DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Texas Open

DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Texas Open

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

TEXAS OPEN

Purse: $6.2M
Winner's Share: $1,116,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio
Course: TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks)
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72

Tournament Preview

Just two weeks remain before Jim Nance echoes his velvety words around Augusta National, but first the PGA Tour will do the Texas two-step in San Antonio and Houston to warm up its game for the season's first major. TPC San Antonio is the first stop, with names like Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar throwing their hats in the ring to form a field much better than that of a year ago. The course itself is long at 7,435 yards, with long par-5s that will force most of the field to lay up and work the wedge game to make birdie. With tight fairways, deep bunkers and native vegetation in play off the fairway, the course is tough to navigate.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio

Total Driving (slight emphasis on distance)
GIR%
Scrambling

Last Decade of Texas Open Champions

2014 - Steven Bowditch
2013 - Martin Laird
2012 - Ben Curtis
2011 - Brendan Steele
2010 - Adam Scott
2009 - Zach Johnson
2008 - Zach Johnson
2007 - Justin Leonard
2006 - Eric Axley
2005 - Robert Gamez

There is quite a range in talent among the last 10 winners at TPC San Antonio, but one thing is certain: driving the ball well is imperative to playing well here. Players need

TEXAS OPEN

Purse: $6.2M
Winner's Share: $1,116,000
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: San Antonio
Course: TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks)
Yardage: 7,435
Par: 72

Tournament Preview

Just two weeks remain before Jim Nance echoes his velvety words around Augusta National, but first the PGA Tour will do the Texas two-step in San Antonio and Houston to warm up its game for the season's first major. TPC San Antonio is the first stop, with names like Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Jim Furyk and Matt Kuchar throwing their hats in the ring to form a field much better than that of a year ago. The course itself is long at 7,435 yards, with long par-5s that will force most of the field to lay up and work the wedge game to make birdie. With tight fairways, deep bunkers and native vegetation in play off the fairway, the course is tough to navigate.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC San Antonio

Total Driving (slight emphasis on distance)
GIR%
Scrambling

Last Decade of Texas Open Champions

2014 - Steven Bowditch
2013 - Martin Laird
2012 - Ben Curtis
2011 - Brendan Steele
2010 - Adam Scott
2009 - Zach Johnson
2008 - Zach Johnson
2007 - Justin Leonard
2006 - Eric Axley
2005 - Robert Gamez

There is quite a range in talent among the last 10 winners at TPC San Antonio, but one thing is certain: driving the ball well is imperative to playing well here. Players need to be accurate, but power will go a long way on the longer par-3s, especially if the Texas wind inevitably sweeps through the course. The last few years, players have hit just 55-60 percent of their greens in regulation and only made par or better on 50 percent of missed greens, making scrambling a huge factor in remaining on top of the leaderboard. It's why players like Zach Johnson, Jim Furyk and Fredrik Jacobson have solid histories at this event.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $14,000 (Odds: 8/1)
Dustin Johnson - $13,200 (9/1)
Jimmy Walker - $10,800 (20/1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Martin Kaymer - $9,800 (Odds: 25/1)
Phil Mickelson $9,600 (25/1)
Brendon Todd - $8,900 (40/1)
Brendan Steele - $8,800 (40/1)
Billy Horschel - $8,900 (45/1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Daniel Berger - $8,000 (Odds: 50/1)
Matt Every - $7,900 (50/1)
Justin Thomas - $7,700 (55/1)
Nick Watney - $7,600 (55/1)
Graham DeLaet - $7,500 (55/1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Branden Grace - $6,600 (Odds: 90/1)
Scott Piercy - $6,500 (100/1)
Sang-Moon Bae - $6,400 (100/1)
Seung-Yul Noh - $6,300 (125/1)
George McNeill - $6,200 (125/1)
Ben Curtis - $5,300 (200/1)
Max Homa - $5,000 (200/1)

WHO I'M ROLLING WITH THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Jim Furyk - $11,000
Zach Johnson - $10,100
Jason Kokrak - $8,500
Charley Hoffman - $8,300
Fredrik Jacobson - $7,100
Max Homa - $5,000

Against my greater judgment, overpaying for four players with GREAT track records might pay some nice dividends in a cash game lineup this week. Furyk has two top-6s his last two trips to San Antonio, and Zach Johnson's two wins are surely no fluke. Charley Hoffman has yet to wield a trophy but has come close twice and has run off six consecutive top-15s at this event dating to 2009. Kokrak is simmering with top-10s the last two weeks and finished T31 and T15 his last tries here. Finally, Homa is a great find in the bargain bin at $5,000 and will be gravy on the potatoes if he can avoid slamming the trunk on Friday to stay the weekend.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup
($50K Salary Cap)

Dustin Johnson - $13,200
Phil Mickelson - $9,600
Graham DeLaet - $7,500
Brandon Grace - $6,600
Scott Piercy - $6,500
Danny Lee - $6,400

If talent could move mountains, Dustin Johnson would have a dictatorship over the Rockies. Fresh off a win at the WGC-Cadillac, DJ will look to make it back-to-back wins in his first start at the Texas Open. Mickelson has been mediocre this season with just two top-25s, but just when you think he's hit a wall he pounces back into contention and finds the winner's circle. DeLaet is a risk coming off two missed cuts and a withdrawal from the Valspar a couple weeks ago, but prior to that he had two top-10s in February, so I'm hoping he's not hiding an injury and his talent will shine through this week. Piercy has a sneaky top-20 in his last start at the Texas Open in 2012 and is playing well this season with a runner-up at the Sony Open in January. Grace has won twice in the European Tour since December and Lee has reeled off consecutive top-20s the last two weeks.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Riek
Michael is the 2016 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year winner. He is a former collegiate golfer with a passion for analytics and strategy.
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