This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
WM Phoenix Open
Course: TPC Scottsdale Stadium Course (7,261 yards, par 71)
Purse: $8,200,000
Winner: $1,476,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
Stadium golf is back. After a year of COVID-19 restrictions on the event, the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale will be at full capacity for the 2022 WM Phoenix Open. This is annually the most attended golf event of the year highlighted by the rowdy atmosphere around the enclosed par-3 16th hole. This will be the 35th playing of the WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale on what has been nicknamed "The Greatest Show on Grass." Watching the dramatic back-nine holes at an event that always comes down to the wire is the perfect way to pregame for Sunday night's Super Bowl between the Rams and Bengals.
The 2022 edition of the WM Phoenix Open features one of the best fields in the event's history. A whopping 15 of the top 20 players in the world will tee it up in Scottsdale. World No. 1 Jon Rahm leads the brigade looking for an elusive win in the desert after attending nearby Arizona State in his days as a collegiate superstar. Now World No. 3 Viktor Hovland will be back on U.S. soil following his win at the Dubai Desert Classic. Defending FedExCup champion Patrick Cantlay will be making his first appearance at the WM Phoenix Open this week. Brooks Koepka is the defending champion of this event with TPC Scottsdale being the site of his first and most recent PGA Tour win. Hideki Matsuyama will also be looking for his third win at the WM Phoenix Open, as well as his third win on the season. Jordan Spieth is back in Scottsdale after a second place finish at Pebble Beach. The Texan offered one of the most memorable rounds of 2021 with his 10-under 61 in round three of the Phoenix Open, which was just one shy of the course record of 60 held by Grant Waite, Mark Calcavecchia, and Phil Mickelson (twice).
Most people think of TPC Scottsdale as a birdie fest, but Phil Mickelson's tournament record-tying score of 28-under-par is actually the only instance in the last 14 years in which the winning score has broken the 20-under-par barrier. This event has seen its fair share of dramatic finishes with playoffs in four of the last six events. The tournament has been decided by more than one stroke just twice in the last 15 years as well. We've been blessed yet again in 2022 with some great weather at a PGA Tour stop. The early morning starters may be a bit chilly, but by afternoon we should see temperatures top out at the 80 degree mark in all four rounds. Winds should be light through the first two days, but may pick up a bit over the weekend, although it isn't expected to affect scoring too much.
Recent Champions
2021 – Brooks Koepka (-19)
2020 – Webb Simpson (-17)
2019 – Rickie Fowler (-17)
2018 – Gary Woodland (-18)
2017 – Hideki Matsuyama (-17)
2016 – Hideki Matsuyama (-14)
2015 – Brooks Koepka (-15)
2014 – Kevin Stadler (-16)
2013 – Phil Mickelson (-28)
2012 – Kyle Stanley (-15)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
TPC Scottsdale has grown the rough up in recent years to try to protect some of the scoring in the bomb-and-gauge era in golf. It has developed into a much more difficult driving course with other recent adjustments to bunkers as well. TPC Scottsdale should be relatively firm as well, which may further limit fairways in regulation as well as making ball-striking even more important. The guys that have played well at TPC Scottsdale in recent years like Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, and Jon Rahm are all very elite iron players. Being able to control distances coming into greens that feature more undulation that most people realize will most likely tell the story on who is hoisting the trophy come Sunday afternoon. The putting surfaces are all overseeded bermuda which is expected to run at about 12 on the Stimpmeter. Holing some putts of length will obviously help, but based on the final leaderboards over the past handful of years, ball-striking should tell the story.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Hideki Matsuyama ($11,500)
Matsuyama comes in at a great price this week even in a field this good. Plain and simply, nobody has been better at TPC Scottsdale since 2014. He has two wins and six top-20 finishes in eight starts with a career scoring average of 67.97. Matsuyama has led all players here in SG: Approach and SG: Total since his WM Phoenix Open debut.
Xander Schauffele ($11,400)
Schauffele has been in great position going into the final round each of the last two years at the WM Phoenix Open, but has been unable to get into the winners circle. Last year he was a co-runner-up and has not finished worse than T17 in his four trips to TPC Scottsdale where he sports a 67.94 scoring average. The now World No. 8 has not missed a cut since last year's PGA Championship and is coming off a T18 last week in Saudi Arabia.
Webb Simpson ($10,700)
Simpson is another guy that has a fantastic record at TPC Scottsdale. The 2020 WM Phoenix Open champion has scored a total of seven top-20 finishes over his last nine starts here. Simpson is rested having not played since the Sony Open. The Wake Forest product has great distance control and is terrific on and around the greens.
Bubba Watson ($10,200)
Watson is coming off a runner-up finish at the Saudi International last week, which was his first start anywhere since the first leg of the playoffs last season. The 43-year-old has seen his skills decline over the last handful of seasons, but that has never affected his performance at TPC Scottsdale where he has gone T4-T3-T22 the last three years. This has always been one of Watson's favorite stops going 13-for-15 with eight top-15 finishes.
Longer Shots with Value
Russell Henley ($9,900)
With the importance on ball-striking at TPC Scottsdale, it's surprising that this is just Henley's second start at the Phoenix Open since 2015. Henley ranks second so far this season in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in driving accuracy, 12th in GIR percentage, and 18th in proximity to the hole. Henley is also second on Tour in scoring average and is coming off a runner-up at Waialae and a T14 at The AmEx.
Luke List ($9,600)
List has now had a week to process his first career win at age 37. It's already been a great season for him with six top-25s in nine starts. Ball-striking should tell the story at TPC Scottsdale and List ranks sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 15th in SG: Approach, and second in SG: Tee-to-Green. List is also quietly 15th in SG: Around-the-Green. He has finished top-30 in three of the last four years at the WM Phoenix Open.
Mito Pereira ($8,900)
Pereira will be making his first start at TPC Scottsdale, but he may be tough to pass up at this price. He is a great ball striker, ranking 10th in SG: Approach and 28th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. Pereira has finished outside the top 40 just twice in nine starts this season.
Denny McCarthy ($8,600)
McCarthy was knocking on the door of five figure salary at last week's AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. While this is a much better field, being able to round out a squad with a guy playing as well as McCarthy right now is certainly an interesting prospect. The 28-year-old has gone T6-T12 his last two starts and now has six top-20 finishes this season.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is a week where I think course history should play a huge factor. The guys that play well here come here every year and are able to put themselves on or near the first page of the leaderboard by week's end. As I mentioned throughout, value players who rank higher in SG: Approach versus some of the putting statistics. A few players to stay away from are Brooks Koepka ($11,200) who has shown no form of any kind this season and ranks 184th in GIR percentage, Daniel Berger ($11,100) who is dealing with a back injury and the possibility of withdraw is too high for the price to be worth it, and Tom Hoge ($9,700) who is coming off a win but has followed each of his previous top-5s this season with a missed cut in his next start. If you're looking for some cheap options, Doug Ghim ($8,000), Hudson Swafford ($8,000), Matthew NeSmith ($7,900), and Austin Eckroat ($7,400) are a few who stand out.
