This article is part of our 2020 NFL Breakout Watch series.
Games
Los Angeles Chargers +3.0 (-120) at Baltimore Ravens
Nice number at WynnBet, as the Chargers are +2.5 at most other sportsbooks. It's also a nice spot for the Chargers, who rank third in the league in passing yards and passing attempts, and face a Ravens defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards. On the other side, the Ravens have fared well in the running game (ranking fourth in total rushing yards), which, of course, is where the Chargers are most vulnerable. This seems to indicate that the game might be a back-and-forth affair, but it's certainly preferable to be taking points in these situations (rather than laying them). Also, the Ravens may not capitalize as much on their running game if they're playing from behind, of which there's definitely a good chance. The Ravens are also coming off a short week after playing the Colts on Monday Night (and interesting to note the passing game success of Jonathan Taylor in that game, with Austin Ekeler rating as one of the best pass-catching backs in the league). Mainly, I just think the Chargers are the better team, and I'm happy to be getting a field goal with them. FWIW, I also think the Chargers look good in teasers (perhaps with the Chiefs or Rams).
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110) at Detroit Lions
Back on the Bengals this week, for the same reason I liked them last week — their explosive passing game vs. a vulnerable pass defense. Interestingly, the Lions
Games
Los Angeles Chargers +3.0 (-120) at Baltimore Ravens
Nice number at WynnBet, as the Chargers are +2.5 at most other sportsbooks. It's also a nice spot for the Chargers, who rank third in the league in passing yards and passing attempts, and face a Ravens defense that has allowed the fifth-most passing yards. On the other side, the Ravens have fared well in the running game (ranking fourth in total rushing yards), which, of course, is where the Chargers are most vulnerable. This seems to indicate that the game might be a back-and-forth affair, but it's certainly preferable to be taking points in these situations (rather than laying them). Also, the Ravens may not capitalize as much on their running game if they're playing from behind, of which there's definitely a good chance. The Ravens are also coming off a short week after playing the Colts on Monday Night (and interesting to note the passing game success of Jonathan Taylor in that game, with Austin Ekeler rating as one of the best pass-catching backs in the league). Mainly, I just think the Chargers are the better team, and I'm happy to be getting a field goal with them. FWIW, I also think the Chargers look good in teasers (perhaps with the Chiefs or Rams).
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (-110) at Detroit Lions
Back on the Bengals this week, for the same reason I liked them last week — their explosive passing game vs. a vulnerable pass defense. Interestingly, the Lions have faced the fewest passing attempts in the league, but they are getting absolutely torched through the air, allowing a league-high 10.0 yards per passing attempt. That, of course, plays directly into the hands of the dynamic Burrow/Chase combo, who have been lighting up defenses for long gains all year. It's even possible the Bengals might throw a little more than usual this week, with Samaje Perine on the COVID list this week, and Joe Mixon perhaps still a bit limited with his ankle injury. This looks like a smash spot for the Bengals' passing attack, and I would expect they'll turn in a good performance here vs. one of the league's worst teams.
Cleveland Browns -3.5 (-105) vs. Arizona Cardinals
Fresh off their high-scoring road loss vs. the Chargers last week, the Browns return home to face another team that has major issues vs. the run, which is the Browns' major strength. The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most rushing yards in the league, quite a feat considering they're 5-0 and have spent most of their time playing with a lead. This is due to them allowing 5.4 yards per carry, second most behind the Chargers. The Browns simply ran all over the Chargers last week, and I would expect nothing less in this home spot vs. the Cardinals, even with their top rusher Nick Chubb on the sidelines this week. Kareem Hunt has been the RB6 in fantasy this year, even while playing second fiddle to Chubb on his own team. He should get more than his share of work and figures to be highly successful behind the Browns' upper-tier offensive line (especially with Chandler Jones on the COVID list for Arizona this week). On the other side, the Cardinals have been highly efficient through the air, averaging 9.2 yards per passing attempt (tied for second with the Rams). That said, the Browns defense has done pretty well in that department, allowing only 7.4 yards per attempt. Cleveland also has one of the league's best run defenses. I think the Browns come out on top, and it's even possible the line might get back down to -3.0 by gametime, as I'm sure the unbeaten Cardinals will have their fair share of support (especially with Chubb out).
Dallas Cowboys -3.0 (-115) at New England Patriots
Another nice number from WynnBet, as the Cowboys are painted at -3.5 across the board in Las Vegas. The Cowboys have looked good this year, retaining their explosive offense while dramatically improving their run defense from a year ago. In fact, the Cowboys have allowed the fifth-fewest rushing yards overall (on a league-low 94 rushing attempts allowed). They're still vulverable through the air (allowing the second-most yards overall), but they face a team who struggles in that department, as the Patriots average only 6.7 yards per attempt. With the game down to a field goal, this seems like too short a number for the Cowboys to be laying vs. what appears to be an overmatched Patriots team.
Player Props
Ja'Marr Chase over 75.5 receiving yards (-120)
Ja'Marr Chase anytime touchdown (+110)
As mentioned last week, Chase has excelled in getting open for long gains, as he's caught passes of at least 34 yards in every game this year (50, 42, 34, 44, 70). That slots in perfectly vs. the Lions' league-high yards per attempt allowed. Chase has also scored a touchdown in every game but one, and I wouldn't expect that to end this week. Worth noting, Chase's yardage remain a bit depressed (compared to other top WRs in the league) due to the Bengals' low number of passing attempts, but any spike in volume could really boost his numbers (as seen last week when he finally reached double-digit targets). Something to watch.
