DraftKings PGA: THE PLAYERS Championship Picks and Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $25M
Winner's Share: $4.5M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.
Course: TPC Sawgrass, Stadium Course
Yardage: 7,255
Par: 72
2022 champion: Cameron Smith

Tournament Preview

THE PLAYERS Championship has always been the crown jewel of the PGA Tour's domain, just a notch below the majors in terms of prestige and importance. We can debate whether it is a major, the so-called fifth major. What it always had been was the first time in about 10 months that all the top golfers showed up in one place. Now, it'll be the fourth time in five weeks. Does that in any way detract from THE PLAYERS? You'll have to decide for yourself.

What's inarguable is that this tournament features the largest purse in PGA Tour history -- and that's really saying something with all the $20 million tournaments this season. Last year, THE PLAYERS was the first to ever pay out $20 million. Now, it's the first at $25 million. And the winner will get an astounding $4.5M, nearly a million more than the other designated-event winners.

As we have seen in the first three full-field designated events, that winner is likely to come from one of the game's elite. Scottie Scheffler won the WM Phoenix Open, Jon Rahm won the Genesis Invitational and, while top-50 golfer Kurt Kitayama won the Arnold Palmer Invitational, he was surrounded by some of the game's very best and is now No. 19 himself.

This week features nine of the top-10 in the world rankings, 23 of the top-25 and 44 of the top-50 in a 144-man field. But as we learned late Friday afternoon, that doesn't include Tiger Woods, who apparently wasn't where he wanted to be nearly a month after playing the Genesis. It's now almost certain we won't see Woods till the Masters next month.

This will be the fourth time THE PLAYERS has been contested in March since being repositioned in 2019. Remember, the 2020 PLAYERS was canceled after just one round at the onset of the global pandemic. It had been played in May from 2007-18, after taking place in March for its first 33 years, beginning with Jack Nicklaus capturing the inaugural edition in 1974. Just three players in this year's field have won THE PLAYERS in March -- Adam Scott in 2004, Rory McIlroy in 2019 and Justin Thomas in 2021. No one has ever won two PLAYERS in a row -- not Nicklaus, not Woods and not Cameron Smith, who won last year but is now LIVing it up elsewhere. In fact, it's very hard to ever win a second. More on that lower down.

One of the big questions in 2019 was how the course would play differently moving from the middle of spring to late winter. It turned out, there was a big change. The golfers said the course played longer in the cooler weather. Webb Simpson won at 18-under-par in 2018 in the final May edition and since then the winning score has consistently gone down, from McIlroy at 16-under in 2019 to Thomas at 14-under in 2021 to Smith at 13-under last year. TPC Sawgrass played as the 12th toughest track on Tour a year ago and had a whopping 263 double bogeys or worse, just two behind PGA National for most on Tour. But Sawgrass had the most "worse" -- meaning 47 triple bogeys or, um, worse.

Information provided by the PGA Tour showed that from 1997 through 2021 -- 12 times in March, 12 in May -- scores were on average three-quarters of a shot lower in May as opposed to March (72.48 vs. 73.23). There were 5 percent more rounds in the 60s in May, which makes sense in the warmer climate; but we also have to consider that since most of those March tournaments, meaning pre-2006, golf equipment and the golfers themselves have changed exponentially.

Even though all that sends some mixed messages, the most confounding issue at hand really is figuring out who will play well this week. Sure, that's the case every week, but since the tournament has been held at Sawgrass beginning in 1982, there have only been five two-time winners, and no three-timers. Woods is one of them, but he has had only five top-10s in 19 tries. Phil Mickelson, the 2007 winner, missed the cut in six of his last seven visits and owns only three top-10s in 26 starts. This doesn't happen often, maybe nowhere else on Tour, but it's really hard to label anyone a true horse for the course. Only one golfer has so much as finished in the top-25 the past two years, and that's Shane Lowry. Thomas won two years ago, adding to previous T3 and T11 finishes, but he fell back to T33 last year. Others perhaps close to being course horses are McIlroy, Scott, Jason Day and Hideki Matsuyama, all of whom have had great results but more recently have had little success. This probably is due at least in part to the consistent strength of the fields. The majors all let in secondary- or even tertiary-level players, be they aging ex-champs, amateurs, players from lesser Tours or even club pros. Not THE PLAYERS.

Okay, on to the course, which inched up about 70 yards to 7,255 beginning last year, still short for a par-72. Pete Dye-designed Sawgrass, despite having its quirks here and there, tends to be a pretty standard tee-to-green golf course. Distance is not paramount. Accuracy will be. There traditionally has not been much rough but it is up a full inch this year, from a somewhat manageable 2.5 inches to a stay-away-at-all-costs 3.5 inches. You can get away with mediocre putting on the medium-size bermudagrass greens averaging 5,500 square feet. There's water everywhere, but it truly comes into play on 14 of the 18 holes. No hole is more famous – perhaps anywhere in the world – than the 17th with its island green. It's a mere 137 yards, but it's all crystal blue water between the tee and green. Last year, it played well over par (3.265). If 17 isn't nerve-racking enough, the 462-yard 18th plays even harder. Last year, it was the second hardest hole during the entire PGA Tour season, playing more than a half shot over par at 4.53. There were a mere 25 birdies there all week.

Nos. 16-18 have seen far more water balls the past two decades than any other three-hole closing stretch on Tour, with 2,434, some 600 more than TPC Summerlin. There were more water balls on those three holes last year than the other 15 combined.

If a playoff is needed, it will be a three-hole aggregate on 16, 17 and 18. If golfers are still tied, they'd play 17, 18 and 16 in a loop until there's a winner. The Tour gets it right -- 17 is in the playoff.

As for the weather, we're looking at high temperatures in the 70s all four days. The best chance of rain is Friday afternoon, when it looks like it could be its windiest all week. Outside of Friday afternoon and Saturday morning, the wind should be manageable for the players.

Historical PLAYERS factoids: The list of former champions reads like a wing in the Hall of Fame. Nicklaus, Woods, Mickelson, McIlroy, Norman, Trevino, Floyd, Couples, Price, Scott, Day, Thomas, Love, Duval and Lyle. There have been only five two-time champions since the tournament moved to Sawgrass in 1982 – Woods, Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Hal Sutton and Steve Elkington – and it has taken a long time to pick up win No. 2. Only Elkington – the 1991 and 1997 champion – won again within 10 years. Sutton's wins, 1983 and 2000, came 17 years apart.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Sawgrass

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Tee to Green
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around the Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2022 - Cameron Smith
2021 - Justin Thomas
2020 - None
2019 - Rory McIlroy
2018 - Webb Simpson
2017 - Si Woo Kim
2016 - Jason Day
2015 - Rickie Fowler
2014 - Martin Kaymer
2013 - Tiger Woods

Champion's Profile

There is water almost everywhere, technically on 17 holes but in reality 14. As mentioned earlier, there were 263 double bogeys or worse last year, up from 239 in 2021 and way up from 204 in 2019. There were 64 alone on No. 17. Smith was far from flawless with 11 bogeys (two on 18), but he had zero doubles. He ranked only 52nd in greens in regulation and 35th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green but made more than 400 feet of putts and led the field in SG: Putting. The year before, Thomas was the exact opposite, ranking 42nd in Putting but leading the field in Tee-to-Green. That's what makes this week so confounding -- there is no *one* Champion's Profile. Thomas had seven bogeys but also two doubles. In 2019, McIlroy played only six holes over par – five bogeys and one double. He played No. 17 in 2-under. Don't misunderstand – there are birdies to be had and this usually isn't a single-digit-tough track -- but it's ar from a birdie-fest. In 2018, playing in May, Simpson played it vanilla safe: He was dead-last in the field in driving distance but first in accuracy. And he won in a romp. The year before, Kim won at 10-under and had only six bogeys, none of them a double. That's asking a lot of anyone, but you get the picture. Like Smith, Simpson was also first in SG: Putting, but more times than not, the winners have ranked far outside the top-10. Thomas ranked 42nd, McIlroy was 45th, Kim was 37th, Fowler was 20th, Kaymer was 19th and Woods was 38th. Distance off the tee is not paramount. Even Bryson DeChambeau realized that -- he tied for third two years ago while ranking 11th in driving distance. The over/under on the winning score per golfodds.com is 274.5 -- 13.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Rory McIlroy - $11,000 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +900) 
For the second straight, we're respectfully sidestepping the world No. 1 and turning to this guy and the next one on the list. Last week, the strategy paid off. While Rahm of course could win this week, he's coming off a rather startling T39 at Bay Hill and has never finished higher than ninth at Sawgrass in five starts. And he costs a significant $800 more than McIlroy and $1,200 more than Scheffler. The divide between them is not *that* great. Remember, these prices were released before the conclusion of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. As for McIlroy, he won here in 2019, has some other top-10s through the years and showed last week that he is rounding into form. If his putting comes around, and it started to last week, watch out.

Scottie Scheffler - $10,600 (+1000) 
On some level, this pick makes no sense. Scheffler has played this tournament twice. He missed the cut in 2021 and tied for 55th in 2022. That result last year came amid his four-wins-in-six-tournaments stretch, making it even more perplexing. On paper, Scheffler should do great at Sawgrass, a course that will expose your weaknesses if you have any. Scheffler doesn't have any. He even leads the Tour in bogey avoidance.

Max Homa - $9,900 (+2200)  
At courses that require golfers to use every club in their bag, Homa jumps toward the top of a lot of lists, including ours. He doesn't normally excel in any one area -- though his approach play over his past 24 rounds has been the best on Tour. And yet he's also a very cautious player, ranking 10th in bogey avoidance. Homa missed the cut in his PLAYERS debut two years ago but tied for 13th last year.

Patrick Cantlay - $9,700 (+1600)  
Cantlay has missed the cut here the past three times, which makes no sense. Even more so considering he finished top-25 in his first two tries. Cantlay somewhat quietly had top-5 results in his past two starts at Riviera and Bay Hill. Of all the things Cantlay does well on a golf course, playing smart may be the most important. He's ranked second on Tour in bogey avoidance.

Tier 2 Values

Justin Thomas - $9,400 (+2200) 
As mentioned earlier, Thomas is one of the few guys with any semblance of a consistently good record at this course. He won two years ago. He has not been great in his five 2023 starts outside of a T4 at Phoenix. But he's been top-25 in the other four. So he probably feels pretty good about his game, other than making a few too many bogeys every week.

Tony Finau - $9,200 (+3000)
Here's another guy whose Sawgrass course history makes little sense -- four missed cuts in six starts. Finau has finished in the top-25 in all six of his 2023 starts, with a pair of top-10s, though he has yet to really contend. His stats say he's playing better than the leaderboard shows. He's ranked second on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 24 rounds and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. As we've mentioned often, even Finau's putting is far improved.

Shane Lowry - $8,200 (+5500) 
A lot of gamers will probably pick up on that little tidbit mentioned earlier, that Lowry is the only golfer who has finished in the top-25 here the past two years -- 13th last year, eighth the year before. With a new caddie in tow, Lowry finished T14 at the Genesis and T5 at the Honda before a clunker last week at Bay Hill (solo 67th). Lowry is ranked 22nd on Tour in driving accuracy, a stat taking on added importance this week with the rough up an inch, and 29th in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

Jason Day - $8,000 (+3000) 
There wasn't a lot of thought that went into this pick. Day is riding four consecutive top-10s. Over his past 24 rounds, he leads the Tour in bogey avoidance and his second in SG: Putting, stats that surely are not mutually exclusive. Really, Day's stats are great across the board. He won here in his magical 2016 season and had top-10s in both 2018 and '19.

Tier 3 Values

Si Woo Kim - $7,600 (+5500) 
Kim is on the outer edge of horse-for-course status at Sawgrass. He won there in 2017 (in May). He was just 21 at the time. He finished ninth there two years ago (in March). After winning the Sony Open in January, Kim kept his foot on the gas with three straight top-25s. Therefore, his season-long stats are impressive. Among them, Kim is ranked 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 15th in driving accuracy and 16th in bogey avoidance. Really solid.

Sahith Theegala - $7,600 (+8000) 
Theegala is on a roll. After finishing in the top-six at the two SoCal tournaments, the California native did almost as well at Bay Hill with a tie for 14th. All of those came with very favorable DK prices, just like this week. Theegala is sound statistically across the board, ranking top-30 over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach, Around-the-Green and Tee-to-Green, and just outside the top 30 in Putting. He's 33rd on the season in bogey avoidance.

Rickie Fowler - $7,500 (+6000) 
There's no question about it: Fowler is playing his best golf in years. The 2015 PLAYERS champion has made seven straight cuts going back to last year, and that includes all three recent loaded-field designated events. He was 31st at Bay Hill, 20th at Riviera, 10th at Phoenix. Fowler is ranked an elite sixth on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach over his past 24 rounds. His putting, so bad at the beginning of the season, is markedly improved, as he now ranks 63rd in that department.

Thomas Detry - $7,100 (+25000) 
This is getting to the area where you hope your guy makes the cut and gets something going on the weekend. Detry has missed just one cut over his past 16 PGA Tour starts -- and that came when he withdrew due to injury after the first round of the Honda. He came right back with a top-25 at the Arnold Palmer. Detry doesn't have the greatest stats, but he somehow manages to get to Saturday. He's ranked 14th on Tour in bogey avoidance. Maybe that's how.

Long-Shot Values

Justin Suh - $6,600 (+20000)
This will be Suh's Stadium Course debut. Not optimum, but at this price and the way he's playing, let's do it. Suh had a top-25 at Bay Hill, after another at Torrey Pines, had a top-5 at the Honda and made the cut at the Genesis. His season-long stats don't pop, but over his past 24 rounds everything is better -- he's fourth in proximity over that stretch while just outside the top-25 in SG: Putting.

Robby Shelton - $6,600 (+30000) 
Shelton's biggest drawback is he's a short hitter, outside the top 170 in driving distance. And yet he has outstanding approach numbers and good recent results -- five straight made cuts with top-25s at the Amex, Pebble Beach and the Honda. Yes, all lesser fields, but he also made the cut at Torrey Pines and Bay Hill. Shelton is ranked 33rd on Tour in SG: Approach and 56th in bogey avoidance.

Davis Riley - $6,500 (+18000) 
This price was set before Riley tied for eighth at Bay Hill. He's clearly found something in his past two starts, and the first place to look is a recent caddie change. Even though Riley had a great first half to 2022, he didn't make it into THE PLAYERS so this will be his debut. Over his past 24 rounds, Riley is ranked 22nd on Tour in SG: Approach.

Danny Willett - $6,400 (+30000)
We wrote last week how Willett has the potential to be really good, or he could wreck your lineup. He didn't wreck our lineup, tying for 34th at Bay Hill for his fourth straight made cut, one of which was a T18 at the Genesis. Willett is another short hitter who relies on an above-average short game. His approach numbers could and should improve on a shorter Stadium Course. Willett is ranked 26th on Tour in bogey avoidance, and that number improves to 16th over his past 24 rounds.

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