TOUR Championship Betting Preview
The final event of the FedExCup Playoffs kicks off Thursday as the remaining 30 golfers head to East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, Georgia, for the annual TOUR Championship. Unlike the last six years, all players will start at even-par as starting strokes were removed and the winner of the event will be crowned the FedExCup Champion. Once again, last week's winner Scottie Scheffler is the overwhelming favorite at 3-2 odds, well ahead of Rory McIlroy at 17-2. Last year, Collin Morikawa posted the lowest gross score (22-under), while Scheffler won the FedExCup.
East Lake will look slightly different this year as it will play as a par-70 with the 14th hole being shortened to 530 yards and converted from a par-5 to a par-4. The rough is also being brought up an inch and that will put an even bigger emphasis on accuracy off the tee than there already was. I think we can assume the goal here is to make the course more difficult with the starting strokes element removed to try to favor the top players, and I think we're looking at a winning score around 15-under this year. Water is in play on about half of the holes and narrow fairways tend to make the best players rise to the top at East Lake. All four par-3s play over 200 yards, so I'll be targeting good long iron players this week. Overall, accurate drivers, good iron players, players that rank well in bogey avoidance and those that have shown good ball striking recently are the players I'm eyeing.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 1:00 PM ET Wednesday.
East Lake Elite
The following players have the lowest scoring average at East Lake since 2020:
- Justin Thomas: 67.1
- Viktor Hovland: 67.4
- Russell Henley: 67.6
- Rory McIlroy: 67.8
- Scottie Scheffler: 68.0
Although a victory has alluded Thomas here, he does have a pair of runner-ups and his consistency has been impressive as the veteran has shot under-par in 14 consecutive rounds. The downside is that his results have tailed off this summer, where he has just one top-20 over his last eight events. Thomas is tied for the sixth betting choice at 25-1 odds. Just above him on the betting board is Henley at 20-1, who has shown good form in what is basically a hometown event for the Georgia native. He's ranked in the top-5 in SG: Tee-to-Green at the event in back-to-back years and is currently in the midst of a six-event top-20 streak. Henley's precision off the tee makes him well suited for East Lake.
Approach Artists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.57
- Viktor Hovland: 1.37
- Hideki Matsuyama: 1.15
- Akshay Bhatia: 0.99
- J.J. Spaun: 0.95
The oddsmakers are giving Scheffler close to a 40 percent chance of winning the event, and with five wins in his last 10 events in bigger fields, some would argue that's not high enough. The only downside I can come up with is that he hasn't posted the lowest gross score at the event in five appearances. Still, fade him at your own risk. The other golfer to appear on both lists is Hovland, who is coming off a T7 result at Caves Valley in which he ranked second in SG: Approach. The 2023 event champion has shown an ability to go low at East Lake, carding five rounds of 66 or better over the last two years. As tied for the ninth choice at 28-1 odds, he feels undervalued in this small field.
TOUR Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)
How crazy would it be for Fleetwood's first win to come at the TOUR Championship? I know people don't like betting on him as he's burned his backers so many times, but he continues to knock on the door. Fleetwood ranked third in SG: Tee-to-Green last week.
Cameron Young (30-1)
Following a poor opening round, Young played the final 54-holes at the BMW Championship in nine-under – only two shots worse than Scheffler. He's one of the hottest players in this field and often finds himself in contention when he's in form.
TOUR Championship Bets: Top-5 Wager
Justin Rose (11-2)
Rose hasn't qualified for the playoff finale since 2019, but he's historically played quite well here with two runner-ups and four top-5s over his last seven appearances. Not bad odds for a guy with that course history that also won two weeks ago.
TOUR Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchup
Chris Gotterup (+100) over Harris English
I'll take a chance on Gotterup as the underdog here as he may need a top-5 showing to warrant a Ryder Cup selection. He's underperformed the first two playoff events, but he's still driving the ball well while the short game has surprisingly let him down. Meanwhile, English's 69.8 scoring average at East Lake across 12 career rounds is mediocre, and he's lost strokes off the tee in all three of his appearances.
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