This article is part of our Weekly PGA Preview series.
A couple weeks ago, I opined on the difficulty of winning for the first time on the PGA Tour. Also mentioned in that piece was the problem that winning just once on Tour can bring sometimes. Look no further than Kevin Na to see what compounding pressure can do to a golfer. It took Na eight full PGA seasons to break through for his first win, but that win, in 2011, came as no surprise as Na had posted three runner-ups and four 3rd-place finishes prior to that -- it was only a matter of time before he claimed victory. The flood gates however, did not open after that win. In fact, it would be seven more seasons before Na last week picked up his second win, but it's not as if he was fighting himself the entire time. Na played extremely well in the years between his first and second wins on the PGA Tour, racking up 36 top-10s and three 3rd-place finishes. The interesting part is that he also carded six runner-ups. Six, with no wins during that span. It would be understandable if Na began to doubt his ability to win at some point and, who knows, maybe he did; but either way, it doesn't matter now -- he's back in the winner's circle. Kevin Na is 34 years old, he's 18th on the FedEx Cup points list, and he's ranked 41st in the world. It shouldn't take Na another seven years to win again on the
A couple weeks ago, I opined on the difficulty of winning for the first time on the PGA Tour. Also mentioned in that piece was the problem that winning just once on Tour can bring sometimes. Look no further than Kevin Na to see what compounding pressure can do to a golfer. It took Na eight full PGA seasons to break through for his first win, but that win, in 2011, came as no surprise as Na had posted three runner-ups and four 3rd-place finishes prior to that -- it was only a matter of time before he claimed victory. The flood gates however, did not open after that win. In fact, it would be seven more seasons before Na last week picked up his second win, but it's not as if he was fighting himself the entire time. Na played extremely well in the years between his first and second wins on the PGA Tour, racking up 36 top-10s and three 3rd-place finishes. The interesting part is that he also carded six runner-ups. Six, with no wins during that span. It would be understandable if Na began to doubt his ability to win at some point and, who knows, maybe he did; but either way, it doesn't matter now -- he's back in the winner's circle. Kevin Na is 34 years old, he's 18th on the FedEx Cup points list, and he's ranked 41st in the world. It shouldn't take Na another seven years to win again on the PGA Tour – though those same words were likely written in 2011.
This week: The John Deere Classic - The TPC Deere Run - Silvis, IL
Last Year: Bryson DeChambeau shot a final round 65 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Patrick Rodgers.
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER
Zach Johnson
It's tough to get away from Johnson at this event. He has only one win in 16 starts here, but he has finished in the top three six times. That number is even more impressive when you consider those six top-3s all came in the past nine years. Johnson struggled to a T34 last year, but his game as a whole was in bad shape at the time. That's not the case this time around, so he's a full go this week.
Steve Stricker
There was a time when Stricker was unbeatable at this event: from 2009 through 2011, Stricker was its only champion. In the years following, Stricker failed to pick up another win, but he has posted four top-20s in six starts. Stricker enters in good form as well, posting top-20s in his two most recent starts on the PGA Tour.
Bryson DeChambeau
DeChambeau is the defending champion this week, as he picked up his first PGA Tour win at this event last season. It's safe to say that DeChambeau is a better player now than he was 12 months ago, so there's really nothing to dislike about his chances. Well, there is the compass ordeal – more here from Golf Digest -- but I'm sure he can get past that. Johnson will be such a popular pick this week that you can actually find a lot of value in taking DeChambeau in a one-and-done format.
Joaquin Niemann
Niemann has hit the ground running in his brief time on the PGA Tour, and considering the thin field again this week, he should again be in the mix. With Johnson, Stricker and DeChambeau taking most of the ownership this week in one-and-done pools, Niemann is a great sleeper option…who's not actually a sleeper, if that makes sense.
Kelly Kraft
Kraft is nowhere near the most reliable guy on Tour, but he has shown some nice upside the past few years. In fact, he flashed some of that upside last week when he finished runner-up to Kevin Na. To no surprise, he's been hit or miss at this event as well, with a T64 and a T5 in two starts.
PLAYERS TO AVOID
Fabian Gomez
Gomez has made 10 of his past 12 cuts on the PGA Tour, including his past six, but he has really struggled at this event. Gomez has three starts here and he's never played the weekend. If that weren't enough, Gomez has only two top-25s all season, so the upside is limited.
D.A. Points
Points is such a bad pick this week that the only thing he has going for him is the law of averages, but even the law of averages is up against it this week. Points has made just one cut in 12 tries at this event and he enters on a streak of 14 consecutive missed cuts on the PGA Tour. It's almost too bad to be true.
Daniel Summerhays
Summerhays will test the course history vs. current form conundrum this week as he has played well here in the past, but his current form is terrible. Normally, I would side with course history, but Summerhays has been off of his game for months now. Summerhays enters on a streak of five consecutive missed cuts on the PGA Tour and he hasn't cracked the top 50 in a non-team event this season.
Sung Kang
This will be Kang's first start since being called out for cheating at the Quicken Loans National. It will be interesting to see how he responds with the added attention. Beyond the distraction, Kang wasn't exactly lighting it up prior to his top-3 at the National. Kang's 3rd-place finish was just his second top-20 this calendar year.
Hudson Swafford
Swafford just can't get it going this season, and although this looks like the perfect spot to find some momentum, his track record here would indicate that he won't find any traction. Swafford has made the cut in two of his three starts at this event, but he's failed to crack the top-30 in any of his three starts here.
ONE AND DONE GOLFER
Last week: Tony Finau (T21) - $75,920; Season - $7,153,455
This week: Zach Johnson - This pick was not as easy as it might seem, but in the end, Johnson is the safest pick, and he has as much upside as anyone else in the field. Johnson is the best front-running pick, but if you are in a position where you need to catch up, Niemann is probably the best bet, as DeChambeau will be popular as well.
PGATOUR.COM PICKS
Starters: Zach Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Steve Stricker, Joaquin Niemann
Bench: Francesco Molinari, Kelly Kraft
SURVIVOR PICK
Last week: David Lingmerth - (T11); Streak - 2
This week: Zach Johnson - There are several quality options this week, but there's no scenario outside of an injury where Johnson misses the cut. I held back on Finau last week because he will be appealing at later points, but I can't foresee a spot down the road where Johnson would have more value in this format than he does this week.
