Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview: Stenson Still Strong

It's never easy to win on the PGA Tour, especially when you've never done so, but Adam Hadwin was seemingly proving us all wrong last week at the Valspar Classic ... until he wasn't. Credit to Hadwin, he had most of us fooled as he eased around the course with a four-stroke lead for most of the weekend, but as most would be first-timers do, he simply cracked.

He held onto the impression that everything was under control for a lot longer than we are used to, but this damn game gets almost everyone in the end. Unlike other major sports where the time an athlete has to think about his or her next move is measured in fractions of a second, golf offers its athletes hours of time to think -- time to think about the next shot, time to think about what could go wrong, time to think about what score is needed to win, time to think about things that have nothing to do with the task at hand, there's an endless amount of thoughts that can go through a golfer's mind in the middle of a round.

Unfortunately, when things are going well, most people let negative thoughts creep in and professional golfers are not immune from this. The ability to stay positive or at minimum, refrain from negativity is what separates the good from the great. It's what made Tiger a legend and what makes Dustin Johnson the best player on the planet. While some of these guys can make it look easy, a glimpse into the mind of a golfer in the lead would reveal it rarely is.

This week: Arnold Palmer Invitational - Bay Hill, Orlando, Fla.

Last Year: Jason Day shot a final-round 70 on his way to a one-stroke victory over Kevin Chappell.

PLAYERS TO CONSIDER

Henrik Stenson

Stenson was the top pick last week and remains the top pick for this event, as well. His track record at Bay Hill is even better than it was at the Valspar Classic and unlike last week, he comes into this week off a good showing. Stenson's form is solid, and with top-10s in his four most recent starts here, his track record is as good as anyone's in the field.

Francesco Molinari

Molinari looked like a decent option two weeks ago at the WGC-Mexico Championship, and although he didn't make a huge splash, he did end up with a respectable top-20 finish. Fast forward two weeks and Molinari again looks like a good option at the Palmer. Molinari has played this event four times and his worst finish was a T34 in 2013. His best was a T5 in 2014 and his other two starts resulted in top-20s.

Wesley Bryan

Stop me if you've heard this, "it's always risky taking a first-timer." I wrote that last week, and Bryan again proved that course history isn't necessary to play well. For those counting at home, that's three consecutive top-10s on the PGA Tour, most, if not all, as a first-timer. Bryan's task will be a little more difficult this week as there is more firepower in the field this week, but I think he's up to the task.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy has only played this event twice, and his results are not what you'd expect from McIlroy, but I have a feeling he's starting to get a little perturbed about all the DJ talk lately. McIlroy always seems to be the odd man out when we talk about the best golfer in the world, but he looked determined a couple weeks ago in Mexico, and although he didn't win, he showed some good form. With DJ not in the field this week, McIlroy might make his claim as best in the world.

Matt Every

It's rare that a two-time winner can be called a sleeper, but Every's play outside this event the last couple years has relegated him to a sleeper-level. Proceed with caution, though, as Every has yet to make a cut this season. The thought of course, is that a return to the course where he's won two of the last three years will kickstart his season.

PLAYERS TO AVOID

Adam Hadwin

One could argue that even though he won last week, Hadwin's form is not great because of the meltdown he had late in the round Sunday. Whatever the case, it's difficult to come back the week after a breakthrough win and play well. Hadwin likely will still be thinking about the Valspar when he tees off this week at the Palmer.

Webb Simpson

Simpson looked like the Simpson of old a month ago when he nearly won the Phoenix Open, but he's been unable to sustain that momentum and it looks like he's falling back to the form that we've seen the last couple years. It's unlikely that he'll snap out of his funk this week as his track record at Bay Hill is less than stellar.

Bubba Watson

I mentioned last week that we were three months into the season and Watson had yet to make the cut, well, nothing has changed entering this week. Watson again missed the cut last week at the Valspar and his prospects don't look good this week either. Watson has made only five cuts in nine starts at this event.

Russell Henley

Henley is off to a good start this season and his from is solid, but he's up against it this week as his track record at Bay Hill is awful. In four starts at this event, Henley has missed the cut three times and the one time he made the cut he managed only a T49.

Grayson Murray

Murray caught a lot of attention when he posted a top-10 in his second start as a member of the PGA Tour, and although he carried some of that momentum into this calendar year, he's recently hit a rut and it doesn't look like he'll pull out of it anytime soon. Murray enters this week on a streak of three consecutive missed cuts on the PGA Tour.

ONE AND DONE GOLFER

Last week: Justin Thomas (MC) - $0; Season - $3,171,324

This week: Henrik Stenson - Stenson was my top pick last week, but I thought Justin Thomas had better value. That didn't exactly work out in my favor, but on the bright side, I have Stenson available this week. While Stenson has value down the road, it may never be higher than it is this week, where he has a great track record.

YAHOO PICKS

Points: 1,402
Rank: 22,379

This Week:

Group A: Rory McIlroy, Jason Day

Group B: Hideki Matsuyama, Francesco Molinari, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker

Group C: Henrik Stenson, Wesley Bryan

SURVIVOR PICK

Last week: Jason Dufner - (T11); Streak - 1

This week: Henrik Stenson - Again, Stenson holds plenty of value down the road, possibly more in a survivor format, but he's a perfect 8-for-8 in cuts made at this event and as anyone who's ever played a survivor pool will tell you -- survive and advance, don't get too far ahead of yourself. Take the safe pick this week, which is Stenson.