Weekly PGA Preview: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach Golf Links
Pebble Beach, CA

The PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for what is now a Signature Event in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

I mentioned this past week that the run of underdog winners was likely to come to an end, but that didn't happen as Matthieu Pavon emerged victorious. As legend has it, if a long shot wins five weeks in a row on the PGA Tour, we get eight more weeks of winter, so it has to stop this week, it must. The good news is, we've got an elevated event, which means a whole lot of firepower at the top of the betting board. A big name has to win, right? The bad news is the weather could level the playing field somewhat. Rain is in the forecast all week, which is not only going to make it more difficult to score, but it's going to slow things down a lot, especially with the amateurs in play on Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to be light for most of the week though, so even though the first couple rounds could be very frustrating, we should still see the cream rise to the top. Saturday looks fine as well, but Sunday could be a problem. There is a lot of rain along with heavy winds in the forecast, but if things look as bad as forecasted, they might not even wrap this up on Sunday. From my experience, the tour is much more likely these days to delay the rounds rather than play through really nasty weather, so there's a chance that no one has to play through the worst of this. Whatever happens, the weather is bound to bring some unexpected names into the mix come Sunday.

All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook as of 8:30 PM ET Tuesday.

LAST YEAR

Justin Rose shot a final-round 66 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Brendan Todd and Brandon Wu.

FAVORITES

Scottie Scheffler (8-1)

Scheffler is going to be atop the odds chart for the foreseeable future, but he's going through one of those stretches right now where he's not playing his best, so is it smart to play him at these odds? I think you know the answer as it's rarely smart to play anyone at less than 10-1. Factor in the weather and that this will be Scheffler's first time at this event and that only bolsters my opinion that there's no value with Scheffler at this price.

Rory McIlroy (8-1)

This will be McIlroy's first start on the PGA Tour this year, but it's not like he hasn't been playing competitive golf. McIlroys has been tearing it up overseas and comes into the week with a lot of momentum. That's the good news. The bad news is, he's only played here once, and it ended with a missed cut. Throw in the rain and the odds just don't provide enough value.

Viktor Hovland (12-1)

Now we're getting into the range where you could think about making a move. Hovland ended this past season as the best player on the planet and he looks to keep that momentum going this year. He's played this event twice with mixed results. He's made the cut both times, but his best finish was a T13 in 2023. On the bright side, Hovland showed this past year that he can handle the rain in tough spots, and he placed inside the top-15 at the water-logged Masters and Open Championship this past year.

THE NEXT TIER

Patrick Cantlay (18-1)

Cantlay's form alone makes him worth a look, but it's really the track record that's behind this pick. Cantlay has made the cut in all of his six starts here and while he didn't get much accomplished on the weekend here in his first three starts, he's really turned it up over his past three starts. Cantlay finished T11 in 2020, T3 in 2021 and T4 in 2022. He didn't play here this past year, perhaps because it wasn't a signature event, but he's back this year.

Jordan Spieth (20-1)

Spieth is still a really good golfer and at his best, can compete with anyone, but there's no doubt that he's not the force of nature that he was nearly a decade ago. With that said, he has shown the ability to come up big when he's on and this could be one of those weeks. The main reason is his track record here, which includes 11 cuts made in 11 starts, six top-10s and a win in 2016. The moral of the story is, never count out Spieth at Pebble Beach.

Sam Burns (40-1)

Most of the picks to this point have been driven by track record at Pebble Beach, but this one has nothing to do with that. Burns has only played here once and although he made the cut, he finished T39, which is neither here nor there. This pick is based on form, and while Burns isn't on a heater right now, but he might be soon. Burns runs very hot and cold, and it looks like he's about to start burning hot. He finished T6 in his most recent start, but that would have been much better without a final-round 71. His first three rounds were fantastic, and while he couldn't keep the momentum going, I have a feeling he will hit the ground running.

LONG SHOTS

Nicolai Hojgaard (50-1)

This will be a big step up in class, as unlike this past week, Hojgaard will be up against the big boys. Will it matter though? Hojgaard came into this season with a lot of hype and to this point, he's lived up to it, but if he's to take the next step, he'll need to get on top of elite fields like we have in this event. I think he's good enough, but he'll have to prove it on the course.

Brian Harman (90-1)

A bit of a stretch here as this pick is based a lot on how Harman played in the rain at the Open Championship this past year. The problem with the pick is that Harman played out of his mind that week and he's not likely to replicate that again, but then again, he proved he could handle tough conditions and make no mistake, these conditions are going to eliminate many players in this field before they even start on Thursday. Harman's track record here is not great, but he has made the cut in four of five starts.

ONE-AND-DONE LEAGUES

Highly-Chosen Pick: Jordan Spieth - If OAD players are paying attention to the forecast, that will scare most of them off the top-tier guys like Scheffler and McIlroy. That leaves us with the next tier players like Spieth, who happens to have a great track record here and doesn't seem to get too bothered with poor weather.

Moderately-Chosen Pick: Patrick Cantlay - Cantlay is a solid option  if for no other reason than there's no way you are saving him for a major. There are probably better spots to use him on the schedule, but his track record here is pretty solid, and the weather could mitigate the advantage that Scheffler and McIlroy have on any given week.

Lightly-Chosen Pick: Brian Harman - I mentioned that my reasoning for taking Harman was a bit of a stretch, but that only means that he's likely to be lightly-owned. There's two ways to approach this week. The first is that this is a Signature Event, and you are deploying a big gun no matter what. The other is that the rain is going to wreak havoc and you don't want to burn a top player. If you're in the latter camp, then Harman is a good option.

Buyer Beware: Any top-tier golfer - As I've alluded to several times already, the weather is going to level the playing field, so I'd be very cautious about deploying a big name. It's a Signature Event, so you can't go too far off the beaten path, but I would recommend passing on a top-5 golfer.

This Week: Jordan Spieth - I mentioned that you want to stay away from top-5 golfers, which means that Spieth is about as high as I could possibly go. That scares me a bit, because the weather could ruin anyone's game, but Spieth loves playing here and he's not going to give up easily like some others might if the conditions get too tough.

Previous Results

FANDUEL PICKS

Upper Range: Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
Middle Range: Sam Burns ($10,300)
Lower Range: Brendon Todd ($8,400)

SURVIVOR LEAGUES

This Week: Jordan Spieth - I'm doubling up this week, but I feel I need to as Spieth is probably the most reliable player in the field when you factor in where they are playing. Not only has Spieth made the cut in all 11 starts, he's finished outside the top-25 just twice in those 11 starts. Unless the weather kills his game, he's making it to the weekend.

Previous Results