Thursday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Panthers vs. Texans

Thursday night's matchup features teams going in opposite directions. The Panthers, led by star RB Christian McCaffrey and new QB Sam Darnold have been impressive while going 2-0 to begin the season. The Texans were picked by many to be the worst team in the league this year. They've been surprisingly competitive through two weeks, but after losing Tyrod Taylor to injury on Sunday, the immediate future looks bleak. Third-round rookie Davis Mills will make his first NFL start. Consequently, Carolina is an eight-point road favorite in a game that features a rather low 43-point total. That could lead most to construct lineups that are heavy on Panthers. Planning for a Houston victory would be an easy way to be different. Whichever way you choose, focus on building lineups to fit specific scenarios and game scripts. It's more important to find viable ways to be unique as opposed to worrying about which player has a slightly higher projection. For this slate that probably means leaving some salary on the table rather than fading Christian McCaffrey. 

QUARTERBACKS

Sam Darnold ($11,200 DK, $15,000 FD) is coming off another stellar performance Sunday as the Panthers upset the Saints. He completed 26 of 38 passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns with one interception against a New Orleans defense that had just shut down Aaron Rodgers. Thursday's matchup against Houston looks especially favorable. The Texans only managed to hit the opposing QB a combined six times in the first two weeks of season. The game script should be positive too considering Houston will turn to a rookie QB making his starting debut. The Panthers should have good starting field position and plenty of chances for points. Darnold is the second-most expensive player on the slate and projects for the second-most fantasy points. He likely will be the second-most popular behind McCaffrey, as it's likely he ends up on the optimal lineup if the Panthers win.

Davis Mills ($8,400 DK, $12,500 FD) is in line for his first NFL start after replacing the injured Tyrod Taylor in the first half of Sunday's game against the Browns. He completed eight of 18 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown with one interception. Mills is a third-round pick out of Stanford, where he started just 11 games and threw for 18 TDs and eight INTs. He'll have his work cut out Thursday against a Carolina defense that hit Jameis Winston 21 times and forced three turnovers last week. The salary makes him intriguing as we normally don't see QBs priced that cheaply. That, plus the murky RB situation in Houston, makes Mills one of the more appealing options on the Texans. 

Darnold will be a priority for me as most of my lineups will be built for a convincing Carolina win. I'll likely only roster Mills in builds that plan for competitive game and I won't roster him without a Texan pass catcher because he almost certainly needs a TD to be optimal. 

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

DJ Moore ($10,600 DK, $14,000 FD) has 19 targets in two games and clearly seems to be Darnold's favorite option. He's rightly the most expensive receiver on the slate and a great option for the captain spot considering how popular McCaffrey will be there. Robby Anderson ($7,800 DK, $10,000 FD) and Terrace Marshall ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) have each seen nine targets this season. Anderson played 75 percent of snaps last week while Marshall was in for 51 percent. Anderson is considerably more expensive but offers higher upside as the Panthers main deep threat. No. 4 WR Brandon Zylstra ($4,600 DK, $7,000 FD) played on just 18 percent of snaps but caught all three of his targets, including a first quarter touchdown last week. I'll take Marshall's second-round pedigree and higher snap-share when choosing between the two as I expect recency bias and salary to make popularity similar. I like the idea of rostering Darnold, McCaffrey and two WRs in hopes of Carolina blowout. 

On the Houston side, Brandin Cooks ($10,000 DK, $13,000 FD) has enjoyed a great start to his season after catching 14 of 21 targets through two games. He could see 10-plus targets Thursday, asa rookie QB likely will focus on his primary option. No other Texan WR saw more than two targets last week and now we have the biggest price gap between a team's first and second WR that I've ever seen on a single-game slate. Chris Conley ($1,600 DK, $7,000 FD), Anthony Miller ($1,000 DK, $5,500 FD) and Andre Roberts ($600 DK, $5,500 FD) are expected to serve as the No. 2-4 WRs with Danny Amendola (thigh) unlikely to play. Conley would be the safest bet after he played 90 percent of snaps last week. Miller will be active for the first time this season, making his role unclear. The cheap salaries make them all viable, either paired with Mills or as one-offs in 5:1 Carolina stacks.

Moving to tight end, Ian Thomas ($2,000 DK, $5,500 FD) has played the majority of snaps for the Panthers, but Dan Arnold ($4,800 DK, $7,500 FD) is a bigger threat in the passing game. Thomas has seen four targets to Arndold's seven. Both are touchdown-dependent and shouldn't be rostered without Darnold. 

The Texans operate with a time-share at TE as well. Pharaoh Brown ($2,600 DK, $5,500 FD) and Jordan Akins ($2,200 DK, $6,500 FD) each played 38 snaps last week while Akin ran 17 routes to Brown's 13. Both are extremely TD-dependent for Thursday in a game where there doesn't figure to be many targets or yards for the Texans pass catchers outside of Cooks. I prefer the cheaper WRs and I'll likely fade both TEs.

Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($13,400 DK, $17,500 FD) is the top overall play by a wide margin. I'd expect his popularity for Thursday to be among the highest we've ever seen for a single-game slate as there really isn't any reason to fade other than game theory. It would take a Houston blowout or an injury for him not to be optimal. The real decision is whether to use him in the captain/MVP spot. The answer depends on how much risk you're willing to take. While he's likely to be the night's highest scorer, and thus an optimal captain, his popularity will be sky-high there as well. Rostering him in the flex would be a first step toward some much needed leverage. It will be much harder to differentiate with McCaffrey in the captain/MVP spot and should one of those lineups win, it's likely to tie with 100-plus people. If you choose to captain him, make sure to leave some salary on the table. Fourth-round rookie Chuba Hubbard ($3,200 DK, $6,500 FD) carried eight times for 10 yards on Sunday as he spelled McCaffrey, who was dealing with cramps. Hubbard could make for a sneaky play in Carolina stacks but he really only makes sense if you're planning for a blowout as he would need garbage time to see enough touches. I'd only roster him with McCaffrey as opposed using him as a pivot. 

The running back situation in Houston is a bit of nightmare for fantasy purposes. Mark Ingram ($6,600 DK, $11,000 FD) has been the main ball carrier. He rushed 14 times last week while David Johnson ($5,400 DK, $8,000 FD) had six carries and Phillip Lindsay ($5,800 DK, $7,500 FD) had five. Johnson has been the most active in the passing game with six targets through two weeks. I'm not excited to roster any of them in what's expected to be a negative game script for Houston. Their salaries seem a bit too expensive given the timeshare. Ingram could get there with a touchdown while Johnson could catch some check downs as Houston plays catch up. I'm not opposed to just fading them all. I might rather take a shot on No. 4 RB Rex Burkhead ($200 DK, $5,000 FD). He's played only 21 snaps this season but he has a minimum salary and could get some work in the second half with the game out of reach. 

KICKERS 

The kickers are always viable in games with lower totals. Zane Gonzalez ($3,800 DK, $9,500 FD) could see multiple field goal attempts with the Panthers expected to have plenty of possession in Houston's half. Joey Slye ($3,600 DK, $9,000 FD) looks more appealing than the Texan's RBs that are priced above him and their TEs priced below him. Remember that a 50-yard field goal is essentially the same as a touchdown. I'll have exposure to both players. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Panthers ($6,200) defense has 10 sacks and three interceptions in two games. They hit Jameis Winston 21 times last week while holding the Saints to only seven points. The matchup against Houston and a debuting rookie QB is ideal. The problem is their salary as $6,200 is significantly more than we're used to seeing for a D/ST. For that price, they would need either a touchdown, or a dominant performance with multiple turnovers in order to be optimal. Last Thursday, The Football Team was a popular option for an elevated salary of $5,600 and it turned out to be the worst play on the slate. I normally fade expensive defenses but Carolina makes sense if you don't think Houston can score. The Texans ($3,000) are much cheaper and thus more viable for me. We know Sam Darnold is not above throwing a pick six. If you're making Carolina stacks, consider using the Texans D/ST as a way to differentiate. Few will play the opposing defense in a stack that hopes for a blowout but that strategy is more viable than it appears. There are scenarios where a return touchdown or a defensive score will be the only time Houston gets in the end zone.