This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
Valspar Championship
Course: The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (7,340 yards, par 71)
Purse: $7,800,000
Winner: $1,404,000 and 500 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
After an extremely long week at THE PLAYERS Championship that included nearly 5 inches of rain, multiple delays, near freezing temperatures, and 40+ mph gusts, those in the field for the Valspar Championship in Palm Harbor, Florida have a much more encouraging forecast for the tournament. A pop up shower can't be ruled out, but it appears it will be dry for the most part during the four tournament rounds. Temperatures should be in the high 70s with limited wind.
This event was founded in 2000 and originally known as the Tampa Bay Classic. It began slotted in the fall portion of the schedule, but was moved to March in 2007, which coincided with The Players Championship's move to May. When the Players moved back to March in 2019, the Valspar remained the week following the PGA Tour's flagship event. The 2020 Valspar Championship unfortunately had to be cancelled due to COVID-19, but it returned in 2021 in early May which was the site of Sam Burns' first PGA Tour win. This year it is back as the final event of the four-week Florida Swing.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook has really become a favorite amongst the players. It features a lot of elevation changes for a Florida course. Prior to Burns' win last year, we had a streak of six straight tournaments here decided by one stroke or fewer. Vijay Singh's 18-under-par winning score back in 2004 remains the tournament record.
Overall, five of the top-10 players in the OWGR are slated to tee it up this week. They are led by Collin Morikawa, who is making his tournament debut, and Viktor Hovland who scored a T3 last year at Innisbrook. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Jason Day are some of the other notables in the field. They will all be looking to stop Sam Burns from defending his title.
Recent Champions
2021 – Sam Burns (-17)
2020 – None
2019 – Paul Casey (-9)
2018 – Paul Casey (-10)
2017 – Adam Hadwin (-14)
2016 – Charl Schwartzel (-7)
2015 – Jordan Spieth (-10)
2014 – John Senden (-7)
2013 – Kevin Streelman (-10)
2012 – Luke Donald (-13)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- Driving Accuracy
- Scrambling
Champion's Profile
In a lot of ways, the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is the most unique on the Florida Swing. The first three courses feature crazy amounts of water and are extremely flat. What sets the Copperhead Course apart is its mostly tree-lined fairways and noticeable amount of elevation changes for a course in this area. It has developed into a ball-strikers paradise. The fairways are narrow and are guarded with rough that will be allowed to grow to 3.5 inches, which is up from last year's edition in early May. Accuracy is much more important that shear length here. From there players will look to attack the smallest greens on the Florida Swing. Iron play and distance control will need to be dialed in. This par-71 features four par-5's and five par-3's, which will only help those players that ranks highly in approach stats. The quartet of long holes are one of the most difficult sets on the PGA Tour, although Sam Burns averaged 4.06 strokes on them for the week to lead the field when he won last year. The small greens at Innisbrook has a tendency to cover up some weaknesses with the flat stick, but also require that your chipping and pitching be dialed in. With all the rain that has come through Florida over the last week, the course should play a bit softer than it normally would this time of year, which could create better overall scoring.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Collin Morikawa ($12,000)
Morikawa is making his debut at Innisbrook, but he should make this a regular stop because his game matches up perfectly for what this course asks of a player. Morikawa is extremely accurate off the tee and has been the best iron player in the world ever since he turned pro. The one weakness with Morikawa was the putter, but in 2022 he has been great on the greens and ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Viktor Hovland ($11,900)
Plain and simply, nobody is playing better golf right now than Hovland. He is at the point now where it would be hard for him to miss a fairway or green if he tried. The Norwegian now ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, third in SG: Approach, first in total driving, and sixth in GIR percentage. Hovland is also second in birdie average and fifth in par-5 scoring average. He continues to close in on the No. 1 spot in the OWGR with three wins and seven top-10s in his last nine starts worldwide.
Louis Oosthuizen ($11,400)
The South African has Innisbrook figured out now, going T7-T16-T2-T8 in his last four tries. Oosthuizen ranks 14th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in driving accuracy, and 27th in GIR percentage. He is also 28th in SG: Around-the-Green and 21st in sand saves. Oosthuizen was poised for a much better finish at Sawgrass before a tough final round, but a quick start to the Valspar should get him right back in gear.
Jason Kokrak ($10,600)
The Copperhead Course is probably Kokrak's best venue on the PGA Tour. In his last seven starts here, he notched five top-15 finishes, including a runner-up in 2019. Kokrak has not missed a cut since his first appearance of the season at the Shriners event. The 36-year-old has always been one of the best drivers on Tour, but his emergence over the last year or so has to do with his remarkable turnaround on the greens, where he is consistently gaining over half a shot to the field per round.
Longer Shots with Value
Russell Knox ($9,800)
Knox is coming off a huge payday at THE PLAYERS, where he tied for sixth place. The master ball-striker ranks eighth in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 10th in driving accuracy, second in GIR percentage, and ninth in proximity to the hole this season. With those numbers it is no surprise that Knox has finished top-25 in each of the last three editions of the Valspar Championship.
Cameron Tringale ($9,700)
Tringale has been on a rollercoaster ride this season, posting a good result one week then following it up with a missed cut the next. He owns five top-15 finishes this season, but also five missed cuts. After two straight missed cuts, Tringale comes to one of his better courses where he finished T3 last year and owns three other top-25 results.
Adam Hadwin ($9,400)
Hadwin comes to the site of his only PGA Tour win back in 2017 off a low-stress backdoor top-10 at TPC Sawgrass. The Canadian has finished top-26 in four of his six starts in 2022 thus far. Hadwin has been solid across the board this season, ranking 30th in SG: Approach, 38th in SG: Putting, 25th in driving accuracy, 19th in GIR percentage, 12th in proximity to the hole, and 16th in scrambling.
Mito Pereira ($8,900)
Pereira seems like a player due to break out soon. In less than a year's worth of time on the PGA Tour, the Chilean has flashed plenty of potential. He has totaled eight top-31 finishes in 13 starts this season. Pereira is a strong iron player, ranking top-20 on Tour in both SG: Approach and GIR percentage this season. Pereira is also top-25 in SG: Tee-to-Green and scrambling.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
Unlike the last two weeks at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship, the field at this week's Valspar Championship feels very top heavy. The five priciest players are, according to the OWGR, the top five slated to tee it up this week. Behind them you have a number of players that have played well recently or have shown good course history at Innisbrook. After you get below $9,500 it feels like the options take a nosedive. That may require DFS players to be a little more selective with their picks on the top end of things. Some cheap options to potentially target to try to save some money this week include Hayden Buckley ($8,100), Matthew NeSmith ($8,000), and Sean O'Hair ($7,800). If there was ever a week to not let a missed cut in the previous event affect your decision this is certainly it. Most of the MC's last week were simply due to a terrible split on draws thanks to all the weather delays at Sawgrass.
