This article is part of our Showdown/Single Game DFS Breakdown series.
The Packers' season is just about toast at 4-7, especially given the presumed result of their Sunday Night Football matchup at Philadelphia (-6.5). The Eagles have taken some hits in recent weeks, losing to Washington and barely beating the hapless Colts, so their 9-1 record is arguably not as imposing as they were at 8-0. The Eagles have something to prove, in other words, which isn't normally the case with a 9-1 team. Aaron Rodgers is evidently playing through a broken thumb on his throwing hand, which would make playing difficult indeed. The game might have some rain early on, though it's expected to stop some point by halftime or so. The over/under is 46.5 after opening at 45.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Particularly on single-game slates it's difficult to fade a dual-threat quarterback like Jalen Hurts ($11600 DK, $17000 FD), because it's not uncommon for him to claim the most enviable spoils of the Philadelphia rushing attack even if he has a productive game passing. The rain is something of a concern, but even if it grounds the Philadelphia passing game for a quarter or two Hurts could still provide standout rushing production until the weather clears up. The Packers are not a well-coached or well-schemed defense, while Shane Steichen does a consistently great job calling the Philadelphia offense. It seems safe to assume something like, while the weather could be a complicating factor, if the Eagles aren't scoring points in this game then nobody is.
Aaron Rodgers ($10000 DK, $15500
The Packers' season is just about toast at 4-7, especially given the presumed result of their Sunday Night Football matchup at Philadelphia (-6.5). The Eagles have taken some hits in recent weeks, losing to Washington and barely beating the hapless Colts, so their 9-1 record is arguably not as imposing as they were at 8-0. The Eagles have something to prove, in other words, which isn't normally the case with a 9-1 team. Aaron Rodgers is evidently playing through a broken thumb on his throwing hand, which would make playing difficult indeed. The game might have some rain early on, though it's expected to stop some point by halftime or so. The over/under is 46.5 after opening at 45.5.
QUARTERBACKS
Particularly on single-game slates it's difficult to fade a dual-threat quarterback like Jalen Hurts ($11600 DK, $17000 FD), because it's not uncommon for him to claim the most enviable spoils of the Philadelphia rushing attack even if he has a productive game passing. The rain is something of a concern, but even if it grounds the Philadelphia passing game for a quarter or two Hurts could still provide standout rushing production until the weather clears up. The Packers are not a well-coached or well-schemed defense, while Shane Steichen does a consistently great job calling the Philadelphia offense. It seems safe to assume something like, while the weather could be a complicating factor, if the Eagles aren't scoring points in this game then nobody is.
Aaron Rodgers ($10000 DK, $15500 FD) is reportedly playing with an avulsion fracture in his right thumb, which would help explain his disappointing production in 2022. The problem is that the explanation offers no reassurance, and if it was a problem before then it might remain a problem now. Not just that, but the Eagles defense is one of the best in the league. The Philadelphia run defense has suffered since Jordan Davis got hurt, but the pass defense remains imposing even while Davis recovers. Even if he were fully healthy Rodgers would have an understandable excuse for producing poorly against a defense like this. Hopefully Rodgers' thumb is trending in an improved direction, because it might be asking too much for him to transcend the circumstances otherwise.
RUNNING BACKS
While the Eagles pass defense is formidable, the run defense is not. Aaron Jones ($10400 DK, $13500 FD) should be in good position to produce in this game, especially if the Packers shy away from the passing game at all in light of Rodgers' thumb issues. If not Jones then AJ Dillon ($4800 DK, $10000 FD) should do something on the ground, with the main issue otherwise being the possibility that the Eagles pull away so fast that the Packers abandon the run. Given Rodgers' condition the Packers seem likely to run even if they fall behind more than one score.
Miles Sanders ($8800 DK, $13000 FD) has been quiet lately but could easily get back on track in this matchup. The Packers run defense is not good, and while Hurts is a threat to lead the Eagles in rushing production he of course does not do so every week. In the weeks where Hurts doesn't lead the Philadelphia rushing game it almost categorically must be Sanders who benefits. Players like Kenneth Gainwell ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) and Boston Scott ($2600 DK, $6500 FD) seem limited strictly to backup roles, though they both have the ability to capitalize if an unexpected opportunity should arise.
WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS
Christian Watson ($7200 DK, $11500 FD) and Allen Lazard ($7400 DK, $11000 FD) might struggle to separate from Darius Slay and James Bradberry, respectively, and the issue with Rodgers' thumb adds more concern yet. Watson can make big plays and Lazard doesn't need to get open to make a catch, and especially if garbage time occurs it's easy enough to manage either player seeing a spree of targets. Randall Cobb ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) probably gets the easiest matchup most of the time, as he should see Josiah Scott rather than Slay or Bradberry. Robert Tonyan ($5000 DK, $7000 FD) continues to produce on a per-route basis but there hasn't been much of a role for him in the Green Bay offense, where he rotates relatively often with Marcedes Lewis ($200 DK, $5500 FD) and Josiah Deguara ($1000 DK, $5000 FD), though neither of them (especially Lewis) draws targets on a predictable basis. Sammy Watkins ($3400 DK, $7500 FD) is seemingly locked in as the fourth receiver.
A.J. Brown ($11200 DK, $14500 FD) is almost always a menace and it's difficult to see why this game would be an exception. The Packers defense does not scheme well and struggles with basic details, so that Brown also has the talent advantage against the Green Bay cornerbacks is an unnecessary additional benefit. DeVonta Smith ($8000 DK, $12000 FD) tends to claim most of the underneath targets in the offense rather than the downfield ones, but Smith is more than capable of doing major damage against this defense with Dallas Goedert out, especially if Smith gets matched up with Rasul Douglas. Quez Watkins ($4600 DK, $8500 FD) and Zach Pascal ($2000 DK, $8000 FD) split the playing time for the WR3 role, but Watkins tends to get most of the target-viable snaps between them. Jack Stoll ($1200 DK, $6500 FD) was a non-factor last week but his 24 routes were a substantial usage volume for the price. Perhaps he keeps failing with his opportunities or has his opportunities scaled back in favor of Grant Calcaterra ($200 DK, $6500 FD), but Calcaterra has yet to do anything useful himself.
KICKERS
Jake Elliott ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) might be a solid kicker, but the Eagles rarely indulge field goal attempts. Elliott has made more than one field goal in just one game this year, and he only attempted two in that game. Mason Crosby ($3800 DK, $8500 FD) is the lesser player between himself and Elliott but usually sees more field goal opportunities – Crosby has two double-digit fantasy point games this year while Elliott has only one.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Aaron Rodgers is rarely turnover-prone even at his worst, so it's not a lock that the Eagles ($5600 DK, $9500 FD) defense turns his thumb injury into interception opportunities. The sacks could be there, especially if the Philadelphia offense scores quickly – the Eagles certainly feature a deep pass rush. Britain Covey ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is the returner pairing if you're looking for one, though Covey has had no success as a returner and only has five offensive snaps on the year. It's difficult to see the angle with which the Packers ($3200 DK, $9000 FD) do well in this game.
