This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
WM PHOENIX OPEN
Purse: $8.2M
Winner's Share: $1.476M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Scottsdale, Ariz.
Course: TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Yardage: 7,261
Par: 71
2021 champion: Brooks Koepka
Tournament Preview
The wildest fans in all of golf will be back in full force this year for the Greatest Show on Grass and, with the strongest PGA Tour field of the season on hand, there is a very real potential for an electrifying Super Sunday at TPC Scottsdale.
Last year, COVID-19 protocols limited attendance to 5,000 total fans per day, which is far less than what we are used to seeing just at the raucous par-3 16th hole. Heck, three times that many fans traditionally fill the amphitheater-like setting, lathered and ready to go from dawn to dusk. In all, hundreds of thousands of fans normally infiltrate the Stadium Course across the weeklong event. This year, all systems are go once again, and the field is absolutely loaded.
No. 1-ranked Jon Rahm heads a 132-man contingent that includes three of the top-4 in the world, six of the top-10, 15 of the top-20 and more than half of the top-50. The former Arizona State star will be joined by surging world No. 3 Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, two-time champion Phoenix Hideki Matsuyama, Jordan Spieth and defending champion/2015 winner Brooks Koepka. This group helps form the second strongest Phoenix field as long as records have been kept, which is saying something for a tournament with such a rich history.
The WM Phoenix Open -- by the way, that's the new, shortened name as of only a few days ago -- began as the Arizona Open back in 1932, making it the fifth-oldest event on Tour. As you'll recall, three-time major champion Ralph Guldahl won that inaugural tournament, kick-starting a Hall of Fame list of champions: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Bobby Locke, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Ken Venturi, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller and Phil Mickelson, among others. For one year, 1950, the tournament was even known at the Ben Hogan Open, and it was won by Demaret.
The tournament has been at it present location at the Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale for 35 years. Why change? It's such a fun track. The aforementioned par-3 16th is part of a four-hole finish that lends itself to big swings atop the leaderboard. The 15th is a 553-yard reachable par-5, the 17th is a 332-yard risk/reward drivable/water-filled par-4 and No. 18 is a 442-yarder with more water and church pew bunkers. Just last year, Schauffele found the water on 17, opening the door for Koepka to rally from a five-stroke deficit. There were 10 eagles on No. 15 and eight on No. 17, but there were also 10 double bogeys or worse on 17 -- yes, risk/reward indeed. In all, there is water on six holes, so a lot can happen anywhere on the course.
TPC Scottsdale plays shorter than the official distance, thanks to some 1,500 feet of altitude in the Phoenix area, and has only three par-5s, none of which reaches 560 yards. It's really is a ball-strikers' track, and some pretty bad putters have won there in recent years. The greens are fast, firm and of average size, a little more than 7,000 square feet. If you want to officially-officially know the grass type of the greens, it is "TifEagle bermudagrass overseeded w/ Poa Trivialis / perennial ryegrass," according to the officially-official golf course superintendents' sheet.
With the field a tidy 132, there are 24 fewer bottom-dwellers from last week. That should create a somewhat easier path to filling out your lineup, but you better get 6-for-6. More than half the field will probably make the cut (65 and ties). That lends itself to taking some risks on lower-priced golfers -- and conversely being able to stack two or three high-priced guys.
Weather-wise, expect a week of near perfection: Highs in the low 80s, no chance of rain and minimal wind. The whole tournament will be one big green-light special.
Wild WMPO Factoid: The strongest field this event has ever seen -- and that includes only the OWGR era, which dates to 1986 -- came in 2001. When you consider that, Marc Calcavecchia's win by eight shots was remarkable. Third place was 12 shots back and Calc bested Tiger Woods by a whopping 15 strokes. He shot a course-record-tying 60 in the second round and set a then-PGA Tour record with 32 birdies across 72 holes. Imagine beating 2001 Tiger Woods by 15 shots?
Sad WMPO Factoid: It was at this tournament three years ago that Johnny Miller signed off for the last time. He left after the third round, so as not to overshadow the end of the tournament, and was replaced on NBC by Paul Azinger. Miller's absence was felt immediately, as Rickie Fowler was handed a head-scratching penalty on No. 11. Fowler survived to win, but he has not won since.
Key Stats to Winning at TPC Scottsdale
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Ball striking/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
Past Champions
2021 - Brooks Koepka
2020 - Webb Simpson
2019 - Rickie Fowler
2018 - Gary Woodland
2017 - Hideki Matsuyama
2016 - Hideki Matsuyama
2015 - Brooks Koepka
2014 - Kevin Stadler
2013 - Phil Mickelson
2012 - Kyle Stanley
Champion's Profile
The winning score has been remarkably consistent through the years, between 17- and 19-under in the past five editions. In the past 14 years, it's fallen between 14- and 19-under every year but one: in 2013, when Mickelson blew the doors off with a tournament-record-tying 28-under (how's that for an outlier?). There have been playoffs four of the past six years, with Simpson nipping snake-bit Tony Finau in 2020. Imagine Finau finishing fifth in putting and not winning? That's what happened. Bad putters very often putt well here, or well enough. Matsuyama has won twice. Stadler has won. Stanley has won. Among the last 10 winners, only Fowler and Mickelson were top-10 in putting -- not even Simpson, who was 12th. Koepka ranked 18th in the field. Really, this week will be all about ball striking and greens in regulation. Koepka led the field in GIR and was second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Co-runner-up K.H. Lee ranked fourth in GIR. Fellow runner-up Xander Schauffele was only T26 in GIR, but was lights-out on the greens, ranking fourth in SG: Putting. In prior years, Simpson and Finau were both top-10 in GIR, Woodland was fourth, Matsuyama was ranked first and second in his back-to-back wins and Koepka was fourth in 2015.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Patrick Cantlay - $10,700 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
No, there's not a glitch on your screen, there's really no Jon Rahm ($11,600) or Justin Thomas ($11,000) in these picks. Really, a case could be made for every guy $9,500 and up -- all seven of them. Rahm has been very good at his adopted hometown tournament, but not great. In his six starts, he has only three top-10s, and only one of them was a top-5 (T5 in his 2015 debut). And Thomas, despite finishing third two of the past three years, has only two top-10s in seven trips. Plus, both guys seem to be a smidge -- just a smidge -- off their world-class form. So we start with Cantlay, who is coming off a terrible week of iron play. And yet he finished fourth. Granted, the Pebble field was far weaker than this one. Cantlay, one of the great ball strikers in the world, will be making his tournament debut. The learning curve here is not so much the course but the atmosphere. If Cantlay can handle the Pebble Beach atmosphere, he likely can handle Phoenix.
Hideki Matsuyama - $10,400 (+1400)
Matsuyama has won here twice, though that seems a lifetime ago in 2016-17. His career dipped in the interim until reigniting in the past year with three wins, including the Sony just last month. Matsuyama is still putting statistically as bad as he ever has, but somehow that's not getting in the way of his success.
Viktor Hovland - $10,200 (+1600)
Hovland is the hottest thing in golf, having zoomed to third in the world with a win two weeks ago at Dubai. If you're scoring at home, that's three wins in his past five starts (though none has come in the United States -- Mexico, the Bahamas, Dubai -- not that that means anything). Hovland has played Phoenix once before, missing the cut in 2020. But that's irrelevant now.
Jordan Spieth - $9,900 (+1600)
First off, we should say that there are no 70-foot cliffs at TPC Scottsdale, though tee balls at the 16th hole might be just as perilous to some. By now Spieth likely has gotten over blowing a victory at Pebble Beach. He finished fourth here a year ago, kick-starting his return to elite golf status. A few years back, he was seventh and ninth here. Interestingly, Spieth's putting has not been as dominant this season as it has been in the past; his ball striking, however, has been awesome. So, if his putter catches up to his iron play ...
Tier 2 Values
Sam Burns - $9,300 (+3000)
After an incredible 10-tournament run in which Burns had results of 1-2-3-5-7-8, three other top-20s and a nothing worse than T21, he missed the cut at the Farmers. Exhale. That missed cut could suppress his ownership. Yes, the Torrey Pines field was tough, but not as tough as Burns faced in last year's playoffs. His stats everywhere but on the greens are otherworldly, and even his putting his decent. Burns tied for 22nd last year here after debuting with two missed cuts.
Seamus Power - $8,400 (+4000)
It's easy to say that Power blew the Pebble Beach win after leading at one point by five strokes. And that's probably fair. But he still held it together to tie for ninth, his fourth straight top-15 to open the year (and he had another one to close 2021). We keep saying that he can't keep this up forever, that one of these weeks there will be a clunker, but Power refuses to listen. He's played Phoenix only once before, missing the cut in 2019.
Corey Conners - $8,300 (+5000)
Conners missed three cuts worldwide in all of 2021. He's already missed two in 2022. Cause for concern? No. Conners is still ranked ninth on Tour this season in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in greens in regulation and 16th in Tee-to-Green. Heck, he's even 85th in SG: Putting, which is great for him. Conners has played Phoenix twice, tying for 17th last year.
Russell Henley - $8,200 (+3000)
Henley seems like a perfect fit for TPC Scottsdale. Except for the fact that he's missed the cut in four of his nine tries and never finished better than 15th. But it's so hard to turn away from rankings of 11th in ball striking and driving accuracy, plus 12th in greens in regulation, plus fourth on Tour in SG: Tee-to-Green this season. Henley has already finished second (Sony) and 14th (Amex) in 2022.
Tier 3 Values
Abraham Ancer - $7,900 (+5500)
It's not every day you find the No. 17-ranked golfer in the world way down here. Especially one whose specialty is ball striking. The thing is, Ancer has not been great this season. He's ranked a disastrous 150th in SG: Approach and 90th in greens in regulation. But somehow he's also ranked 32nd in birdie average. Ancer is coming off a top-10 in Saudi Arabia, which could be both good and bad. Good that he played well, but will he be ready so quickly after traveling halfway around the world? He's far from a slam dunk, but there's no denying the value at his price.
Talor Gooch - $7,800 (+5000)
We should mention right off the bat that Gooch has never done anything in three trips to Phoenix: MC-T61-MC. Ouch. So it would understandable if he just skipped this tournament. But he apparently thinks he can do better here, and we agree. Since winning RSM at the end of last year, Gooch has limited his regression, which is easier said than done for a first-time winner on Tour. He has two top-20s in 2022, including at the Farmers. He's ranked 22nd on Tour in ball striking, plus ninth in SG: Around-the-Green.
Keith Mitchell - $7,500 (+7000)
Did somebody say ball striking? Mitchell is really good at it, ranking 29th on Tour this season. He has started off 2022 well, already notching a pair of top-12s, including a T12 last week at Pebble. Mitchell missed the Phoenix Open cut last year but tied for 16th the year before.
Charles Howell III - $7,200 (+13000)
Howell is 42 years old and is being honored this week for his 600th career PGA Tour start. He's now ranked 190th in the world and his game definitely is springing some leaks. But he's still pretty good at getting to the weekend. It's mostly because of his ball striking, where he's ranked 19th on Tour. And 27th in greens in regulation. Howell has made his past five cuts this season, including a top-25 at the Amex. He's played Phoenix 15 times, making 13 cuts, but curiously this is his first visit since 2016.
Long-Shot Values
Adam Hadwin - $6,900 (+13000)
We don't usually see Hadwin's price start with a 6, it's normally a 7. Of course, $6,900 is pretty close to $7,000, but nonetheless we see some value here this week. Hadwin is ranked in the top-50 on Tour in every strokes-gained category but Off-the-Tee. That's a pretty solid all-around game. He has two top-25s already in 2022, including a tie for 16th last week at Pebble Beach. And Hadwin has made six straight cuts at this tournament beginning with a pair of top-20s in 2016 and '17.
Martin Laird - $6,800 (+15000)
This will be Laird's 14th trip to the Arizona desert. He's missed the cut only four times, though one of them was last year. At 39, the Scotsman remains a pretty darn good ball striker, ranking 19th on Tour this season. He's also top-25 in both SG; Approach and Tee-to-Green. And he's a decent wedge player. Which all adds up to putting issues, but we think the rest of his game will get him to Saturday.
Wyndham Clark - $6,600 (+15000)
Clark is the rare golfer who is among the very longest hitters but is also a decent putter. Maybe that's why he's made the cut in all seven of his starts this season, including last week at Pebble Beach. He is ranked 10th on Tour in driving distance and 21st in Strokes Gained: Putting. Everything else in between is pretty unsightly. This will be Clark's fourth go-round at Phoenix. He made the cut the past two years, finishing in the mid-30s on the leaderboard both times.
Matthew NeSmith - $6,600 (+20000)
If golf were played only with irons, NeSmith would be a lot better off. He's ranked 31st on Tour in SG: Approach and 43rd in Tee-to-Green. It's those clubs that we use before and after the irons that are troublesome for him, though he's still ranked 84th in ball striking. NeSmith has made four of his past five cuts this season, including a pretty fair T34 at Torrey Pines. And in his Phoenix debut a year ago he notched his only top-10 of the year, a tie for seventh.
