This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
PGA Championship
Course: Kiawah Island Ocean Course (7,876 yards, par 72)
Purse: $11,000,000
Winner: $1,980,000 and 600 FedExCup points
Tournament Preview
There's no question that the two biggest storylines coming into the 103rd PGA Championship involve Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy. No player has gained more OWGR points in 2021 than Spieth, who returned to the winner's circle for the first time since 2017 a few starts ago at the Valero Texas Open and notched his seventh top-10 of the year last week at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The PGA Championship is the only one of golf's four majors that Spieth needs to become the sixth player in history to complete the Career Grand Slam. McIlroy, on the other hand, is coming off a win in his last start at the Wells Fargo Championship and he is returning to the site of his eight-shot laping of the field at Kiawah Island back in 2012. The Northern Irishman will be looking to become the sixth man to win the PGA Championship at least three times.
There are plenty of other intriguing storylines as well. Collin Morikawa will be looking to defend his title from 2020 at TPC Harding Park, and Hideki Matsuyama will be hoping to follow up his massive win at Augusta a little over a month ago. South Carolina native and World No. 1 Dustin Johnson will be looking for his third major title -- but first Wanamaker Trophy -- after finishing runner-up in this event the last two years. You have many other top-ranked players who are also looking to make that next step and win their second major this week like Justin Thomas, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Reed, and Webb Simpson. Then there are a handful of other highly-ranked players who will be looking to taste major glory for the first time like Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, and Tony Finau.
Kiawah Island is one of the most scenic venues in PGA Championship history. Located right on the South Carolina coast, it is extremely open to the elements. The Pete Dye design has a links style feel, and at nearly 7,900 yards it will be the longest course in major championship history. Golf Digest recently ranked the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island the most difficult course in the country. The weather this week could not better, with no rain expected in the forecast and consistent breezes around 15 miles per hour each tournament round. That should make for a very stern test and it would not be surprising to see this PGA Championship play as the most difficult in recent memory.
Recent Champions
2020 - Collin Morikawa (-13) TPC Harding Park
2019 – Brooks Koepka (-8) Bethpage Black
2018 – Brooks Koepka (-16) Bellerive Country Club
2017 – Justin Thomas (-8) Quail Hollow Club
2016 – Jimmy Walker (-14) Baltusrol Golf Club
2015 – Jason Day (-20) Whistling Straits
2014 – Rory McIlroy (-16) Valhalla Golf Club
2013 – Jason Dufner (-10) Oak Hill Country Club
2012 – Rory McIlroy (-13) Kiawah Island
2011 – Keegan Bradley (-8) Atlanta Athletic Club
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Around-the-Green
- Total Driving
Champion's Profile
The wind will be a big topic of discussion this week. Being on the ocean and with how exposed the entire course is, the wind needs to be factored in on every single stroke. Further more, this course is designed similar to a links course where holes 1-4 and 14-18 will play in one direction, while holes 5-13 will play in the opposite direction. The early projections are that the winds should be mostly out of the east, which means we may see the early and last part of the course play more difficult that some of the holes in the middle that are going downwind. Kiawah Island is primarily a second shot golf course. The fairways are very wide, but missing them will lead to a huge penalty. The rough is not ideal by any means, but it is much preferred over some deep fairway bunkers and hazards that come into play on every hole. You can make a big number pretty fast on this course if you are not in control of your driver. If you are able to find the short grass, you will need to be able to control your distances in the wind to give yourself a reasonable look for birdie. The greens aren't as brutal as far as undulation and crazy breaks as some other Pete Dye designed courses. The biggest challenge is that many of these greens are raised and missing one of them just barely could lead to a very difficult up and down. If the wind does pick up, this could turn into a scrambling competition. You could face just about every possible shot you could think of around the green within just one round at Kiawah Island. With no rain the forecast for the entire week, the greens and fairways should continue to firm up and lower FIR and GIR numbers.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Justin Thomas ($11,900)
There really isn't a course that doesn't set up well for Thomas, but Kiawah seems about as good as you can get. There is plenty of room for him to work it off the tee and he is one of if not the best iron player in the game, ranking second in SG: Approach. Where he has really improved recently is his short game, as Thomas is 10th in SG: Around-the-Green. If it plays firm and fast that should give him a huge advantage considering his ball-striking prowess and his touch around the greens.
Jon Rahm ($11,800)
Rahm is one of the best when it gets firm and fast as well. It all starts for him off the tee, as he ranks second on Tour in Total Driving and third in SG: Off-the-Tee. On top of that, Rahm is fourth in GIR percentage when means he tops the ball-striking stat this season. The Spaniard's only weakness this season has been putting, but everyone should struggle this week on unfamiliar greens in windy conditions. Rahm is 14-for-15 this season with nine top-10's and 12 top-25's. Just imagine where he'd be if his putter would have been hot.
Jordan Spieth ($11,400)
The undisputed best player since the calendar turned to 2021, Spieth has gained 2.23 strokes per round since Jan. 1. It brought his season-long ranking in SG: Approach and SG: Around-the-Green to inside the top-20 on Tour after a dismal fall portion of the schedule. His exceptional iron play and short game will be a huge factor if he is able to pull off the career grand slam at Kiawah. The putter is actually the only thing that has been holding him back of late oddly enough, but as we know his trusty Scotty Cameron is only going to stay cool for so long before he starts making them in bunches.
Xander Schauffele ($11,300)
The bigger the stage and the tougher the test is what brings out the best in Schauffele. In just 15 career major championship starts, he has been top-10 in eight of them. The 27-year-old has been the total package this season, ranking 44th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 27th in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Around-the-Green, and eighth in SG: Putting. Schauffele is also 19th in GIR percentage, fifth in birdie average, and first in sand save percentage.
Longer Shots with Value
Cameron Smith ($9,900)
Even in this strong of a field, this price still jumps out. Smith has been so good as of late with finishes of T17-or-better in each of his last six stroke play events, including a win at the Zurich Classic the last time he teed it up. The Aussie's short game is why I think he will be very competitive at Kiawah. Smith ranks top-26 on Tour this season in SG: Around-the-Green, SG: Putting, scrambling, sand save percentage, one-putt percentage, and three-putt avoidance.
Sam Burns ($9,400)
I'm not sure how you don't jump on this. Experience on this course is very limited and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone playing better the last month than Burns. The 24-year-old is coming into the second major of the season with finishes of T4-1st-2nd over his last three starts. Burns has the power to reach all the par-5's regardless of wind direction and ranks 14th in SG: Approach, 22nd in GIR percentage, 26th in SG: Putting, and sixth in birdie average this season.
Corey Conners ($9,300)
The Canadian is having a career year with seven top-10's and 13 top-25's in 20 starts this season. A firm and fast Kiawah will put extra emphasis on ball-striking, and just about nobody is better in that department than Conners. He ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee, sixth in SG: Approach, ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 12th in driving accuracy, and ninth in GIR percentage.
Charley Hoffman ($8,600)
Hoffman has found his game again at age 44 and become a consistent threat. He has made the cut in his last nine starts and has seven top-20's in that stretch. Hoffman has always been a great ball striker, and that is no different in 2021 as he ranks 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee, 12th in SG: Approach, 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 36th in GIR percentage, and 23rd in proximity to the hole. The difference this season is that Hoffman has stepped it up in other areas as well, like ranking 10th in scrambling and 50th in SG: Putting.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
This is typically the second-best field of the year just behind the PLAYERS Championship. Because of that obviously you're going to have some salaries that don't quite match up with where you'd normally expect them to be. That extreme depth gives you the ability to be more aggressive at the top and take on two players over $11,000, as I truly believe with the given conditions that's where your winner will come from. With the balls expected to be rolling out, it should give everyone a fair shot despite the massive length on the card. This should definitely be a second shot golf course with some added emphasis on scrambling. Ranking high in those departments should be what you are targeting. Some other bargain players to consider this week would be Emiliano Grillo ($8,500), Chris Kirk ($8,400), Charl Schwartzel ($8,300), and Stewart Cink ($8,100).
