DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: 3M Open Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

3M OPEN

Purse: $7.8M
Winner's Share: $1.404M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: Blaine, Minn.
Course: TPC Twin Cities
Yardage: 7,431
Par: 71
2022 winner: Tony Finau

Tournament Preview

The four majors are over, and now there are just two tournaments remaining in the regular season. Normally at this time of year, most of the top players are resting up for the playoffs, letting the lesser guys battle it out for playoff spots and Tour cards. This year, under new rules, some things are different.

The top 125 finishers in the FedExCup Standings still get to keep their Tour cards, but now only the top 70 get into the playoffs, which begin with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. After that, the top 50 advance to the BMW Championship and top 30 to the Tour Championship. There are some huge names on the outside of the top 70 looking in.

Which brings us to Justin Thomas.

Tournament organizers are thrilled Thomas is playing this week. Thomas? Not so much. The former No. 1 player in the world who just 14 months ago won his second major is amid a horrible months-long stretch that has seen him tumble outside of the top 20 in the world rankings and into 75th in the standings. Things came to an ugly head for Thomas at the Open Championship last week, when he shot an opening-round 82 and missed the cut, necessitating a last-minute entry into the 3M. Not only that, on Monday Thomas committed to next week's Wyndham Championship, too. The top 70 is important, but so is being top-50 -- those players automatically qualify for all of next season's designated events.

There will be other ways for Thomas to get into those events even if he doesn't reach the top 50 after the St. Jude. They are being top-30 in the world -- Thomas is currently 24th, performance leading up to the designated events and getting one of the four sponsor's invites. But he surely would like to ensure his entry as soon as possible.

Thomas is fighting to get into the playoffs -- top-70, top-50, top-30 -- but he's also trying to make the upcoming U.S. Ryder Cup team. So not only is Thomas playing poorly, he's under immense pressure to start playing well. That's not a good combination.

Other bold-face names sitting outside the top 70 are Shane Lowry (No. 73), Justin Suh (No. 76), Adam Scott (No. 80), Gary Woodland (No. 90) and Billy Horschel (No. 119) -- okay, some of those are only semi-bold. Suh, Woodland and Horschel are playing this week, but the others are not, and they will presumably will play next week's regular-season finale. Scott has qualified for the playoffs every year since they were instituted. In past years, of course, he needed to be only inside the top 125.

The race to get into the top 125 won't end after the Wyndham, as in years past. That will continue until the end of the fall series, and only then will top-125 players secure their cards for next season.

Others of note in this 156-man field include defending champion Tony Finau (10th in the standings), Sepp Straka (15th), Emiliano Grillo (23rd), Sahith Theegala (32nd), Sungjae Im (35th), Cameron Young (41st) and Hideki Matsuyama (54th).

TPC Twin Cities is not the easiest place to find your game. It ranked as the 14th-hardest course on Tour last season and has led the Tour in water balls ever since becoming a tournament in 2019. That's right, more water balls than even TPC Sawgrass. After all, we're in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. All 10,000 of them are not on this course; it only seems that way. There are 27 water hazards affecting 15 holes. Last year, golfers sent 303 balls into the wet stuff. That was ahead of the Honda, which saw 289 at PGA National, and THE PLAYERS, which saw 272 at TPC Sawgrass. There were 95 double bogeys at TPC Twin Cities last year, plus 43 triples or worse. One bad hole could wreck a whole week of fine play.

In the inaugural 3M Open in 2019, it was a birdie-fest. Matthew Wolff won at 21-under. That's not unusual for a new tournament, as the Tour doesn't want to make things too hard too fast, thereby keeping bigger-name golfers away. Michael Thompson won at 19-under in 2020 and Cameron Champ at 15-under in 2021. While there was a slight uptick last year with Finau emerging at 17-under, he was three clear of co-runners-up Im and Emiliano Grillo.

TPC Twin Cities opened in 2000, an Arnold Palmer design with an assist from Minnesotan Tom Lehman, who further assisted with a renovation four years ago in an effort to toughen the track for the regular Tour golfers. Lehman received a sponsor's invite the first two years. His son, 25-year-old Thomas Lehman, received one this year.

Even though the course is very long (nearly 7,500 yards for a par 71) and has all that water, the wind needs to be blowing to really thwart the golfers. The fairways are very wide -- more than 30 yards at the 300-, 325-, and 350-yard checkpoints. That lets the golfers fire at the bigger-than-average, 6,500-square-foot bentgrass greens that will run about 12 on the Stimpmeter. Interestingly, besides all those double and triple bogeys we told you about, there are also a lot of birdies. There are some super long holes: All three par-5s are 590+ yards, there are two par-4s more than 500 and three of the four par-3s are at least 200. There are 72 bunkers.

The 18th hole is a 596-yard par-5, and today's golfers usually eat those up. Not this one. It is a beast. With water guarding the front of the green, it played over par last year, virtually unheard of for a par-5. It is one of the hardest par-5s on the entire Tour. Other treacherous spot for the golfers include the 468-yard 2nd hole, which was the sixth-hardest hole on the entire PGA Tour last season, followed by the 501-yard 3rd; the 502-yard 9th; and the closing two holes beginning with the 202-yard 17th. With both 9 and 18 being brutes, it doesn't matter where you start your round -- you're guaranteed to face a rugged finishing hole. Two years ago, Dustin Johnson came to 18 needing a birdie to make the cut, found water and went home.

As for the weather, the golfers were greeted with mid-90s temperatures at the beginning of the week -- quite a change for those coming from rainy England -- but will moderate into the mid-80s on the weekend. Otherwise, there's not forecast to be much rain, if any, and winds will be in the low double digits.

3M Open notes: The PGA Tour returned to Minnesota in 2019 after a half-century absence. There had been a lot of big-time golf there in the interim, including the 2016 Ryder Cup at Hazeltine, which has also played host to U.S. Opens, PGA Championships, the 2019 Women's PGA Championship and nearly two decades' worth of a PGA Tour Champions stops. But as for the PGA Tour, there had been nothing since the Minnesota Golf Classic in 1969. As you'll recall, Frank Beard came away with the title, ending the tournament's nearly four-decade run dating to 1930. ... Last year, former pro tennis star Mardy Fish got a sponsor invite. The now 41-year-old Minnesota native is an excellent golfer who won the big celebrity tournament at Lake Tahoe in 2020 and just finished second to Steph Curry this year. He missed the cut by 12 strokes. Of course, there was precedent for athletes in other sports getting in on sponsor invites. Tony Romo played in a few PGA Tour events and Curry was in a Korn Ferry event.

Key Stats to Winning at TPC Twin Cities

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Distance but also Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards (five holes)
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2022 - Tony Finau
2021 - Cameron Champ
2020 - Michael Thompson
2019 - Matthew Wolff

Champion's Profile

Here's a good suggestion if you want to win the 3M Open. Make a lot of putts but not a lot of bogeys. Gee, why don't more golfers try that approach? A lot of birdies will be made -- there have been a bunch of 63s and even 62s in the first four editions, though fewer last year -- but so will double and triple bogeys. That's why we list bogey avoidance as a key stat. Last year, Finau took a little off the gas, ranking 16th in driving distance. It helped him rank sixth in fairways hit and third in greens in regulation. He ranked only 42nd in SG: Putting, but he was good everywhere else he was able to hold off some great putters. Seven of the top-15 on the leaderboard ranked in the top-10 in putting. Sungjae Im, who shared runner-up three strokes behind Finau, was almost identical to him in driving distance and fairways hit -- but he missed seven more greens. The year before, even Champ dialed it back a bit, ranking only eighth in the field in driving distance. He had perhaps the best putting week of his life, and he led the field. That's a great way to avoid bogeys. On the weekend, Champ incredibly had only one over-par hole, a double bogey on 14 on Saturday. Wolff is a very long hitter, but Thompson is nothing of the sort. As always, there is more than one way to win this tournament. The over/under on the winning score on golfodds.com is 266.5, which is 17.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

Tier 1 Values

Tony Finau - $10,600 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1600)
Finau likely is in a more precarious position than Thomas -- not for the playoffs, but for the Ryder Cup team. How can someone who has won twice this season and sits top-10 in the standings be in trouble? Finau's success this season was heavily front-loaded back to the fall. Yes, he won in Mexico in June but since then doesn't have a top-20 in seven starts, with three missed cuts, including last week's Open Championship. If history holds, he will get well this week. Not only is Finau the defending champion, he was third here in 2020 and top-25 the year before.

Hideki Matsuyama - $10,000 (+1600) 
Matsuyama has not had the best year and had fallen outside the top-30 in the world for a bit. He tied for 13th last week at the Open, a great sign, and was also T13 a few weeks back at the Travelers. He ranks seventh in our model this week, and was held back by driving distance and putting. But Matsuyama ranks first in this field over the past 24 rounds in both Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and bogey avoidance. With those stats, we'll take our chances on his putter.

Emiliano Grillo - $9,700 (+2500) 
The big question for Grillo is not whether he's playing well -- he is -- or whether he has played well at TPC Twin Cities -- he has. It's whether he can regroup so quickly after one of the biggest weeks of his golfing life. Grillo was part of a four-way tie for second at the Open Championship, by far his best showing in a major. Other than that, all systems are go for a golfer who was runner-up to Finau here last year and third three years ago.

Sepp Straka - $9,500 (+2500) 
Straka's last two starts have resulted in a win (at the John Deere) and a runner-up (at the Open Championship). In some ways, this price is a steal. But like with Grillo, how fast can he get his feet back on the ground? Because otherwise, Straka is No. 1 in our model -- second in the field over the past 24 rounds in bogey avoidance, plus top-25 in SG: Approach, Tee-to-Green and Putting.

Tier 2 Values

Justin Thomas - $9,300 (+2500) 
Oooh, boy. Yes, we're going here. There are so many reasons not to take Thomas, who has never played this tournament before. He missed the cut in four of his past six starts, including both Opens. He does have a tie for ninth at the Travelers mixed in. He lands at 60th in our model, which is inside the cut line but not much else. Thomas also is ranked 17th in this field in SG: Approach over his past 24 rounds and 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green. So what we're saying is, there's a chance.

Cam Davis - $9,000 (+3000) 
Davis did not play in the Open Championship last week -- he was the first alternate at a tournament in which no one pulled out. So he should be fired up. But also, he didn't play in the Open for a reason -- he didn't qualify. This has been a mixed season for Davis. He's missed the cut in half of his 23 starts. Yet he also was sixth at THE PLAYERS and fourth at the PGA. Davis has top-16s twice in this tournament. He is a pick because his upside this week is large. The chances of that happening are not the best.

Adam Hadwin - $8,900 (+3500) 
Hadwin is almost a perfect fit for this golf course. If he were longer off tee, he'd be No. 1 in our model. As it is, he's third. He gets the ball in the fairway, gets it on the green, makes putts, avoids bogeys. Hadwin also has two top-6s in the four-year history of this event.

J.T. Poston - $8,400 (+4500) 
Poston tied for 11th here last year. So there's that. He's also playing quite well over the past month -- T6 at the John Deere, which isn't that big of a deal, then T6 again at the Scottish Open, and that is a big deal. And Poston made the cut last week at Hoylake. He ranks top-15 in this field over his past 24 rounds in three of our key stats: SG: Putting, par-4 450-500 efficiency and bogey avoidance.

Tier 3 Values 

Aaron Rai - $7,900 (+4000) 
Rai is such a steady player, a fairways and greens guy. Not much of a putting guy, but a little better lately. He is ranked fifth on Tour in driving accuracy and 13th in greens in regulation. The Englishman is on a nice roll, too: T3 at the Canadian Open, T24 at the Travelers and T9 at the Rocket Mortgage before an MC last time out at the Scottish Open.

Eric Cole - $7,800 (+4500) 
Cole has made six straight cuts and eight of his past nine. He's made the cut at THE PLAYERS, the PGA and the U.S. Open. He's a very steady player, one who ranks in the top-10 in this field over his past 24 rounds in both putting and bogey avoidance. Cole is new to TPC Twin Cities, but that's been the case at most courses for him this season.

Austin Eckroat - $7,500 (+4500) 
Eckroat is a great driver of the golf ball, longer than average and among the most accurate. He's a great tee-to-green guy, a conservative player who is among the best at avoiding bogeys. And he's a pretty good putter. Really, the whole package has developed in his breakthrough season on Tour. Eckroat has played this tournament once before, tying for 16th two years ago.

Chez Reavie - $7,300 (+9000)
Reavie has shown time and again that he can compete on some longer tracks. Like here two years ago, when he tied for 11th (he was 49th last year). The veteran has made eight straight cuts on Tour and 12 of his past 13. Reavie ranks top-10 in this field over his past 24 rounds in SG: Approach and top-20 in SG: Putting.

Long-Shot Values

Andrew Novak - $6,900 (+13000) 
Novak has missed only five cuts all year while sprinkling in the occasional good finish -- 12th at the Sony and ninth at both the Valero and Canadian Open. He's ranked top-50 on Tour in SG: Putting. Novak tied for 54th here a year ago.

Justin Lower - $6,900 (+20000) 
Lower ranked No. 1 in our model among all the $6000s (yeah, we were surprised, too). He had a really rough stretch early in 2023 in which he missed seven of eight cuts. Since then, only four of 11. He was top-25 in Canada and top-10 at the Rocket Mortgage. Lower ranks fifth in the field over his past 24 rounds in both SG: Putting and bogey avoidance. Making puttsis a great way to avoid bogeys.

Adam Long - $6,800 (+15000) 
Long has not been playing well this year, but it's hard to ignore his success on this course: runner-up in 2020, T25 in 2021 and T16 last year. What does Long do well? He will get the ball in the fairway and he will make putts. That gives him a fighting chance to make the cut this week.

Cameron Percy - $6,400 (+40000) 
Percy has managed to make the cut here the past two years, just missing a top-25 a year ago with a T26. The veteran Aussie is a conservative player who finished T12 at the Honda earlier this year -- PGA National had the second-most water balls last season behind TPC Twin Cities. Percy is among the shortest hitters on Tour, but he's ranked a respectable 75th in SG: Off-the-Tee. And 79th in SG: Putting.

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