Betting on Golf: Arnold Palmer Invitational

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Published on March 1, 2022

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads up to Orlando for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club and Lodge, the final event before the lucrative PLAYERS Championship.

Tournament favorite Jon Rahm, at 15-2 odds, headlines the field for an event that includes four of the top 10 players in the Official World Golf Ranking. Last year, champion Bryson DeChambeau -- who withdrew Monday with a wrist injury -- outlasted Lee Westwood by one stroke for his eighth PGA Tour victory.

Bay Hill plays as a traditional par-72 at approximately 7,450 yards, making it one of the longer courses on Tour. Water comes into play on just under half the holes, and the length of the course puts a premium on both distance and accuracy with the driver. It's traditionally one of the tougher courses on Tour, with the winner finishing better than 12-under-par just once over the last five years.

I'll be looking for players who play well from tee to green -- the winner finished top-10 in that department three of the past four years -- as well as those that approach it well from 200+ yards, as that will come in handy on the four lengthy par-3s and also allow them to take advantage of the par-5s.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 4:00 PM ET Tuesday.

The Best at Bay Hill

The following golfers, with a minimum of three appearances, have the lowest scoring average at Bay Hill since 2017.

You know it's a tough course when not a single player on the list that averages anything below 70, and that's saying something considering the 2018 champion McIlroy has recorded five straight top-10s at this event. He has made the cut in all seven of his appearances here, and those results certainly have the attention of the oddsmakers, who have priced him as the second choice at 10-1. McIlroy has played a light schedule this season, with just a pair of PGA Tour starts, which resulted in a win at The CJ Cup and a T10 at Riviera. Im is another player who has fared well on this track, with two third-place results. He has enjoyed playing in the Sunshine State, tallying a win and another top-5 in Florida. He ranks eights in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green this season and has already recorded three top-15s in 2022. He should be considered a strong contender at 22-1 odds.

True to Form

These five players, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last five tournaments.

World No. 1 Rahm continues to deliver in all aspects of the game. Even in a "down" week at Riviera, he finished T21 and ranked top-12 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and approach. The big question for Rahm will be how he fits the course, as he will be making his first start at Bay Hill. However, pretty much seems to have fit his eye the past few months. Much farther down the betting board is Munoz, who checks in at 100-1. Despite being normally steady on the greens, he ranks 197th in SG: Putting this season. Nevertheless, he has still recorded a pair of top-5 finishes and three consecutive top-40 results. Munoz has excelled with approaches from 200 yards and out this year, which will come in handy this week. He is a live long shot and a great low-cost option in daily fantasy sports contests.

Outright Picks

Hideki Matsuyama (25-1)

All Matsuyama seems to do lately is win, or at least find himself in contention. He has won three times since last April, including twice in his last six starts, and he was also in the mix in Phoenix. Matsuyama has made the cut in all seven of his appearances at Bay Hill and has a best finish of T6. He also ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2019. These odds are rather long for someone who should be in the hunt with a reasonable putting performance.

Adam Scott (35-1)

Scott struggled to find his form for about a year after things shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but he re-emerged last summer with a runner-up finish at the Wyndham Championship and was in contention at Riviera a couple weeks ago before settling for a share for fourth. Nevertheless, he still finds himself outside the top 10 selections, and with a third-place finish in this tournament previously, the value is too good to pass up.

Cameron Tringale (65-1)

Maybe I'm foolish for falling into the Tringale trap, but if he continues to put himself in contention, one would think he will eventually get it done. Over his last eight events he posted three top-10s, and he is coming off a T13 finish -- all amid strong fields. Tringale is 24th in SG: Total this season and has made his last four cuts at Bay Hill.

Top-10 Picks

Lanto Griffin (11-2)

Griffin doesn't seem to get the attention he deserves, as he's a bit of a late bloomer who picked up his first win in his 30s. He doesn't jump off the page in any facet of the game but is gaining shots in each strokes-gained category this season. He's also shown well at Bay Hill, finishing T36 in his first appearance and T21 last year.

Keegan Bradley (8-1)

Bradley is another player who is striking the ball well but is being held back by his putter, as he ranks a measly 187th in SG: Putting this season. He's one of the better values on the board, having made the cut here in nine straight appearances and posting a pair of top-3 finishes. He was just two back heading into the final round last year.

Pat Perez (12-1)

The 45-year-old is having a bit of a resurgence with a pair of top-10 finishes to start 2022. His only weakness at this point is distance off the tee, and while that isn't ideal this week, the rest of his game and his intriguing odds more than masks that. Perez has one career top-5 at Bay Hill.

Head-to-Head Matchups

Sam Burns (+100) over Keith Mitchell

After going 2-0 in this section last week, I'll look to keep the momentum going with Burns, who is a surprising underdog. I know Mitchell is playing some of the best golf of his career, but I think the odds in this matchup are based too much on recent form, and Mitchell could be due for a letdown playing for the fifth time in six weeks. Burns simply does everything a little bit better than Mitchell and I'll take the value.

Jason Kokrak (-120) over Christiaan Bezuidenhout

I know Kokrak hasn't exactly been on his A game, but Bay Hill is a place where he brings it. He has recorded three straight top-20 finishes, led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green in 2019 and wound up fourth in that category last year. Don't be fooled by Bezuidenhout's top-10 finish here last year -- he struggled with his ball striking but was saved by gaining over 10 shots on and around the greens across his four rounds.