This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week, but many of the big names we saw last week will take the week off, as with the new bunched schedule there aren't as many opportunities to get a break. For many of the top players on the PGA Tour it's either skip this week or the Texas Open in two weeks; most of the top-64 will want to play the Dell Match Play Championship next week. That said, there are some high-end players in the field this week, including a couple who played well last week.
This week: Valspar Championship - Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead Course, Palm Harbor, Fla.
Last Year: Paul Casey shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Patrick Reed.
FAVORITES:
Dustin Johnson (9-2)
It's rare to see a guy who has never made a cut an event, installed as such a heavy favorite, but with little firepower in the field, the Valspar is DJ's for the taking. DJ played surprisingly well last week, and although he's yet to make a cut here in two starts, he obviously has the talent to blow away the field. That said, the odds are a little steep and if you've yet to use DJ in a one-and-done format, you might as well just wait for Pebble.
Jason Day (9-1)
The trend among the favorites this week is –
The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week, but many of the big names we saw last week will take the week off, as with the new bunched schedule there aren't as many opportunities to get a break. For many of the top players on the PGA Tour it's either skip this week or the Texas Open in two weeks; most of the top-64 will want to play the Dell Match Play Championship next week. That said, there are some high-end players in the field this week, including a couple who played well last week.
This week: Valspar Championship - Innisbrook Resort, Copperhead Course, Palm Harbor, Fla.
Last Year: Paul Casey shot a final-round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Patrick Reed.
FAVORITES:
Dustin Johnson (9-2)
It's rare to see a guy who has never made a cut an event, installed as such a heavy favorite, but with little firepower in the field, the Valspar is DJ's for the taking. DJ played surprisingly well last week, and although he's yet to make a cut here in two starts, he obviously has the talent to blow away the field. That said, the odds are a little steep and if you've yet to use DJ in a one-and-done format, you might as well just wait for Pebble.
Jason Day (9-1)
The trend among the favorites this week is – course history be damned. Day has had little success here in six starts, but like Johnson, his talent is much higher than most of the field, which means he's one of the favorites. Day also played well last week, but he failed to mount any kind of charge Sunday. While his lack of success at this event is a little concerning, his odds are much easier to swallow and there's no obvious place to use him down the road like there is for DJ.
Jon Rahm (9-1)
Rahm was calm, cool and collected during a post-round interview Saturday and, suffice to say, he had everyone fooled. What we should have realized is that it's easy to say the right things after posting a 64. He'd just played a nearly perfect round. Of course we could surmise that he'd have a great mindset during the final round. What we saw was much more of the same. Rahm still has issues keeping calm when things go south and until he addresses those issues, he won't win a major. He's certainly capable of winning an event like this, though.
Mid-Tier GOLFERS:
Sergio Garcia (16-1)
Garcia hasn't been lights-out this season, but he's been pretty good. In four starts, all in 2019, Garcia has two top-10s and three total top-25s. He doesn't have the high-end finishes here that you'd like to see, but he does have two top-10s and he's never missed a cut in six tries. Garcia's best effort at this event came last year when he posted a T4.
Patrick Reed (20-1)
Reed got off to a slow start in 2018, but it was right about this time that his game started to come around. Not many people could have seen a Masters win on the horizon, but that's exactly what happened. Perhaps Reed is ramping up to something even bigger a month from now. If he is, we should see him in contention this week. Reed has posted runner-ups in two of his last four starts at this event.
Jim Furyk (30-1)
The idea of Furyk being 30-1 at any event this year seemed ludicrous as recently as a week ago, but after a very serious run at the Players last week, anything is possible. There's also the real possibility that he's out of gas after said run, but considering his track record here, I'm expecting another solid effort. Furyk won here in 2010, posted a top-10 here last year and has made the cut at this event in nine of 10 tries.
LONGSHOTS
Brandt Snedeker (55-1)
My longshots this week will be a pair of guys that don't have much of a track record at this event, but looked awfully good this last weekend. Snedeker wasn't exactly trending in the right direction entering last week as he had failed to crack the top-50 in any of his previous four starts, but it just takes one good round to get the confidence back and he sure looked confident Sunday.
Ollie Schniederjans (80-1)
Schniederjans appearance near the top of the leaderboard Sunday was not much of a surprise to those that have been following the PGA Tour the last few years. Schniederjans has play well in spurts the last few seasons, he's just been unable to sustain momentum for long stretches. Two weeks is not a long stretch, however, and if he brings any of the form we saw last week, into this week's event, we'll see him on Sunday afternoon once again.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Highly Owned pick: Jon Rahm - Much like last week, the picks are going to spread wide this week, but considering Rahm was the 54-hole leader last week and there isn't a spot in the near future that screams "Rahm," a lot of people will probably be on him. I can't argue with the pick as Rahm has proven more than capable of playing well at regular tour stops.
Moderately Owned pick: Patrick Reed - There haven't been any obvious spots to use Reed this season, and I highly doubt that people are saving him for the Masters, so he could be a popular pick this week. Like Rahm, I have no problem with Reed this week as he has the track record here and has played well this season.
Lightly Owned pick: Jim Furyk - Furyk has everything going for him this week, but I doubt many one-and-done players will pull the trigger on him this week based on his age. That could be a mistake though as Furyk isn't that far removed from a $3 million season and enters this week off consecutive top-10s on the PGA Tour.
Buyer Beware: Dustin Johnson - My "buyer beware" picks have done surprisingly well this season, but you have to factor in that in order to qualify for this "honor," the guy has to be among the favorites. In this case, DJ is the favorite, but with no history of success here, I'd be wary of using him here in a one-and-done format.
Last Week: Francesco Molinari (T56) - $27,250; Season - $3,404,884
This Week: Jim Furyk - I chased last week and it burned me as Molinari has nothing from the start, but there's a difference between chasing the guy who won and chasing the guy who almost won. I'm a little concerned that Furyk might be running out of gas, but I think he's worth the risk this week as he's playing his best golf in years.
FANDUEL PICKS
High/Mid/Low: Jon Rahm ($11,700)/Jim Furyk ($10,000)/Ollie Schniederjans ($8,100)
SURVIVOR PICK
Last Week: Sergio Garcia - (T22); Streak - 9
This Week: Jim Furyk - If you had told me prior to the season that I would not only use Furyk in a one-and-done format, but a survivor format as well, I would have said you are crazy and what a weird thing to say. Things change, however, and although Furyk is not the guy who won $5 million five years ago, he's certainly better than what we saw the last two seasons.
