FedEx St. Jude Championship Betting Preview
The start of the three-week FedExCup Playoffs is upon as the top-70 golfers in the season-long standings have qualified for the first event – the FedEx St. Jude Championship at TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee. Rory McIlroy is the lone eligible player electing to skip the no-cut event in which the top-50 players in the FedExCup Standings will advance to next week's BMW Championship. Scottie Scheffler headlines as the overwhelming favorite (+280) and the only player with odds under 18-1. Last year, Hideki Matsuyama (30-1 odds) picked up his second victory of the season by two strokes over Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:30 AM ET Wednesday.
Course Overview
Par 70, 7,288 yards
These are the average rankings of the champions at TPC Southwind since 2020:
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 19.2
- SG: Approach: 5.4
- SG: Around-the-Green: 25.4
- SG: Putting: 20.6
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.8
- Driving Distance: 37.6
- Driving Accuracy: 19.8
A return to Memphis brings some slight changes as the course went through a renovation following last year's event with the notable difference being all new green complexes. New greens tend to be firm and that should put an extra emphasis on iron play. One of the things that won't be new is the weather as once again we have temperatures forecasted in the 90s every day with minimal wind. Off the tee, players are faced with doglegs on the majority of holes and tree-lined fairways that average a narrow 27 yards wide in addition to water in play at times, so there's a premium on accuracy over distance as evidenced in the metrics above. We can see that iron play tends to be a key statistic and that should be the case even more so this year with the changes, with a lot of approach shots coming in the 125-175 yard range. In addition to accurate drivers and good approach players, I'll also be looking towards players that rank well in bogey avoidance with all the trouble that lurks around here.
Southwind Superstars
The following players have the lowest scoring average at TPC Southwind over the last five years:
- Hideki Matsuyama: 67.0
- Daniel Berger: 67.0
- Sam Burns: 67.6
- Scottie Scheffler: 67.9
- Lucas Glover: 68.0
- Justin Thomas: 68.0
We have two players tied at the top, although Matsuyama's profile has a little more weight to it considering he's played here four times since 2020 compared to Berger's two trips. Who would've thought that the defending champion would still be searching for his first top-10 since winning in Hawaii to begin the year? Matsuyama's driving play has been the main detriment (127th in SG: Off-the-Tee) as he looks to right the ship at a preferred venue. Another past champion on the list is Glover (80-1), who finished T3 here in 2022 and then won in back-to-back weeks two years ago before missing the playoffs last year. The veteran is enjoying a much improved campaign with five top-10s, including two over his last four tournaments.
Iron Play Specialists
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes on approach across their last 20 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler: 1.64
- Hideki Matsuyama: 1.26
- Viktor Hovland: 1.23
- Kurt Kitayama: 0.98
- Shane Lowry: 0.98
The top two players on this list appear on both lists showing the importance of iron play around TPC Southwind. Scheffler leads by a considerable margin and like many of the top players will be making his first start since The Open Championship. His top-10 streak has now reached 11 tournaments with four wins during that stretch. Scheffler has never won here, however, most recently finishing solo fourth last year. Meanwhile, Kitayama's victory two weeks ago propelled him into the playoffs, and he stands out in numerous statistical categories this year: 11th in SG: Off-the-Tee, eighth in driving distance and fourth in birdie or better percentage. He's underwhelmed in two appearances at the venue, however, and thus has generous odds of 55-1.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Tommy Fleetwood (22-1)
We saw Cameron Young get the monkey off his back with his first win Sunday. Can Fleetwood make it two weeks in a row? I think so. He finished one shot out of a playoff here two years ago and was T4 in 2019. Fleetwood also led the field in SG: Tee-to-Green at the event last year.
Matt Fitzpatrick (28-1)
It's not easy to find many golfers hotter than Fitzpatrick right now. Four months ago he looked lost but now he looks like the 2022 version of himself. He's posted four straight top-10s and has finished T6 or better in 3-of-6 trips to the venue. Fitzpatrick looks ready to win again soon.
Russell Henley (30-1)
I'm going with three players in a similar price range as I don't think we're going to see a surprise winner. Henley has a solid track record in Memphis with a pair of top-10s, including a T6 two years ago. He's shot 68 or better at the difficult venue in seven of his last eight rounds and has four consecutive top-10s.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Placement Wagers
Ludvig Aberg
Top-5 Finish: 9-2
Aberg ranks 12th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season and has gained over a stroke per round with his ball striking in six straight tournaments. That should suit him well at TPC Southwind. The elite results haven't been there lately but it's only a matter of time if the short game cooperates.
Aldrich Potgieter
Top-10 Finish: 9-1
Potgieter took a couple weeks off following a busy stretch, and I expect the time off is what he needed to right the ship. He's the longest driver in the field and has made good strides with his iron play. Maybe not the ideal course fit, but neither was Young at Sedgefield and length is always an advantage.
Taylor Pendrith
Top-5 Finish: 11-1
Continuing the theme with another quality ball-striker, Pendrith has a pair of top-5s in full field events this year (one in a major), so he's clearly capable of this type of result. He was a respectable T22 here last year.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Chris Gotterup (+100) over Corey Conners
The hottest golfer on the planet as an underdog? Yes, please! Gotterup's length has him seventh in SG: Off-the-Tee this year and he's combined that with excellent putting to go on a tear this summer. Conners only has one top-25 in eight trips to the venue and has had a mediocre summer with a best result of T10 since The Masters.
Robert MacIntyre (+100) over Sepp Straka
I'm going with another player at even money in MacIntyre, who bested his T15 finish here in 2021 with a top-10 last year after missing the event the previous two years. He just checks a lot of boxes over Straka: course history, distance, short game and is 3-1 H2H the last four tournaments they've both played in. Since Straka's playoff loss here in 2022, he's finished in the bottom-10 in back-to-back years.
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