U.S. Open Preview: All In a Day's Work

Not long after Dustin Johnson's win at the St. Jude Classic he was installed as the favorite for this week's U.S. Open. This came as no surprise, however, as the template for the favorite is simple. If Tiger Woods is playing well, then he's the favorite. No, that doesn't make sense, but remember, oddsmakers have to consider who the money is going to come in on, so Tiger in good form has to be installed as the favorite. Since that hasn't happened much in recent years, the other part of the template is more often used, the part that states that you simply take any player ranked in the top 5, or top 10 in some cases, who has won recently.

Dustin Johnson obviously fits that description as he closed this week as the No. 1 player in the world and he just won. I honestly can't argue against how they come up with the favorite, but as I write this, I'm struggling to remember the last time the golfer who everybody expected to win a major, actually won the major. Perhaps Jordan Spieth at the 2015 U.S. Open? There have been 11 majors since Spieth's 2015 U.S. Open win and every one was won by a golfer who wasn't the guy we expected to win.

I know what you're thinking, so what's the point? The point is that golf is like no other sport, except maybe tennis, which changes its surface throughout the season. D.J. is the highest-ranked golfer in the world is at or near top form, but he's not playing the same game this week that he played at the St. Jude. A major tournament in no way resembles a regular PGA Tour stop. The atmosphere is different. The lead-up is different. The course is different. Everything except his equipment, his swing and his caddie are different this week, so why would we put so much weight behind what a golfer did last week? U.S. Open golf pools will ramp up the next couple days and in most of them, D.J. will be the first pick, but as is most often the case, the winner will likely be chosen after that first pick.

This week: The U.S. Open - Shinnecock Hills, Southampton, N.Y.

Last Year: Brooks Koepka shot a final-round 67 on his way to a four-stroke victory over Hideki Matsuyama and Brian Harman.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Jason Day

Day missed the cut at the U.S. Open last year, but last year's Open was unlike most that we've seen in our lifetime, so he gets a pass. Day has been one of the most consistent golfers at the U.S. Open the last five years, with four top-10s in that span. Yes, the course is different each year, but the USGA has a general setup that it uses every year, with the exception of last year of course, and if you are comfortable in that set-up in one place, it usually translates to the next.

Brooks Koepka

Koepka was one of the favorites last week at the St. Jude and obivously dispappointed, but that may work in his favor this week. Although he's the defending champ, expectations will not be as high as they would be if, say, he won last week, like the other guy mentioned in the open. Besides, the state of one's game at a major is not determined by how he played on a non-major setup.

Dustin Johnson

Proof that I'm not fading D.J. this week as he's a solid three on this list. His placement is important, however, as I don't see him as the favorite, rather a strong contender. He's the No. 1-ranked player in the world and he's fared well on U.S. Open tracks before. His inclusion on this list means that he's a contender, but by no means is he a heavy favorite to win this week. No one is, it's golf.

Justin Rose

Although Rose won the 2013 U.S. Open, his track record overall isn't that great. Unlike Jason Day, Rose is hit or miss at the U.S. Open, but he's been so locked in this season that a poor effort this week seems unlikely. Furthermore, it's nice to know that if he is one, Rose can thrive in this format, like he did in 2013. Rose is never the first pick in a major draft, and he shouldn't be this week either, but I'd seriously consider him over Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy.

Bryson DeChambeau

DeChambeau is the only golfer on this list who hasn't had much success at this event, but the way he's playing makes me think he can overcome any challenge, including the USGA. Besides, with the slower pace of play that is customary at a tough U.S. Open venue, DeChambeau will slip right in unnoticed.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Daniel Berger

I mentioned last week that Berger's game just wasn't right and that even though he was the two-time defending champion at the St. Jude Classic, he wasn't a good option in one-and-done formats. The same holds true this week as his track record at the U.S. Open leaves a lot to be desired and since his game is well off, there's no reason to think he even makes the cut this week.

Sergio Garcia

Speaking of well off his game, Garcia enters having missed the cut in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour and the only cut he made during that span resulted in a T70. The T70 came at the Players, where he has a solid track record, which is especially worrisome. Garcia's track record at the U.S. Open isn't strong to begin with, so unless he's figured out some things since his most recent start at the Byron Nelson, expect a short outing this week.

Bubba Watson

The traits a U.S. Open champion needs to succeed are things that Watson just doesn't possess. From accurate drives to ability to work through tough situations, this event just isn't Watson's cup of tea. Watson played very well earlier this year, but he hasn't posted a top-25 since the Masters.

Lucas Glover

The further we get away from Glover's 2009 U.S. Open victory, the more apparent it is that he simply found lightning in the bottle that week. It happens from time to time at a major, not as often now as it did a decade ago, but every once in a while, an underdog gets got for four days and wins the title. Considering he's missed the last six cuts at the U.S. Open, it's highly unlikely that Glover plays well for even one day this week.

Cameron Smith

After top-5s at the WGC Match Play event and the Masters a couple months back, Smith looked like a potential contender at the U.S. Open, but his game has gone off the rails over the last couple months. Smith has missed the cut in his last four events on the PGA Tour and he hasn't broken par in his last three events. His potential is off the charts, but he has some work to do to get back on track.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Brooks Koepka (T30) - $41,061; Season - $5,654,235

This week: Jason Day - I've used most of the big names on the PGA Tour already, but I'm thankful that I have Day in this spot as he's truly my top pick this week. Day has everything going for him this week, including form, U.S. Open success and a strong mental game. Don't underestimate that last point as it's what ends up separating the men from the boys on Sunday.

PGATOUR.COM PICKS

Starters: Brooks Koepka, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose

Bench: Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Ben Crane - (MC); Streak - 0

This week: Jason Day - The U.S. Open is often the toughest survivor event on the schedule as things can go wrong so quickly. With that in mind, mental toughness is at the top of the list of attributes that you are looking for in your golfer this week. Day is as tough as they come and his game is where it needs to be as well.