looks really good and it's only a matter of time before his odds are in the 20-1 range.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Max Homa - There's little doubt that Homa will play well at Torrey Pines, but you may want to save him for a Signature Event. As I mentioned this past week, when it comes to the upper-tier golfers, only a win or a runner-up provides enough value in a OAD pool. I'm not taking him this week, but I can't call this a poor pick, either.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Tony Finau - If his form was better or if Homa wasn't in the picture, Finau would be the most popular pick, but as it is there will be plenty of people avoiding him. That could be a mistake, as he's probably the most reliable player at Torrey Pines in the field.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Adrian Meronk - As I alluded to earlier, not everyone is aware of Meronk, but that's probably going to change. With that said, he's not a sure thing, so most OAD players will probably look elsewhere. Meronk has as much upside as anyone in the field, so this could end up being a great pick in your OAD pool.

Buyer Beware: Ludvig Aberg - Betting against Aberg is a scary proposition, but it looks like he might be hitting a bit of a wall. His two starts this year have produced less-than-desirable results and this will be his first appearance at Torrey Pines. He's listed at 20-1 odds, and that seems a bit ambitious.

This week: Harris English - I went back and forth on this pick quite a bit. On the one hand, there's Homa, who seems like a lock, but I might want him for later. Then there's Finau, who also seems like a lock but will be pretty popular and might be worth saving. Meronk is on the radar, and if this was an easier course perhaps I'd take him, but I decided I want someone with some history here.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Max Homa ($11,600)
Middle Range: Keegan Bradley ($10,500)
Lower Range: Sam Ryder ($8,900)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Tony Finau - His form isn't great, but it isn't terrible either. I have a feeling that a trip to Torrey Pines will be good for him, and as such, he should play very well. Remember he only has one missed cut in nine tries, and that was his only finish outside the top 25.

Previous Results