This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
Last week was an absolute bloodbath, one of the worst I've ever seen. Not only did the 48.4 percent-owned Saints lose outright to a 13-point underdog, but the 38.1 percent Colts (also double-digit favorites) lost too! As did the Chiefs, Giants, Rams and 49ers, all of whom were more than three-point favorites too. Only the Ravens -- largely unavailable to most -- the Bears, a last second pivot when Matthew Stafford was ruled out, and Packers came through.
In the unlikely event you're still alive, let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIDERS | Bengals | 57.40% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 9.77 |
| VIKINGS | Broncos | 20.90% | 500 | 83.33 | 3.48 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 10.20% | 600 | 85.71 | 1.46 |
| RAMS | Bears | 2.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.75 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 1.90% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.56 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 1.80% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.55 |
| Bills | DOLPHINS | 1.10% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.33 |
| Chiefs | Chargers*** | 1.00% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.36 |
| Cowboys | LIONS | 0.90% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.31 |
| Patriots | EAGLES | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.11 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in Mexico City
This is pretty clear cut week. The 49ers are the most likely to win and the least owned, followed by the Vikings (next most likely, less owned than the Raiders), followed by the Raiders (most owned, third most likely.) The only question is for those who have used the 49ers and Vikings, whether to pot-odds fade the Raiders for the Panthers or Rams.
Let's take the Rams
Last week was an absolute bloodbath, one of the worst I've ever seen. Not only did the 48.4 percent-owned Saints lose outright to a 13-point underdog, but the 38.1 percent Colts (also double-digit favorites) lost too! As did the Chiefs, Giants, Rams and 49ers, all of whom were more than three-point favorites too. Only the Ravens -- largely unavailable to most -- the Bears, a last second pivot when Matthew Stafford was ruled out, and Packers came through.
In the unlikely event you're still alive, let's take a look at Week 11:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAIDERS | Bengals | 57.40% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 9.77 |
| VIKINGS | Broncos | 20.90% | 500 | 83.33 | 3.48 |
| 49ERS | Cardinals | 10.20% | 600 | 85.71 | 1.46 |
| RAMS | Bears | 2.80% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.75 |
| PANTHERS | Falcons | 1.90% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.56 |
| Saints | BUCCANEERS | 1.80% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.55 |
| Bills | DOLPHINS | 1.10% | 230 | 69.70 | 0.33 |
| Chiefs | Chargers*** | 1.00% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.36 |
| Cowboys | LIONS | 0.90% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.31 |
| Patriots | EAGLES | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.11 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in Mexico City
This is pretty clear cut week. The 49ers are the most likely to win and the least owned, followed by the Vikings (next most likely, less owned than the Raiders), followed by the Raiders (most owned, third most likely.) The only question is for those who have used the 49ers and Vikings, whether to pot-odds fade the Raiders for the Panthers or Rams.
Let's take the Rams who are more heavily favored. A Raiders win/Rams loss happens 83 * 27 percent of the time = 22.41 percent. A Rams win/Raiders loss happens 73 * 17 percent = 12.41 percent of the time. 22.41/12/41 = 1.81.
In our typical 100-person, $10 pool, a Raiders loss/Rams win takes out 57 people with the Raiders and eight people on other teams or 65 total, leaving 35 remaining. $1000/35 = $28.57.
A Raiders win/Rams loss knocks out three people with the Rams and another eight on other teams, for a total of 11, or 89 remaining. $1000/89 = $11.24. $28.57/$11.24 = 2.54.
In other words, the reward for taking the Rams over the Raiders outweighs the added risk, assuming you agree with the Vegas odds and polling numbers. The Panthers are also the better pick than the Raiders, but by a smaller margin. The Saints and Bills would be fairly close too.
My Picks
1. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are playing well, at home and face a Denver team with an inexperienced QB with little pedigree. I give them an 83 percent chance to win this game.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Based on the Vegas numbers, they should be the top pick, but I don't like that they played an overtime game Monday night, and we don't know about George Kittle's status, either. Moreover, Kyler Murray makes the Cardinals a live dog. I give the 49ers an 81 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Rams
This is strictly a pot-odds play as I don't trust Jared Goff much against the Bears defense, but the Rams play better at home, and Mitchell Trubisky is on the other side. I give the Rams a 72 percent chance to win this game.
4. Carolina Panthers
I like the Panthers to bounce back at home against a bad Falcons team, but there's always the chance Atlanta's defensive improvement is for real with Dan Quinn giving up the defensive coordinator duties. I give the Panthers a 71 percent chance to win this game.
5. Oakland Raiders
They should crush the Bengals, but they're more than 57 percent owned, and any NFL team can lose on a given Sunday (see last week's Saints and Colts, both of whom were bigger favorites than the Raiders.) I give the Raiders an 83 percent chance to win this game.
6. New Orleans Saints
They're coming off a terrible loss, playing on the road and missing Marshawn Lattimore, but their offensive and defensive lines are so good, and they're well-coached. I give the Saints a 70 percent chance to win this game.
7. Buffalo Bills
They're just a league-average team, and they're on the road, but they're playing one of the league doormats, even if the Dolphins have been more credible of late. I give the Bills a 66 percent chance to win this game.
8. Dallas Cowboys
They're coming off a home loss to the Vikings, but they face a Lions team that has only one strength -- passing -- and that could be without its starting QB for another week. I give the Cowboys a 65 percent chance to win this game, and if Matthew Stafford is confirmed out, bump it up to 73, and the Cowboys up to No. 4.
Notable Omissions: Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs face a talented Chargers team that knows them well, the Patriots are on the road against a solid Philly team and the Ravens could have their hands full with Deshaun Watson.
