This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE GREENBRIER CLASSIC
Purse: $7.1M
Winner's Share: $1.278M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: White Sulphur Springs, W.Va.
Course: The Old White TPC
Yardage: 7,287
Par: 70
2015 champion: Danny Lee
Tournament Preview
When you go to the Greenbrier Classic website and click on "2016 in Review," all you'll see are pictures of a golf course largely under water with toppled trees, damaged buildings and other remnants of the devastating fatal floods that forced cancellation of what was to be seventh edition of the tournament. The Old White TPC is back in tip-top shape, largely unchanged from when Danny Lee won there back in 2015 (fresh grasses on the greens being the biggest change). Some of the widest fairways this side of Kapalua remain in place, averaging 35 yards wide at the 300-yard mark and a whopping 38 at 325. Still, don't think that gives an advantage to the biggest hitters. Historically, that has not been the case, and furthermore the course is some 2,000 feet above sea level, giving everyone in the field a little extra oomph on their distance (the fairways narrow to 30 yards wide at the 350-yard mark, so unmitigated bombing is not entirely prudent).
The field? What about the field, you ask? Don't ask. There are exactly zero golfers in the top-20 in the OWGR on hand. Greenbrier homeowner, company pitchman and No. 25-ranked Phil Mickelson is the headliner, although some might give that nod to his first new caddie in a quarter-century, his younger brother Tim. No. 21 Patrick Reed, No. 24 Kevin Kisner and No. 31 Si Woo Kim round out the slim quartet of top-35 golfers entered. Reed will be playing for the fourth straight week and eighth time in 10 weeks going back to the Wells Fargo (hint: That concerns us). Oh, and John Daly is also playing, so maybe he is the true headliner, though not for DraftKings purposes (he's a bargain-basement $6,000).
As for the course, Old White was home to the lowest final-round scoring average on Tour back in 2015, the par-70 playing at 68.57. So even with just two par-5s, both on the outward nine, we're in for some scoring. Lee's 13-under in 2015 tied for the highest winning score in the first six editions of the tournament. No one has come close to the 258 Stuart Appleby posted when he famously shot a 59 to win the inaugural Greenbrier, but the course was lengthened after that. Perhaps the track's most notable feature is, unfortunately, a closing par-3. Yes, the final tee shot on Sunday will be hit with, oh, maybe a 7- or 8-iron. How about a hole-in-one for the win? Granted, that would be electric, but short of the that, the largely mundane 175-yard hole results in birdie about 25 percent of the time and bogey less than 10 percent. Interestingly (or sadly), No. 18 is the shortest of the otherwise long four par-3s, all in excess of 200 yards.
Weather-wise, it could be raining right now as you read this. There was a 50- to 80-percent chance of rain every day Tuesday through Saturday, which would soften and lengthen The Old White.
Key Stats to Winning at The Old White TPC (in order of importance)
• Greens in regulation/strokes gained approach
• Strokes gained tee to green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Scrambling/strokes gained around the green
• Birdie or better percentage
Past Champions
2015 - Danny Lee
2014 – Angel Cabrera
2013 – Jonas Blixt
2012 – Ted Potter Jr.
2011 – Scott Stallings
2010 – Stuart Appleby
Champion's Profile:
With so few big names in a maximum field of 156, lineup construction is especially challenging this week. Even though the fairways are quite wide, that hasn't favored the longest hitters. Only once has the winner finished top-10 in distance off the tee (Scott Stallings), and Danny Lee was literally and figuratively far back at 54th in driving distance. Even the standard greens in regulation/scrambling combination that has taken on greater and greater importance on the PGA Tour is somewhat muted this year. A look at the first page of the past three final Greenbrier leaderboards shows various combinations of GIR/proximity/scrambling acumen. The biggest constant on those three leaderboards is putting. And that's understandable with some of the largest greens the golfers will see all season, averaging some 7,000 square feet. Bigger greens give an edge to the best putters. We're not ready to abandon our GIR/scrambling (or strokes gained approach/around) formula -- far from it -- but putting and, along with that birdie or better percentage, take on a bigger role. Deciding between two golfers? Go with the hot putter this week.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
Tier 1 Values
Bill Haas - $10,800 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 15-1)
The ever-steady Haas missed three straight cuts in the spring, something he hadn't done in eight years. Since then, he's rolled together four successive top-25s. He's notched three top-25s at the Greenbrier, with a runner-up in 2012. For the season, Haas is ninth in GIR and eighth in scrambling. He's only 85th in strokes gained putting, but he's improved about a half-shot on the greens in his past few events.
Kevin Kisner - $10,700 (15-1)
Kisner missed the cut the first three times he played The Old White before finishing second to Lee two years ago. He's top-25 on Tour in strokes gained tee to green, approach and putting, and 30th in scrambling. There's nary a weakness in his game. Kisner last teed it up at Erin Hills, where he tied for 58th.
Phil Mickelson - $10,400 (20-1)
All eyes will be on Mickelson in his first tournament in 25 years without Jim "Bones" Mackay on his bag. It's been a month since Mickelson last played, tying for ninth at Memphis, having skipped the U.S. Open. While he hasn't really contended for a title all season, Mickelson is 15-for-15 in cuts with 10 top-25s and four top-10s. We all know how wild he can be off tee, but Mickelson is still ranked eighth in strokes gained: approach. His putting has been good, if not quite Mickelson-esqe, though we expect him to be a quick study on the greens this week. He's eighth on Tour in birdie-or-better percentage.
Tier 2 Values
Danny Lee - $9,500 (25-1)
Strong current form? Check. Strong course history? Check. The New Zealander was horrid the first half of the season. But something changed in March and, since May, something has really changed. Lee add another top-25 last week at TPC Potomac, his fourth since The Players. Three of them have been top-10s. He's usually a good putter, and was seventh in the field in strokes gained putting when he won here in 2015. But he's even taken it up a notch or two of late.
Russell Henley - $9,300 (30-1)
Henley is 19th in the point standings, but week in and week out, he's been no sure thing. Still, we think the Greenbrier suits him, and was he T5 here two years ago. Henley is 24th in greens in regulation and 14th in strokes gained putting, and he's also 33rd in birdies or better.
Tony Finau - $9,100 (25-1)
We've ridden Finau lots this season. We didn't last week, and his T29 was so-so and it didn't hurt us. We're back on the horse again this week with a golfer who is sixth in greens in regulation, eighth in strokes gained tee to green and also a far-from-shabby 51st in strokes gained around the green. Finau was 13th here two years ago, and it's hard to get much better without improved putting. Still, Finau ranks 10th in birdie or better.
Kevin Streelman - $8,900 (40-1)
After Streelman had strung together three straight top-25s, we jumped back on the Streelman bandwagon last week. And, lo and behold, he notched another top-25! So here we go again for a guy who all of a sudden has gotten hot with his putter (and, really, every club). Streelman is still in negative territory for strokes gained putting on the season, but during his hot streak he's well over 1 stroke gained, which would lead the season-long rankings.
J.B. Holmes - $8,500 (40-1)
Holmes has played Greenbrier five of its six editions, with a top-30 four times. No doubt that the golfer ranked 31st in birdies or better likes to let fly off the tee, and we're thinking this week's soft conditions will help keep his long drives in the fairway. Despite some accuracy issues, Holmes ranks 58th in strokes gained tee to green, and he's an even-better 48th in strokes gained around the green.
Tier 3 Values
Graham DeLaet - $8,400 (60-1)
The Canadian saw a streak of three straight cuts broken last week amid the scorching heat of Washington, D.C., and the narrow fairways of TPC Potomac. The weather and the fairways should be much more to DeLaet's liking this week. He's made the cut in all four starts here, including T12 in 2012. DeLaet is top-30 on Tour in both strokes gained approach and putting. He's 49th in birdies or better.
Bryson DeChambeau - $7,400 (60-1)
The young man with the funny hat missed a whopping eight straight cuts from April into June. Something has clicked in his past two starts, a T26 at the Travelers and a T17 at the Quicken Loans last week. Naturally, his season-long stats rankings are largely meaningless right now, though through all his troubles, DeChambeau is still 48th in strokes gained tee to green (14th in strokes gained off the tee).
Grayson Murray - $7,400 (100-1)
It's hard to believe someone who is 10-for-10 in cuts since April can be only 113th in the point standings. But that illustrates how bad Murray was from October to March. The rookie has left the Twitter trolls behind, for now, to let his clubs do the talking. Murray still has only one top-10 all season -- and that oddly came in October -- but his price is still favorable enough to dive in. What impressed us was that the normally wild-swinging Murray made the cut last week on the narrow fairways of TPC Potomac.
Harris English - $7,000 (50-1)
English has made four of his past five cuts, including three top-30s and a T46 on the wide-open fairways of Erin Hills. English is 35th in strokes gained around the green and 43rd in putting, and he's even a better-than-average 74th in approach. Only 50-1 for a $7,000 price tag? Yes, please.
Long-Shot Values
Matt Jones - $6,800 (60-1)
Jones is 132nd in the points race, but that's at least in part because his status on Tour hasn't given him a lot of starts. This will be just his 15th, and he already has five top-25s. A good short game and putter will do that. The Aussie is third on Tour in strokes gained approach. Jones had made seven of his past eight cuts, and he finished runner-up here to Jonas Blixt in 2013.
Ricky Barnes - $6,700 (Field, 9-4)
Barnes endures a lot of jokes among golf fans. Yes, "Mr. Thursday" seemingly frontloads his best rounds. But he's also made nine of his past 10 cuts dating to April, and has even notched three top-25s in his past five starts, including T17 last week. Barnes is top-70 on Tour in both strokes gained approach and putting.
Trey Mullinax - $6,400 (80-1)
Mullinax is another guy whose season-long numbers will make you blanche. It's like looking straight into an eclipse. (Actually, it's not anything like that, we have no idea why we said it). Anyway, the rookie has made three of his past four cuts, including last week at the Quicken Loans -- no small task for someone 182nd in driving accuracy. Greenbrier should be much more to his liking. Mullinax is 28th in birdie or better.
Seamus Power - $6,400 (150-1)
Here's what happened: Power made three cuts in a row, we picked him for the Travelers and he missed the cut. Then we passed on him last week at the Quicken Loans and he made the cut again. If you're scoring at home, that's four cuts in his past five starts. Power still has only one top-25 all season, but his game has been getting close. He's 34th in strokes gained around the green and 62nd in strokes gained tee to green. That doesn't jibe with a golfer ranked 142nd in the point standings. Unfortunately, a ranking of 123rd in strokes gained putting does.
