Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview: Koepka's a Contender

The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week as next up is Arnie's event at Bay Hill. Unfortunately, we've lost Tiger Woods for the week as he pulled out  Monday with a sore neck. But unlike last week, we have plenty of firepower in the field.

Outside of a bizarre two-year stretch where Matt Every claimed victory in back-to-back fashion, the Palmer will generally have some big names in the mix come late Sunday afternoon. With many of the best golfers in the world in good form, I expect nothing less than a big name to win this week.

This week: Arnold Palmer Invitational - Bay Hill, Orlando, Fla.

Last Year: Rory McIlroy shot a final-round 64 on his way to a three-stroke victory over Bryson DeChambeau.

FAVORITES

Rory McIlroy (7-1) 

McIlroy has been among the top of the odds chart nearly every week, and though he's come close several times, he has yet to win. That might change this week as he was the only golfer pushing Dustin Johnson in Mexico a couple weeks back, and his track record here is stellar. In addition to his win here last year, he posted a T4 the year prior and a T11 in his first start at this event. In his four starts at this event, he finished no worse than T27.

Brooks Koepka (10-1) 

Is there a more reliable golfer on the planet when in contention? While others crack or lose focus down the stretch, Koepka seems to hyper-focus on the task at hand. The question with Koepka will always be whether he is mentally committed from the get-go. He was last week, and considering the strength of this field, I have to imagine that he'll be amped for this week. His track record here is the only hangup as he's never really had success in three starts. Then again, he's only played here once in the last three years, and we all know how much he's improved during that span.

Justin Rose (11-1) 

Rose is back after a somewhat lengthy layoff, and while we have no idea about his form now, we do know that he's certainly refreshed after getting away from the PGA Tour for several weeks. Rose picked a good time to make his return as his track record here is  impressive. Rose stumbled initially at this event, but he's figured it out in recent years, to the tune of three top-3s and an additional three top-15s in his last seven starts here.

MID-TIER GOLFERS

Rickie Fowler (12-1) 

If not for all the talent at the top of this field, Fowler would surely be among the top-three favorites, but as it is, he's just outside the chalk. Fowler, however, is just as likely as anyone to win this week. Fowler has a win and a runner-up in this last three starts on the PGA Tour and his track record at this event isn't too shabby. Although he has only one top-10 at this event, he has posted top-15s in his last two starts here and might be playing the best golf of his life entering this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (18-1) 

DeChambeau has a limited track record at this event, only two starts, but he finished runner-up in one of those starts. DeChambeau hasn't played his best on the PGA Tour this season, but he does have a win overseas and it's just a matter of time before he gets another win stateside. The nice thing about backing DeChambeau is that if he starts well, he's generally in it for the long haul. He's not the type to start slow and backdoor a top-10. You know fairly early if he's locked in.

Marc Leishman (25-1) 

Leishman has been hit or miss at this event, but when he's "on," he's generally in the mix. He was "on" two years ago when he took home the title and last year when he posted a T7. Leishman's winning score in 2017 was just 11-under par, which was the highest winning score in the last six years, which would indicate that if the conditions are tough – you know, if the wind is blowing – then Leishman gets an upgrade.

LONGSHOTS

Keegan Bradley (66-1) 

When Bradley was at his peak, he played pretty well at this event. Bradley posted top-3s in 2013 and 2014, but as his overall game faded, so did his performance at Bay Hill. While Bradley hasn't yet reached the heights of his first string of successes on the PGA Tour, he has shown some of that form the last six months. He's coming off a top-10 in Mexico in his most recent start, and if he's on the way up, he could contend this week.

Michael Thompson (80-1) 

The end of this unexpected streak of top-20s could come at any time, but Thompson didn't show any signs of slowing down last week at the Honda. Although he struggled toward the finish, he was, for a moment, within striking distance of the lead on Sunday afternoon. He's only played this event once, but he's on a roll.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Highly Owned Pick:  Rory McIlroy - From what I've seen this season, not many have taken the plunge with McIlroy yet and his appeal at the majors isn't what it used to be, which means he'll likely be the top pick this week. This does look like the best spot to use him, though, as he's in good form and is the defending champ. There are good options for those looking to make up ground, however.

Moderately Owned Pick: Marc Leishman - DeChambeau doesn't have enough history here and both Rose and Koepka are better served for the majors, which leaves Leishman as popular target this week. If the forecast calls for wind, Leishman holds a lot of value. If conditions are optimal, then you might be better served by looking elsewhere.

Lightly Owned Pick: Keegan Bradley - That top-10 in Mexico will put Bradley back on the radar of many, but with so many high-end golfers in the field this week, Bradley should still be lightly owned. Bradley will have a tough time getting on top of this field, but it's possible. A top-10 would be a more likely target, though, with top-5 potential as well.

Buyer Beware: Henrik Stenson - I spotted this courtesy of an @WillGrayGC tweet while writing this ... Stenson, in four starts this season world-wide, has three MCs and a T54 in Mexico where there was no cut and only 71 players in the field. He does, however, have a stellar track record at this event. I generally side with the track record over recent form, but Stenson's game appears to be too far off  to take him this week.

Last week: Michael Thompson (T16) - $105,400; Season - $3,083,014

This week: Rory McIlroy - I'm not in a great spot in any of my OAD pools, which means I need to make up ground. That made passing on Bradley all the more difficult, because I really wanted to use him in this spot, but McIlroy is just too enticing this week. He's been a top-5 machine this season and he would have one win already if not for an insane effort from DJ in Mexico. I think he gets that win this week.

FANDUEL PICKS

High/Mid/Low: Rory McIlroy ($12,200)/Lucas Glover ($10,000)/Charley Hoffman ($8,900)

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Gary Woodland - (T36); Streak - 7

This week: Rory McIlroy - While I've used a lot of big names in the OAD format this season, that's not the case for the survivor format. With my streak nearing double-digits, there's no reason to fool around this week. McIlroy has come close to missing the cut here, but he's too locked in now to flirt with the cut line this week.