This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
Purse: $8.9M
Winner's Share: $1.602M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Yardage: 7,392
Par: 72
2017 champion: Jason Dufner
Tournament Preview
The Memorial annually features one of the top fields on Tour, but this year it's off-the-charts bonkers. Eight of the top 10 in the OWGR are entered -- only No. 4 Jon Rahm and No. 9 Brooks Koepka are taking a pass -- and that doesn't even include the two biggest names, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson. In all, 32 of the top 50 in the world will fill out more than a quarter of the 120-man by-invite field. This could be the strongest field in the history of the Memorial, which dates to 1976 -- when none other than Roger Maltbie won it!
We have the usual storyline for "Jack's Place" -- a stern test of golf serving as the perfect precursor to the U.S. Open two weeks away. We also have the five-time champion Woods back for the first time since 2015. Justin Thomas plays for the first time as No. 1 in the world, but his stint could be short-lived as all of No. 2 Dustin Johnson, new No. 3 Justin Rose and No. 5 Jordan Spieth have a chance to overtake him.
As we say every year, all facets of a golfer's game will be tested at Muirfield Village -- that's the way Jack Nicklaus wants it, that's the way he designed it. While Nicklaus always put a premium on driving in his playing days, the holes tend to get harder closer to the green. And the back nine has traditionally played harder than the front. Last year, five of the six hardest holes were on the back, including the last three. Again, that's by design. When constructing lineups, if deciding between two similar guys, we wouldn't find fault in picking the guy starting at No. 1 on Thursday as opposed to No. 10. Getting off to a good start can boost momentum, just like getting off to a bad start can do the opposite. Another interesting caveat here is the difficult collection of par-3s. All exceed 180 yards, and three of them were among the four hardest holes on the course last year. No. 16, a 201-yarder to a narrow green alongside a large pond, is traditionally the toughest. There is water on more than half the holes, not to mention a boatload of bunkers. The greens have undulations and are super fast, with some calling them "Augusta-like."
With only 120 golfers, roughly 60 percent of the field will make the cut. That provides opportunity to take gambles on lower-priced options and utilize a stars-and-scrubs approach. Nicklaus annually issues a handful of sponsor exemptions while inviting top amateurs, money leaders from international tours and all members of the most recent Ryder and Presidents Cup teams -- no matter what their games look like today.
Weather-wise it could be a doozy, as we head to the first northern tournament of 2018. Forecasters are calling for thunderstorms and windy conditions on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. All that is expected to calm down into a mild weekend. At this point, with so much rain expected over the first two rounds, it's impossible to determine if there's a tee-time advantage. You have the luxury of waiting until the Thursday morning lock to sort that out.
Key Stats to Winning at Muirfield Village (in order of importance)
Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Proximity to the hole
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Putting average/strokes gained: putting
• Par 3 efficiency
Past Champions
2007 - Jason Dufner
2006 - William McGirt
2015 - David Lingmerth
2014 - Hideki Matsuyama
2013 - Matt Kuchar
2012 - Tiger Woods
2011 - Steve Stricker
2010 - Justin Rose
2009 - Tiger Woods
2008 - Kenny Perry
Champion's Profile:
If you look at the 10 names above, a few things stand out. One is that, aside from Matsuyama, there were no youngsters -- seven of the 10 were over 30 at the time of their victories. Secondly, you don't have to be a big hitter to win at Muirfield Village. Driving distance and, to a degree, driving accuracy aren't as important as iron play, both from the fairways and off the tee at the par-3s. The four par-5s are all gettable by just about everyone in the field -- two of them aren't even 530 yards. Getting on the green in regulation is always important, but this week it goes up a notch with proximity to the hole a key metric. Dufner, McGirt and Matsuyama all ranked top-10 in the field in proximity. None of them was among the putting leaders for the week, but by landing their approach shots in the best spots, they didn't have to be. Even Woods was far back in putting when he last won here in 2012. There's no one way to win at Muirfield. We've seen some big names, we've seen some surprises. You rarely can go wrong with guys possessing a strong iron game.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Dustin Johnson - $11,300 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)
Johnson has teed it up nine times this season. He has a win, five top-10s and eight top-20s. And yet he recently lost his No. 1 ranking. Johnson has a pair of top-5s through the years at the Memorial. He's ranked first on Tour in strokes gained: off the tee, second in tee to green, 16th in greens in regulation and 34th in strokes gained: putting. He's even T10 in par-3 performance.
Justin Thomas - $10,300 (14-1)
What's wrong with this picture? Thomas is No. 1 in the world, yet he is No. 5 on the DraftKings board, a full $1,000 behind Johnson. This is the quintessential example of looking for, and finding, value. We like Johnson this week, but we like Thomas more, and love him at this price. Thomas tied for fourth here last year. He's seventh in strokes gained: approach and eighth in scrambling..
Jordan Spieth - $9,800 (16-1)
Yes, we know he can't putt. He couldn't putt at the Masters either, yet tied for third there. At Muirfield, like at Augusta, the greens are super fast, but the real key to taming them is landing your approach in the right section of the green. Spieth is tied for first on tour in proximity to the hole, second in strokes gained: tee to green, eighth in strokes gained: approach. And he's also now down to mind-numbing 192nd in SG: putting.
Tier 2 Values
Tiger Woods - $9,400 (20-1)
Five wins in 15 trips, eight top-10s, no missed cuts. That's a pretty good track record in this event for Woods. Of course, that was the old Tiger. The new Tiger finished T5 at Bay Hill, a course at which he has also historically dominated. For all of Woods' woes with his driver, he is ranked 14th on Tour in strokes gained: approach. He's also eighth in strokes gained: around the green. A moment ago we wrote of finding value in our value picks. We're certainly paying the Tiger premium here, as he is the No. 8 guy on the DK board.
Henrik Stenson - $9,200 (25-1)
Stenson has not played here in years, and when he did, he was terrible -- he has never even recorded a top-40. That makes no sense for a golfer with Stenson's machine-like tee-to-green skills. The Swede leads the Tour in both greens in regulation and strokes gained: approach. He's 28th in proximity. That's how he tied for fifth at the Masters.
Marc Leishman - $9,000 (30-1)
Leishman tied for 15th here last year, 11th the year before that and fifth the year before that. His season-long numbers don't suggest a similar result this time around, aalthough he is 26th in SG: approach. But they didn't suggest a top-10 at the Masters, either, and he finished ninth.
Bubba Watson - $8,700 (30-1)
In the middle of the mess that was Watson's 2016-17 season, he tied for sixth at the Memorial. Three years before that, he was third. Watson is ranked sixth in strokes gained: off the tee, a big reason why he is eighth in greens in regulation. Like Stenson, Watson tied for fifth at Augusta.
Emiliano Grillo - $8,400 (40-1)
There's no reason to stop picking Grillo now, certainly not after a T3 last week at Fort Worth, his fifth top-10 and seventh top-25 of the season. Grillo is first on Tour in par 3 performance, 17th in strokes gained: approach and 32nd in proximity. He tied for 11th in his maiden visit to Muirfield Village two years ago.
Tier 3 Values
Chesson Hadley - $7,900 (60-1)
As with Grillo, why stop now? Hadley's T20 last week at Colonial matched his worst showing over the past two months. He's ranked third in proximity, fourth in strokes gained: approach, T19 in par 3 performance.
Kevin Na - $7,600 (50-1)
Na tied for fourth last week at Fort Worth, a week after tying for sixth at the Byron Nelson. He shot a 61 and a 62 last week. Before those two events, it hadn't been a good season for Na. Yet he is still first on Tour in strokes gained: around the green, T32 in proximity and 35th in strokes gained: approach. Na is even T10 in par-3 performance. He was the runner-up here back in 2014.
Ryan Moore - $7,500 (80-1)
Something about Muirfield agrees with Moore, who has six top-20 finishes over the years. Moore misses the occasional cut -- three in 13 starts this season -- but he also has six top-25s on the year and just missed another with a T28 at Augusta. Moore ranks 14th in strokes gained: tee to green, 28th in strokes gained: around the green and 34th in approach.
Keegan Bradley - $7,200 (80-1)
Before missing the cut here last year, Bradley fashioned back-to-back T8s. He's another guy who can't putt, but ranking third in strokes gained: approach and T9 in proximity should muffle that somewhat. Bradley is coming off a top-10 in his last start at THE PLAYERS.
Long-Shot Values
J.J. Spaun - $7,100 (Field, 18-1)
It's been an all-or-nothing, injury-plagued season for Spaun. He has missed the weekend in more than half his starts, but in the eight times he has stuck around he has finished in the top 25 five times. That includes a tie for third at the Byron Nelson a couple of weeks back. Despite those big swings, Spaun is 11th in strokes gained: approach, 23rd in proximity and 44th in SG tee to green.
Bill Haas - $7,100 (100-1)
Something clicked for Haas back in 2014 after years of poor to mediocre finishes at Muirfield. Over his past five visits, he notched two top-10s and two more top-25s. He's also coming off a tie for 14th last week at Colonial. Haas is only 130th in the FedEx Cup standings, but he's 73rd in strokes gained: approach and an even better 61st in SG: tee to green. He's also 17th in strokes gained: around the green.
Satoshi Kodaira - $6,900 (150-1)
Clearly price setters and oddsmakers don't think much of Kodaira being ranked No. 32 in the world or his recent victory. Kodaira missed two cuts right after capturing the RBC Heritage -- far from unexpected after a maiden win -- but returned to form with tie for 20th last week at Colonial. Kodaira is only 82nd in strokes gained: approach but stands 20th in proximity.
Cameron Davis - $6,900 (125-1)
We mentioned that about 60 percent of the field makes the cut. Here's where we'll make an educated reach. Davis is a 23-year-old Aussie who stared down Jason Day to win the Australian Open back in November. He won on the Web.com Tour last week, two weeks after tying for fourth. Davis has played three PGA Tour events, beginning with a T15 at the 2016 OHL Classic. This season, he tied for 58th at Torrey Pines and missed the cut at Pebble Beach. He's moving way up in class this week, but for what it's worth, Davis is eighth on the Web.com Tour in greens in regulation, seventh in scrambling and ninth in putting average.
