DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $8.5M
Winner's Share: $1.53M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Chiba, Japan
Course: Narashino Country Club
Yardage: 7,079
Par: 70
2023 Champion: Collin Morikawa

Tournament Preview

The PGA Tour's fall season is vitally important to so many golfers, plus the communities and charities that benefit. But it's not exactly must-see viewing. Most of the top players take extended breaks, barely surfacing from September through December. The one exception comes this week. In what clearly is the crown jewel of the so-called FedExCup Fall, the Tour makes its annual pilgrimage to Asia. And so many golfers with connections to Japan or the region will interrupt their offseason to acknowledge their heritage.

Native son and 2021 ZOZO winner Hideki Matsuyama, of course, heads the 78-man, no-cut field. Collin Morikawa is back to defend his title. They'll be joined by Koreans Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim, plus Xander Schauffele and Rickie Fowler, both with Japanese ancestry, and big-name players in Sahith Theegala, Justin Thomas, Max Homa and Will Zalatoris. 

The ZOZO used to be the centerpiece of the annual Asian Swing, a three-week stretch designed to grow both golf and the PGA Tour. But circumstances changed, the pandemic happened and now that centerpiece remains the only piece. And as much as the Tour would've loved for the Asian Swing to continue and grow, at least the best tournament of the three is the one still standing. There used to be PGA Tour events in Malaysia, Korea and China (a WGC). Malaysia went away and the ZOZO was born in 2019. And then Korea and China ceased to exist, leaving only Japan.

This will be the sixth year of the ZOZO Championship and its fifth iteration in Japan. In the inaugural event in 2019 and again the past three years, the tournament was played at Narashino Country Club; in 2020, there was a pandemic-induced redirect to Las Vegas. Tiger Woods won the first ZOZO for his record-tying 82nd and likely final PGA Tour victory. That was quite an introduction for the Tour in its first-ever tournament in Japan, and the second one in 2021 wasn't too shabby either. The country's pride and joy of men's golf, Matsuyama, made a triumphant return to his homeland as the 2020 Masters champion, then went out and won the ZOZO.

The ZOZO is co-sponsored by the PGA and Japan Tours and is contracted to run at least through 2025. The field has strict parameters: top-60 available from the FedEx Cup standings; the winner of the 2024 BMW Japan Golf Tour Championship (No. 393-ranked Hiroshi Iwata); the top eight available from the 2022 JGT money list, among them No. 206 Takahiro Hataji and No. 277 Ryo Ishikawa; and nine sponsor's invites, including Gary Woodland, Joel Dahmen and Satoshi Kodaira.

We can't lose sight that many Tour golfers are still fighting for playing privileges and hierarchy for next season, trying to end 2024 in the top-125 in the FedEx cup standings. For instance, S.H. Kim, who's also in the field, sits 123rd with Dahmen at 129th.

The 36-hole Narashino club not far from Tokyo opened in 1976. At about 7,100 yards, the course is short, even as a par-70. It's not a stock 70 -- there are five par-3s and three par-5s. There are some really short holes, some really long ones and not much in between. The par-3s are collectively short, with only one over 200 yards. The 10 par-4s are either less than 425 yards or more than 485. The par-5s are 587, 608 and the 562-yard 18th, which is the easiest hole on the course, meaning there is the potential for drama late on Sunday. There is water on four holes, but that's not enough of a defense for today's pros, so what other defenses are there? The fairways are narrow and tree-lined with dips and elevations, and there are dog legs. There is funky Zoysiagrass rough, and it's hard to control the ball coming out, so it's best to not be in it. Golfers will use driver only about half the time.

Each hole has two greens, which is customary in Japan. One set at Narashino is bentgrass, the other bermuda, and they do this in Japan to allow for seasonal changes. This week the golfers will use the bent greens and not rotate, other than on No. 4. If a ball lands on the other green, the golfer will get a free drop.

The four hardest holes last year were all long par-4s. The hardest was the fourth, at 505 yards with water almost the entire length. The other three were Nos. 9, 12 and 17, all around 490 yards. The par-5 18th was the by far the easiest hole on the course.

In 2019, Woods shot a 19-under 261 by racking up a whopping 27 birdies. Since then, scores have tempered, with Matsuyama (2021) and Keegan Bradley (2022) winning at 15-under before Morikawa did so last year at 14-under.

Twenty golfers have never played the ZOZO before. Five have played in every edition at Narashino: Matsuyama, Morikawa, Schauffele, Kodaira and, of course, Adam Schenk. We're leaning more on guys who have played here before and if they've played well. Of course, that's always the case. But it's accentuated this week with the long flight and being in a country where so much is different, not the least of which is the food. If we've seen a guy negotiate all that before, that's one less thing to wonder about.

As for the weather, it should not be much of a factor. High temperatures will be in the 70s all week, with a slight chance of rain every day and winds at about 10 mph.

Key Stats to Winning at Narashino

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Approach from 125-150 yards, 175-200 yards

Past Champions

2023 - Collin Morikawa
2022 - Keegan Bradley
2021 - Hideki Matsuyama
2020 - Patrick Cantlay (Sherwood CC)
2019 - Tiger Woods

Champion's Profile

The Tour does not provide strokes-gained data for its international tournaments, so we are left with traditional stats. Last year, Morikawa rolled to a six-shot win over Eric Cole and Beau Hossler, closing with a 7-under 63. He ranked fifth in the field in greens in regulation and sixth in putting. But he was not very accurate off the tee, a precursor of his accuracy issues throughout 2024.

Two years ago, Bradley won by one over Fowler and Andrew Putnam and by two over Emiliano Grillo. None of them were long off the tee; all averaged under 300 yards. All but Putnam were in the top-5 in greens in regulation. All but Grillo ranked top-15 in putting average.

The over/under on the winning score this week on golfodds.com was set at 265.5 -- 14.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Xander Schauffele - $11,500 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +450)
Schauffele has played this tournament every year. He has not been great, topping out at T9 two years ago. But this year he's been playing at level he had never reached before. The type of course and skill set required really hasn't mattered to him. 

Hideki Matsuyama - $10,200 (+750)
Matsuyama returned to his old self this season, seemingly free from the back and neck issues that had plagued him for a few years. Really, the last time he has played Narashino while fully healthy, he won there in 2021.

$9,000-$9,900

Sungjae Im - $9,800 (+1400)
Im has missed only one ZOZO, back in 2021. He tied for 12th last year. Interestingly, Im has not played in forever (for him) -- last time out was the Tour Championship in August. So, almost a two-month break. Everybody is different, but we saw last week that J.T. Poston returned from a nearly two-month break to win the Shriners. Im was outstanding the second half of the season, with six top-12s in his past eight starts.

Kurt Kitayama - $9,200 (+2200)
Kitayama has been playing well of late, tying for ninth last week at the Shriners with a top-25 the week before at the Black Desert Championship. He's done it with his approach play, ranking second in this field over his past 24 rounds -- and first in tee-to-green. Putting remains a huge weakness, but with scores not traditionally going very low here, that might be manageable for him. Kitayama tied for 16th here a year ago.

$8,000-$8,900

Beau Hossler - $8,900 (+3500)
Hossler has been among the top players this fall, finishing runner-up, 11th and 23rd in his past three starts. He's also done well at the ZOZO, sharing runner-up a year ago and tying for 16th in 2022. All that explains his high DFS price and relatively low betting odds.

J.J. Spaun - $8,300 (+4000)
Spaun is having an okay fall season. He grades out very well in approach and tee-to-green play over his past 24 rounds. He's also played here the past two years, with a top-25 in 2022 and a tie for sixth a year ago.

$7,000-$7,900

Matt Kuchar - $7,400 (+7000)
Kuchar is not someone who has played Narashino before. In fact, his one prior ZOZO was in Vegas in 2020. But what we like about Kuchar, besides his good play of late, is that he can shine on golf where you have to think your way around, rather than just pound driver. He's not the best long iron player, but there are a lot of short holes, which is more of his wheelhouse. Kuchar has finished T3-T12-T13-MC-T14 in his past five starts.

Adam Svensson - $7,300 (+8000)
Svensson has played here the past two years. He hasn't been great, but he did improve significantly from 2022 (T59) to 2023 (T41). He has a couple of top-25s so far in the fall, as well as two missed cuts. His approach play, particularly his long iron play, has been outstanding relative to the field over his past 24 rounds.

$6,000-$6,900

Ryosuke Kinoshita - $6,600 (+20000)
Most of the Japan Tour players are down here in the $6,000s. Kinoshita is ranked 266th in the world, but he has really come on since missing the cut at the Open Championship. He has five top-7 finishes in his past nine starts, including runner-up last time out at the Japan Open. This will be Kinoshita's second ZOZO, having tied for 66th in 2021.

Ryo Ishikawa - $6,200 (+30000)
Ishikawa tied for fourth here a year ago. He has had many subpar weeks in the past year, including a missed cut at the U.S. Open. But he's also won a Japan Tour event, finished second in another and was eighth last week at the Japan Open. Last year at the Japan Open he was runner-up and the next week had his top-5 at the ZOZO.

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