This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was a bloodbath if you didn't take the chalk. The Rams, Colts, Ravens and Packers took down roughly 42 percent of pools. I lost some entries myself by diversifying to the Rams, illustrating that while diversity protects against losing everything, it greatly increases the chances of losing something.
Let's take a look at this week's slate.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| EAGLES | Jets | 46.30% | 637.5 | 86.44 | 6.28 |
| CHIEFS | Colts | 25.00% | 537.5 | 84.31 | 3.92 |
| Patriots | REDSKINS | 17.40% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.88 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 2.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.75 |
| Bears | Raiders*** | 2.30% | 215 | 68.25 | 0.73 |
| Vikings | GIANTS | 2.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.61 |
| TEXANS | Falcons | 1.30% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.41 |
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 0.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.18 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.50% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.19 |
| BENGALS | Cardinals | 0.40% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.15 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Patriots -- as usual -- are the clear pick, far less owned than the top two choices, and with the best chance to win. But the choice between the Eagles and Chiefs is a close one.
Who should you take in your Survivor pools this week? @Chris_Liss & @Jeff_Erickson let you know on @RotoWire. pic.twitter.com/TZZnorio7i
— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) October 3, 2019
An Eagles win/Chiefs loss happens (per Vegas) 86.5*16.5 percent of the time = 14.27%. A Chiefs win/Eagles loss is 11.4. The ratio of 14.27 to 11.4 is 1.25
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool, an Eagles win/Chiefs
Last week was a bloodbath if you didn't take the chalk. The Rams, Colts, Ravens and Packers took down roughly 42 percent of pools. I lost some entries myself by diversifying to the Rams, illustrating that while diversity protects against losing everything, it greatly increases the chances of losing something.
Let's take a look at this week's slate.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
| EAGLES | Jets | 46.30% | 637.5 | 86.44 | 6.28 |
| CHIEFS | Colts | 25.00% | 537.5 | 84.31 | 3.92 |
| Patriots | REDSKINS | 17.40% | 825 | 89.19 | 1.88 |
| CHARGERS | Broncos | 2.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.75 |
| Bears | Raiders*** | 2.30% | 215 | 68.25 | 0.73 |
| Vikings | GIANTS | 2.00% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.61 |
| TEXANS | Falcons | 1.30% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.41 |
| SAINTS | Buccaneers | 0.50% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.18 |
| Ravens | STEELERS | 0.50% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.19 |
| BENGALS | Cardinals | 0.40% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.15 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Patriots -- as usual -- are the clear pick, far less owned than the top two choices, and with the best chance to win. But the choice between the Eagles and Chiefs is a close one.
Who should you take in your Survivor pools this week? @Chris_Liss & @Jeff_Erickson let you know on @RotoWire. pic.twitter.com/TZZnorio7i
— Fantasy Sports Radio (@SiriusXMFantasy) October 3, 2019
An Eagles win/Chiefs loss happens (per Vegas) 86.5*16.5 percent of the time = 14.27%. A Chiefs win/Eagles loss is 11.4. The ratio of 14.27 to 11.4 is 1.25
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 pool, an Eagles win/Chiefs loss kills off 30 people total (25 on the Chiefs and five on other teams), leaving 70. $1000/70 = $14.29 in pool equity. A Chiefs win/Eagles loss kills off 51 people total, leaving 49. $1000/49 = $20.41. 20.41/14.29 = 1.43.
In sum, the reward for taking the Chiefs outweighs the added risk. So it's Chiefs over Eagles for me.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
I don't have to explain why the Patriots are a good bet to beat the Redskins, even in Washington, but the Pats offense was shaky last week in Buffalo. I give the Patriots an 87-percent chance to win this game.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
They're back home, might get Tyreek Hill back and while the Colts are a solid team, they're dealing with serious injuries of their own, namely T.Y. Hilton, Darius Leonard and Malik Hooker. I give the Chiefs an 84-percent chance to win this game.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
It's close between them and the Chiefs, but I did the math above, and the Chiefs come out slightly ahead. The Jets might have Sam Darnold back, but even so it'll be tough sledding on the ground, and their defense will have a hard time slowing down Carson Wentz. I give the Eagles an 85-percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Los Angeles Chargers - The Broncos are 0-4, but they played the Bears and Jaguars tough, run the ball decently and have found two reliable receivers. They're also a desperate animal.
Chicago Bears - I don't trust Chase Daniel, and a trip to London adds volatility. Plus the Raiders aren't as bad as usual.
Minnesota Vikings - The Vikings should handle the Giants, but New York has played much better since Daniel Jones took over, and Minnesota can't protect Kirk Cousins.
Houston Texans - They get a nice home match-up against the Falcons, but Atlanta has a lot of offensive firepower and should be able to move the ball.
