DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Fort Worth Invitational

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

Tournament Preview

If the "Fort Worth Invitational" doesn't sound familiar, that's because it's the third different name for this venerable Tour stop in the past four years. And it will change again next year when Charles Schwab comes on board as the title sponsor. But for now, with Dean & Deluca having taken their breads, pastries and gift baskets elsewhere after a scant two-year run, the tournament is left with a generic name. But as always, it's at Colonial, as it has been since 1946, second only to the Masters in terms of tournament longevity at one course.

The event is opposite one of the few European Tour powerhouses -- the BMW PGA Championship -- but there is an unusually strong field of 121 this year. At least, it's strong at the top. 18 of the top 50 in the OWGR are here, including an impressive four of the top 10 in Jordan Spieth, Jon Rahm, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler. The problem is, none of them is playing like a top-10 guy, a vexing little factoid that provided much angst in determining our Tier 1 picks. But we found many good options in Tiers 2 and 3, as this old-time layout brings a lot more golfers into the equation.

Colonial chokes off the long hitters with narrow fairways, trees and dog legs, which is a big reason why Annika Sorenstam famously chose this track for her one and only venture onto the PGA Tour 15 years ago. A similar course we can look to for guidance is Harbour Town, where the Tour stopped just last month. There are but two par-5s, only one of which is a real birdie hole. Colonial of course features the Horrible Horseshoe, which honestly sounds more like a children's book than one of the most treacherous stretches on Tour. The Bear Trap and the Snake Pit sound much more ominous, right? Still, Nos. 3-5 ranked among the seven toughest holes at Colonial last year, with the par-4, 481-yard fifth the hardest, ceding only 35 birdies all week. Colonial normally is mid-range tough among PGA Tour courses, but last year, with the wind whipping especially hard, it was the seventh-toughest track. Kevin Kisner won at 10-under, making only 16 birdies all week. He was first in fairways hit, second in greens in regulation, second in scrambling and third in strokes gained: putting, which all adds up to a blueprint for success this week. We'll take a closer look in the key stats and Champion's Profile below.

Weather-wise, we're looking at another scorcher. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s and approaching 100. There shouldn't be any rain of significance and the wind is even supposed to be on the light side. But they said the same thing last week at the nearby Byron Nelson and the Texas wind whipped up, after all.

Key Stats to Winning at Colonial (in order of importance)

Note - The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key stats" follow in importance.

• Greens in regulation/strokes gained: approach
• Scrambling/strokes gained: around the green
• Putting average/strokes gained putting
• Par 4 birdie or better

Past Champions

2007 - Kevin Kisner
2016 - Jordan Spieth
2015 - Chris Kirk
2014 - Adam Scott
2013 - Boo Weekley
2012 - Zach Johnson
2011 - David Toms
2010 - Zach Johnson
2009 - Steve Stricker
2008 - Phil Mickelson

Champion's Profile:

When you look at the list of recent winners -- Kisner, Kirk, Johnson, Toms, Stricker -- it tells you what it takes to tame Colonial. None was remotely close to being among the longest off the tee that week. Even Adam Scott, a pretty big hitter, was outside the top 50 in driving distance when he won in 2014. You do have to be more accurate with your tee ball, but since most guys will hit more fairways simply by clubbing down, we don't need to overly focus on driving-accuracy leaders. That brings us to our second shot and, with the small greens averaging only 4,500 square feet, it will be a challenge to find the putting surface. Historically, good putters have won here, though Scott was outside the top 25 in strokes gained: putting when he won. With only two par-5s, one of which is not really a birdie hole, par-4 scoring takes on added meaning this week.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

Tier 1 Values

Jon Rahm - $11,000 (Winning odds at golfodds.com: 12-1)
We really can find a reason to bypass Rahm, as we can and have done with the other three biggest names in the field: Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose and Rickie Fowler. Rahm has only one top-10 on Tour since he won the CareerBuilder in January, albeit a solo fourth at the Masters. He followed that up a week later with a win at the Spanish Open. Rahm impressively tied for second last year in his Colonial debut. He is ranked second on Tour in the par 4: birdie or better category and 23rd in greens in regulation.

Webb Simpson - $10,200 (20-1)
We normally like to steer clear of a golfer after a big win; it's natural to let down a bit. But Simpson is playing better than any of the four top-10 guys ahead of him on the DraftKings board. And he was top-5 at Colonial each of the past two years. Simpson is ranked top-25 in both strokes gained: approach and around the green, and by now it's well known he is fifth in strokes gained: putting. Oh, and Simpson also leads the Tour in scrambling.

Tier 2 Values

Matt Kuchar - $9,300 (30-1)
Kuchar had his Tour-best string of 30 straight made cuts end last week at the Byron Nelson. He said he didn't like the course. He likes Colonial, and has played well there over the years, most recently posting a T12 last year, T6 the year before and runner-up in 2013.

Adam Scott - $9,100 (25-1)
Scott has straightened out his game the past couple of weeks -- not literally, because he has always been pretty straight. His putting has improved, vaulting him to a T9 last week at the Byron Nelson and a T11 the week before at THE PLAYERS. Scott is ranked fourth on Tour in greens in regulation and 23rd in strokes gained: around. His putting ranking is still abysmal, though not as bad as Spieth's.

Patrick Cantlay - $9,000 (30-1)
Cantlay has played Colonial only once before, but that was a lifetime ago when he withdrew back in 2013. He is coming off a top-25 at The Players, and last month he tied for seventh at the RBC Heritage. Cantlay is ranked 19th on Tour in greens in regulation and 33rd in strokes gained: around the green.

Bryson DeChambeau - $8,800 (30-1)
DeChambeau did not have his best stuff at THE PLAYERS in his most recent start. But he had a run of top-5s before that, including one at Harbour Town, a track requiring similar skills to Colonial. DeChambeau is ranked 17th in strokes gained: approach, and he's 23rd in par 4: birdie or better.

Emiliano Grillo - $8,600 (40-1)
Grillo had an off year in 2017 and still tied for 24th at Colonial. With his game now humming along, a better finish is to be expected. Grillo is 18th in GIR this season, and even 17th in driving accuracy. He was T16 at Harbour Town last month.

Chesson Hadley - $8,300 (40-1)
Hadley's season has shown no signs of slowing down. He has top-10s in six of his starts, and just missed adding to that total in his past two tournaments. His most recent top-10 was last month at the RBC. Hadley is ranked fourth on Tour in strokes gained: approach and 17th in SG putting, and he's 14th in par 4 BOB.

Tier 3 Values

Kevin Kisner - $8,100 (40-1)
The defending champion is not having his finest season, but he did take a break from his subpar play to record a T7 at Harbour Town. Kisner has rung up three straight top-10s at Colonial. His short driving distance (ranked 182nd) has been a huge disadvantage, but it shouldn't be a big factor this week. Kisner ranks 12th in strokes gained: putting.

Brian Harman - $7,800 (50-1)
Harman has cooled off mightily after being a top-10 machine earlier this season. But his best result of late (T23) has been at Harbour Town. Harman was T7 at Colonial a year ago, and had another top-10 two years prior. He ranks 10th in par 4 BOB and is 22nd in GIR.

Adam Hadwin - $7,600 (60-1)
Hadwin has not missed a cut in 14 starts this season, half of them resulting in top-25s. He is ranked 22nd in strokes gained: around the green and 26th in approach. Hadwin did not have a great week last year at Colonial -- though he did make the cut, naturally -- but was T10 the year before and T5 in 2016.

Chez Reavie - $7,600 (80-1)
Reavie's accurate tee-to-green game is made for Colonial. He's third in driving accuracy and 21st in strokes gained: approach, plus he's 13th in scrambling. Reavie has been a mixed bag at Colonial, finishing T48 last season but also recording a T11 and a T5 earlier in the decade.

Long-Shot Values

Bill Haas - $7,100 (100-1)
Haas' game has been off, but his one good showing of late was a top-10 at Harbour Town. And he was T12 last year at Colonial, a course where his game is still relevant. We'd like a little more solid evidence to support this pick, but the cheap price helped make our decision. Haas ranks 31st in strokes gained: around the green.

Kevin Streelman - $7,100 (80-1)
Streelman recorded top-10s last month at both Hilton Head and San Antonio, and tied for 18th a year ago at Colonial. He is a sparkling fifth on Tour in greens in regulation.

Michael Thompson - $6,800 (Field, 10-1)
Thompson made the cut in six of his past seven starts, missing out only at THE PLAYERS. Likewise, he has made the cut 4-of-5 times at Colonial, with a best of T10 back in 2014. Thompson is 11th in strokes gained: putting and 54th in greens in regulation.

John Huh - $6,700 (150-1)
Huh has played Colonial six times, three of them missed cuts but the other three top-20s, including a T5 in 2012. He notched one of his four top-25s on the season last month at Harbour Town.