This article is part of our Weekly PGA Recap series.
The U.S. Open just got a whole lot more interesting.
It's hard to ratchet up the excitement for a major tournament more than the usual anticipation, but when one of the best golfers in the sport finds his A game the week before, that'll do it.
Dustin Johnson reclaimed the No. 1 ranking on the eve of the 118th U.S. Open by running away to win the FedEx St. Jude Classic by six strokes on Sunday, punctuated by a walk-off hole-out eagle.
Johnson thus takes back the top position in the OWGR that he held for more than a year until being overtaken by Justin Thomas after the The Players Championship last month.
And his timing could not have been better.
As we've been saying for weeks now, it's not that Johnson had been playing poorly – he had finished top-20 in every stroke-play event this season – it's that he had not been contending for titles for the past four months.
So the good news for Johnson is he has now won for the first time since the Tournament of Champions back in January, and he did so with a 19-under score at least six strokes better than any other St. Jude winner this decade. The bad news is, no one has ever gone back-to-back to win the U.S. Open. Arnold Palmer came closest, tying for second at the Open in 1963 a week after winning a tournament. A decade later, Tom Weiskopf finished third and Sergio Garcia tied
The U.S. Open just got a whole lot more interesting.
It's hard to ratchet up the excitement for a major tournament more than the usual anticipation, but when one of the best golfers in the sport finds his A game the week before, that'll do it.
Dustin Johnson reclaimed the No. 1 ranking on the eve of the 118th U.S. Open by running away to win the FedEx St. Jude Classic by six strokes on Sunday, punctuated by a walk-off hole-out eagle.
Johnson thus takes back the top position in the OWGR that he held for more than a year until being overtaken by Justin Thomas after the The Players Championship last month.
And his timing could not have been better.
As we've been saying for weeks now, it's not that Johnson had been playing poorly – he had finished top-20 in every stroke-play event this season – it's that he had not been contending for titles for the past four months.
So the good news for Johnson is he has now won for the first time since the Tournament of Champions back in January, and he did so with a 19-under score at least six strokes better than any other St. Jude winner this decade. The bad news is, no one has ever gone back-to-back to win the U.S. Open. Arnold Palmer came closest, tying for second at the Open in 1963 a week after winning a tournament. A decade later, Tom Weiskopf finished third and Sergio Garcia tied for third in 2005.
There are very few golfers capable of going on a winning streak – heck, it's hard enough to win one in a row on the PGA Tour – but Johnson surely is one of them. It was just last year that he won three in succession in advance of the Masters, two of them WGCs. We'll never know whether Johnson could've made it a four-bagger, as he famously fell down some stairs on the eve of Augusta and had to withdraw.
Which brings us to Shinnecock Hills on Long Island, where the Open was lasted contended in 2004. Twenty golfers are back 14 years later and, while Johnson is not one of them, he is the favorite at 9-1, and he was so even before winning in Memphis.
Johnson is one of the longest hitters on Tour, and the upcoming track is very long, more than 7,400 yards for a par-70. Even though the fairways are wider than what we've come to expect from U.S. Opens, the thinking is that there are not a lot of guys who can win this coming week. It's simply too long for most pros to contend.
So, with apologies to runner-up Andrew Putnam (and others) after his career-best showing at the St. Jude, instead of looking back at the weekend action, we'll assess the Open chances of some of the biggest names in golf.
MONDAY BACKSPIN
Justin Thomas
Frankly, Johnson had lost the No. 1 ranking more than Thomas seized it. Thomas tied for 11th at The Players before taking over the top spot, then tied for eighth at the Memorial in his most recent start. Since winning the Honda in late February and finishing second the following week at the WGC-Mexico, Thomas has not contended. But of course we cannot dismiss him at Shinnecock. He is one of the eight or 10 golfers with a true shot to win the Open, in large part because of his length off the tee. Thomas is eighth in driving distance. He's probably not among the top two or three favorites, but that's far from enough to eliminate him from the conversation.
Justin Rose
Rose is 40th in driving distance, yet that still comes out to an average of more than 300 yards. The world's No. 3-ranked golfer is solid in almost every other area, not to mention a former Open champion. Rose has won four times worldwide since October, including just last month at Colonial. But he also hasn't returned to the top-10 at the Open since winning at Merion at 2013, as the USGA makes the tracks longer and longer.
Jordan Spieth
Spieth is the biggest wild card, as usual. He's one of the shortest hitter among the world's elite, but he is so deft at every other facet of the game that he can't be discounted. The reason he can be discounted is because his putting has been atrocious. And every time we think Spieth will finally find his form on the greens – Augusta, tournaments in his native Texas – he doesn't. But he did finish solo third at the Masters, which should give him hope this week.
Jon Rahm
We have to remember that the No. 5-ranked golfer is still only 23. But until his solo fourth at the Masters in April, Rahm hadn't had even so much as a top-25 in his five previous majors as a professional. He's cracked that barrier now. Perhaps Rahm's biggest weakness is his temperament, and that's a serious concern in a major. He kept things under control at Augusta, so the long-hitting Rahm (19th in driving distance) has to be on just about everybody's short list.
Rory McIlroy
When golf fans like to play the what-if game, McIlroy may be at the top when we wonder: What if every golfer played at very top of his game – who would be the best? But the No. 6-ranked Northern Irishman has not won a major in 12 tries since capturing the 2014 PGA Championship, and often has come up short in heartbreaking fashion, most recently at the Masters two months ago. In those 12 majors, McIlroy has seven top-10s and nine top-25s. But he's missed the cut in the past two U.S. Opens. So why can't we quit Rory?
Rickie Fowler
Fowler is the shortest off the tee of anyone we chronicle here, but as with Spieth, there are reasons why he's ranked in the top-10 in the world. Fowler is perhaps the preeminent scrambler in the game, and that will be important with all the run-offs that we're hearing about on and around the greens of Shinnecock. Fowler was runner-up at the Masters and T5 a year ago at the Open. His game was way off before Augusta, but he's found it in time to be in this week's conversation.
Jason Day
The world's No. 7 is very long off the tee, fourth on Tour in scrambling and first in putting. But Day's iron game has been a mess, and that's a concern for Shinnecock, even though he won again just last month at Quail Hollow, a very tough track. Day has two runners-up in the Open along with three other top-10s, so missing the cut last year – a down year for Day – is not a red flag. Day may have a hard time winning this week, but he tends to be in the mix in big events.
Brooks Koepka
The defending champion surely thrived at Erin Hills, another long course with wider-than-usual fairways for U.S. Opens. But play around and on the greens needs to be much more precise at Shinnecock Hills. There hasn't been a repeat Open champion since Curtis Strange in the late '80s. Koepka is one of the few golfers top golfers who played last week. And for the most part he did not look good following some strong weeks, especially on Sunday.
Hideki Matsuyama
Rounding out the top-10 in the OWGR, Matsuyama is a golfer close to falling out of the elite group. He was hurt for part of the season, and just now seems – seems – to be finding his game with three recent top-20s, including the Masters. Matsuyama finished runner-up to Koepka last year. His scrambling game is better than most people think.
Patrick Reed
Reed hasn't had a top-10 in four previous U.S. Opens. Then again, he'd never had a top-20 at the Masters until winning it in April. One of the weakest aspects of Reed's game is accuracy off the tee, which may not hurt him this week – unless he's really wayward. He's a great scrambler and it's impossible to dismiss his tenacity and competitiveness, but we're pretty sure the bid for a calendar-year grand slam will be over by Sunday evening.
Phil Mickelson
Mickelson is back after skipping the tournament last year for his daughter's high school graduation. We all know he's had six runners-up and this is the only major he hasn't won. But his last three Opens were T28-T64-MC. The courses may be getting too long for Mickelson, who nonetheless has the wedge game to overcome any distance issues.
Bryson DeChambeau
One of these things is not like the other, and it's DeChambeau. He's not top-10, he hasn't won a major. But he's been the hottest golfer on Tour going back four months, and earned his second career title just two weeks ago at the Memorial. Sometimes it's hard to envision a guy winning his first major until he actually does it. But it sure seems DeChambeau will get there sooner than later.
Adam Scott
Scott is No. 67 in the world and had to qualify last week to keep his majors streak alive at 68 straight. We don't believe he can win, but we'll throw out some interesting factoids. Scott has played Shinnecock from time to time, and even shot a then-course-record 63 during a casual round back in 2013. He's also parted ways with his regular caddie and instead will go with a longtime Shinnecock looper. For courses that are played maybe once every 10 to 15 years or more, it almost makes you wonder why picking caddies with all that local knowledge it isn't done more. It could be a brilliant move by Scott.
Tiger Woods
Last but not least … Woods heads to the Open certainly long enough to win, and with the fairways generous enough to help him avoid disaster – within reason. His iron game is great, his scrambling game is great. Woods surely could win this week. If-if-if his putter cooperates.