This article is part of our FanDuel PGA DFS Picks series.
The Open Championship
Course: Royal Liverpool (7,383 yards, par 71)
Purse: $16,500,000
Winner: $3,000,000 and 600 FedExCup
Tournament Preview
The last major of the year takes us back to Hoylake, England and historic Royal Liverpool for the 13th time. It has hosted the fifth-most Open Championships behind St Andrews (30), Prestwick (24), Muirfield (16), and Royal St George's (15). There was a 39-year gap between the 10th edition and 11th edition where Tiger Woods famously won his third Open Championship in 2006 when he hit just one driver all week. Rory McIlroy led wire-to-wire en route to his win at Hoylake back in 2014, which was his third of four majors he has sat on for nine years now. The Northern Irishman does come into the week with all kinds of momentum after going birdie-birdie to win the Genesis Scottish Open by one stroke over Robert MacIntrye.
Royal Liverpool has made some changes since players went took it pretty low on the course nine years ago. There has been length added as expected along with some tweaking to the fairways bunkering positions to challenge the longest drivers off the tee. Hole No. 10 used to be a very easy par-5 and now will play as a long par-4 for the 151st Open Championship. The 17th hole is also completely new and is now a short par-3 with lots of danger that could play a major factor down the stretch of this championship. As always, The Open is dependent on the weather. Early forecasts suggest a relatively mild weather week for Open standard's, but that can always change in an instant around these parts. Royal Liverpool is one of the flattest and most exposed courses on the Open rota, so players will feel the full brunt of whatever wind there is at that time.
With the PGA Championship moving to May, the Open Championship is now the last true shot at glory for the year. So many careers can be changed with a victory and even individual seasons can go down in the record books if players like Jon Rahm (Masters), Brooks Koepka (PGA Championship), or Wyndham Clark (U.S. Open) were able to add a second major on the year. What about World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler who is on a streak of 18 straight top-12 finishes, but hasn't tasted victory since The Players Championship in March despite some truly historic ball-striking since then. Cameron Smith can become the first player since Padraig Harrington in 2007-08 to win the Open in back-to-back years. Then you have a list of players like Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood, and Tyrrell Hatton who has played great this season, but are still looking to win that first major championship. Whatever the outcome might be, all signs are pointing toward a very entertaining tournament with really any type of player having a shot to do well at Royal Liverpool.
Recent Champions
2022 - Cameron Smith -20 (St Andrews)
2021 - Collin Morikawa -15 (Royal St George's)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Shane Lowry -15 (Royal Portrush)
2018 - Francesco Molinari -8 (Carnoustie)
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 (Royal Birkdale)
2016 - Henrik Stenson -20 (Royal Troon)
2015 - Zach Johnson -15 (St Andrews)
2014 - Rory McIlroy -17 (Royal Liverpool)
2013 - Phil Mickelson -3 (Muirfield)
Key Stats to Victory
- SG: Off-the-Tee
- SG: Approach
- GIR Percentage
- SG: Putting
Champion's Profile
Royal Liverpool is a much tighter course than players saw last year at St Andrews where it kind of became a driver and wedge show. There are a lot of doglegs with strategic pot bunkers as well as a few out of bounds lines that will hold players accountable for a poor shot. The bigger hitters really won't want to hit a lot of drivers around here, as playing out of the short grass is going to be everything in terms of trying to score. Players who excel with their mid-to-long irons are going to fancy their chances around Hoylake because we'll see a lot more of those clubs off tees and into greens than we would at any traditional PGA Tour course.
The greens are also going to be very slow for those used to playing in the U.S. at around 10 on the stimpmeter. In some cases the fescue fairways will roll even faster than the bentgrass greens, which gives players a lot of options from a short game perspective. Unless you hit your approach into a deep green-side bunker, most of the up-and-downs are going to be fairly straightforward. I think players who can struggle around-the-greens will be just fine given the lack of rollout on these slow and flat putting surfaces. In the last two Open's at Hoylake the winners have eaten up the par-5s, but with one being removed and some added length to the other three for the 2023 edition, we might not see scores be quite as low given the challenging set of par-3s and a handful of penal par-4s.
FanDuel Value Picks
The Chalk
Viktor Hovland ($11,600)
Hovland is trending the most of any player who has not yet won a major championship. He put himself in the final group at St Andrews a year ago at the Open, and while he didn't get it done it kicked off his stretch of T4-T7-T2-19th in his last four major starts. Hovland is also coming off a big win at the Memorial last month and is putting on another ball-striking clinic this season. He ranks seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in total driving, eighth in proximity and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Hovland has also made massive strides in the short game department, as evidenced by ranking 30th in scrambling.
Xander Schauffele ($11,300)
Similar to Hovland, one of these times it is going to go right for Schauffele in a major. In 25 career major starts he has finished T26 or better a staggering 19 times. That also includes four of his five starts at the Open, highlighted by a T2 back in 2018. Schauffele has one of the most complete games in golf and ranks fourth in SG: Approach, 19th in GIR percentage, 11th in SG: Tee-to-Green, seventh in SG: Putting and fifth in par-4 scoring. He hasn't missed a cut since the 2022 Masters.
Rickie Fowler ($10,800)
Fowler is playing like a Top 10 golfer again and was finally able to get over the hump a couple weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage for his first win since 2019. He has racked up a whopping 15 top-20 finishes this season and is strong all the way through the bag. Fowler ranks top-15 in par-3, par-4, and par-5 scoring, as well as 21st in total driving, seventh in SG: Approach, 17th in SG: Around-the-Green and eighth in putts per GIR. Fowler is 10-for-11 at the Open, including a runner-up the last time it was hosted at Royal Liverpool in 2014.
Tommy Fleetwood ($10,700)
Fleetwood has been agonizingly close to that first PGA Tour win for several months now and has finished inside the top-six on six occasions this season. The Englishman has also finished T18-or-better in six of his last eight starts overall. It's really hard to find something off with his game as Fleetwood ranks 26th in SG: Approach, seventh in SG: Around, seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green and third in putts per hole this season. He has also has a runner-up finish at the Open in 2019 and a T4 last year at St Andrews.
Longer Shots with Value
Corey Conners ($9,500)
Conners has been playing great golf since his win at the Valero Texas Open in April. Over his last seven starts he has collected five top-20 finishes, including a week ago at the Scottish Open. Conners will excel at Hoylake given his tee-to-green precision as he ranks 18th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 11th in SG: Approach and fifth in GIR percentage. The Canadian is also putting better this season at 56th in putts per hole. Conners factored at the PGA earlier this season before fading to T12 and he has gone T15-T28 the last two years at the Open.
Wyndham Clark ($9,500)
Clark very well might be the trickiest player in the field to gauge due to his lack of links experience, but he is simply too low as the most recent major winner and now the No. 10 ranked player in the world. Clark is 20 for his last 21 in terms of made cuts, and has racked up five top-six finishes and ten top-20 finishes over that stretch. The 29-year-old's other victory this year was at a designated event, so clearly he is not afraid to go out and take it on the big stage. The metrics are all fantastic as well at top-40 in every strokes gained category.
Robert MacIntyre ($8,900)
It really looked like McIntyre was going to pull off one of the best stories of the year by winning his home Scottish Open last week after a brilliant 64 in the final round, but it just wasn't to be with Rory McIlroy besting him by one shot. With pricing coming out prior to the conclusion of the Scottish Open, DFS players will get a nice discount on McIntyre who is one of the best links players out there. The 26-year-old has played in just three Open's but has finished T6-T8-T34 in those starts. McIntyre is gaining strokes across in the board on the DP World Tour and is 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green.
Brian Harman ($8,000)
After a great fall, Harman struggled with some inconsistent play early in 2023. He has found his groove again, however, coming into the Open off finishes of T2-T9-T12. Harman fits that profile of players who are going to keep the ball in play off the tee then do their damage from there. The Georgia product ranks 14th in driving accuracy, 30th in GIR percentage, seventh in scrambling, 28th in putts per hole, and ninth in par-4 scoring this season. Harman has also finished T19 and T6 the last two years at the Open.
Strategy Tips This Week
Based on a Standard $60K Salary Cap
The Open has as much variability as any event we play all year. That is due to the potential weather impact and the fact that the tee time range is so wide with all 156 players going off the first tee. The forecast for the week continues to change and there doesn't seem to be a consensus on what side of the draw will have the advantage. That being said, that can change in an instant and if you're making multiple lineups I would definitely consider doing a full AM/PM stack or visa versa to try to get all your players in potentially the easier side of the conditions.
The FanDuel pricing is so bunched together that it gives DFS players the opportunity to create a lot of different lineup builds and feel confident getting the couple players you are really high on into multiple lineups. Of the top three golfers in the world, I'm most inclined to play Jon Rahm ($12,000) because I think his ownership will be much lower than Rory McIlroy ($12,200) or Scottie Scheffler ($12,100). There's a lot of other really strong value options not listed above that I'll be considering such as Denny McCarthy ($8,900), Byeong Hun An ($8,400), Lee Hodges ($7,900), Jordan Smith ($7,900), and Matthew Jordan ($7,600).
With so much potential for variability, we just want to first focus on trying to get our six players into the top-70 and ties to make the weekend. Given the layout of Royal Liverpool and the demand on driving the ball well and avoiding all the trouble, that is likely to be my first focus. From there you can get it around, but you can't score at Hoylake driving off line. Experience also makes a difference at the Open Championship, so don't be afraid to add a cagy veteran or two to the lineup. One of my favorites this week is 42-year-old Justin Rose ($10,000).
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