NFL Picks and Props for Week 7
The 2025 National Football League regular season hits Week 7, and for the fourth consecutive Sunday, football begins overseas. The Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville Jaguars kick off at 9:30 a.m. ET at Wembley Stadium in London, United Kingdom.
In Week 6, we definitely hit on Chargers RB Kimani Vidal, while also scoring with Rams RB Kyren Williams, but the rest of the picks did not come through. We'll look to bounce back and get into the black in Week 7. Let's get started!
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New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
On Sunday, we're going to see some ugly weather, particularly in the Midwest. There is a huge weather system moving through the middle of the country over the weekend, and Chicago will experience rain and wind in the late morning and early afternoon hours. The rain is expected to pull out by the first quarter, which is the good news. The bad news is that winds will whip up at 20-25 MPH, with gusts to 35-40 MPH at times. That will seriously hamper the efforts of the passing and kicking games.
We're going to take a handful of props in this, based on the wind. First off, go Under on Bears QB Caleb Williams' passing yardage total. With neutral conditions, the Saints are middle of the road against the pass, allowing just 213.3 yards per game through the air. The Bears are heavily favored to win, and RB D'Andre Swift is coming off a 100-yard game in Washington. Look for Williams to go well Under his passing total.
That being said, Swift is expected to go Over his yardage total on the ground. He has a target of 56.5 rushing yards, and it would be stunning if Swift not only failed to reach that mark, but he did not smash that mark. In fact, if you're on the adventurous side, taking D'ANDRE SWIFT - 80+ RUSHING YARDS (+240) can help you more than double up, and if you think he can hit triple digits again, D'ANDRE SWIFT - 100+ RUSHING YARDS (+550) will help you multiply up by 5 1/2 times!
In addition, go Under on both kickers. Yes, kicker props! Both Blake Grupe of the Saints, and fill-in kicker Jake Moody of the Bears, have targets of 6.5 points. Neither of the coaches are likely to opt for long field goals due to the whipping winds, and they each could elect to go for two, rather than a point-after attempt, should the teams score touchdowns.
Best Prop Pick: Bears QB Caleb Williams - Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Bears RB D'Andre Swift - Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Bears PK Jake Moody - Under 6.5 Points (+105 at BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Saints PK Blake Grupe - Under 6.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
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Miami Dolphins vs Cleveland Browns Prop Plays
We're simply looking to two games in the Midwest for our props this week, rather than going with three or four different games.
In Cleveland, the weather will be awful right around game time if the current forecast holds up. In fact, Huntington Bank Field should have the worst weather of any venue. At 1 p.m. ET, the current forecast calls for an 85 percent chance of precipitation with temperatures falling from around 70 degrees at noon, to 60 degrees by the end of the game. Winds will be whipping off of Lake Erie at 20-25 MPH sustained, with gusts to 30-35 MPH. In fact, there is a gale watch issues by the National Weather Service which warns of gusts up to 45 knots, which equates to roughly 52 MPH!
Like in Chicago, it would behoove the Dolphins and the Browns to rely on a mostly ground-based offensive attack in this AFC battle.
Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel makes his third start. He rushed for five yards against the Minnesota Vikings in London in Week 5 in his first start. He didn't have a rushing attempt in Pitttsburgh last week against the Steelers. In this one, he could be compelled to run a little more than he normally would.
The same holds true for rookie RB Quinshon Judkins. His number is quite high, as the sportsbooks basically expect him to hit triple digits. The Dolphins were torched for 200+ yards by Carolina's Rico Dowdle in Week 5, while mostly unknown Chargers RB Kimani Vidal hits triple digits last week in South Florida. Judkins should be able to get to 95 rushing yards, but go lightly.
And, like in the New Orleans-Chicago game, we'll go low on both of the kickers, as the winds are going to be fierce, making for some ugly attempts, if they're even entrusted with kicking.
Best Prop Pick: Browns QB Dillon Gabriel Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-122 at FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-130 at BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Browns PK Andre Szmyt Under 5.5 Points (+105 at BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins PK Riley Patterson Under 5.5 Points (+105 at BetMGM)
Best Prop Plays - Week 7
- Bears QB Caleb Williams - Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Bears RB D'Andre Swift - Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Bears PK Jake Moody - Under 6.5 Points (+105 at BetMGM)
- Saints PK Blake Grupe - Under 6.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
- Browns QB Dillon Gabriel Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-122 at FanDuel)
- Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-130 at BetMGM)
- Browns PK Andre Szmyt Under 5.5 Points (+105 at BetMGM)
- Dolphins PK Riley Patterson Under 5.5 Points (+105 at BetMGM)
Best Prop Parlays - Week 7
Four-Player Kicker Props Parlay (+3062 at BetMGM)
- Bears PK Jake Moody - Under 6.5 Points (+105)
- Saints PK Blake Grupe - Under 6.5 Points (-110)
- Browns PK Andre Szmyt Under 5.5 Points (+105)
- Dolphins PK Riley Patterson Under 5.5 Points (+105)
Browns Two-Fer Prop Parlay (+236 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Browns QB Dillon Gabriel Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
- Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Over 93.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Best Four-Player Prop Parlay (+890 BetMGM)
- Bears QB Caleb Williams - Under 223.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Bears RB D'Andre Swift - Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Browns QB Dillon Gabriel Over 4.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
- Browns RB Quinshon Judkins Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-130)
