NFL Picks and Props for Wild-Card Weekend
The 2025 National Football League kicked off Super Wild-Card weekend in Charlotte and Chicago on Saturday, but we're going to focus on the trio of games on Sunday. We'll make a pick in each of those games! Let's get started!
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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Bills (12-5) and the Jaguars (13-4) meet in the AFC wild-card game Sunday at 1 p.m. EST on CBS.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence will be make his first postseason starts since playing two games in the 2022 season. He had four TD passes in the AFC wild-card round against the Los Angeles Chargers on Jan. 14, 2023 at EverBank Stadium, while fizzling in a road game in Kansas City the next week.
In the regular-season, the Bills were No. 1 in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 2,894 yards through the air with a low 59.7 percent completion against rate, while conceding 19 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. In other words, it could be tough sledding for Lawrence, even at home. He threw for 2,157 yards, 16 TDs and just 4 INTs at home this season. However, we'll go low on his passing yardage total.
Lawrence did run for four touchdowns at home, and nine total scores with his legs. As such, we'll go with Lawrence to get the job done with at least one TD run.
On the flip side, Josh Allen will face a Jacksonville passing defense which recorded 22 interceptions, tops in the AFC, and second-most in the NFL behind only the Chicago Bears (23). Allen should be coaxed into at least one miscue. He has nine TDs and just six INTs on the road this season, with an 87.7 QB Rating, as opposed to 16 TDs and just 4 INTs with a 114.8 QB Rating at home.
Best Prop Pick: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence - Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-113 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence - Anytime Touchdown (+180 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen - Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+100 BetMGM)
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The 49ers (12-5) and Eagles (11-6) square off at 4:30 p.m. EST on FOX, as Philadelphia opens its defense of last season's Super Bowl title in a home playoff game.
Win or lose, I don't know, but there is a high probability of the Eagles getting the ball on the 1-yard line and attempting the "Tush Push". Whether you love the play, or hate the play, it's a great option to take Eagles QB Jalen Hurts as an Anytime Touchdown Scorer.
In addition, we're going to go low on the passing yardage for 49ers QB Brock Purdy. Since returning from injury in mid-November, he threw for 200 or fewer yards in two of his three road games. The Eagles allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL in the regular season, just 3,476 yards.
Lastly, it's not necessarily a player prop, but this is a betting props piece, not just player props. I love the 49ers 2+ Made Field Goals (-145) prop. San Francisco could find difficulty piercing the end zone at times, but PK Eddy Pineiro has had a strong season, and he should be able to negotiate the winds properly at Lincoln Financial Field.
Best Prop Pick: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts - Anytime Touchdown (+115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: 49ers QB Brock Purdy - Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: 49ers 2+ Made Field Goals (-145 FanDuel)
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Chargers (11-6) and Patriots (14-3) meet at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough at 8:15 p.m. EST on NBC/Peacock.
The last time we saw Chargers QB Justin Herbert was in Week 17, as he rested in the regular-season finale. And, the most recent playoff showing was last season in Houston in an AFC Wild-Card game on Jan. 11, 2025. In a 32-12 loss, as he completed just 14-of-32 passes for 242 yards, one touchdown and four picks.
The Patriots are a very good passing defense, ranking No. 9 in the NFL in yardage allowed (3,512), while posting 10 interceptions. Look for Herbert to go low on his passing total.
In the run game, RB Omarion Hampton heads into this game with a questionable tag due to an ankle injury. He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, while going on a limited basis Friday. In addition to going low on Hampton's rushing total, we'll take Kimani Vidal to go high on his projection.
Patriots QB Drake Maye makes his first-career postseason start, and he should be able to hook up with his receivers for at least two touchdowns. And, I like one of the scores to go to former Chargers TE Hunter Henry, a second-round pick out of Arkansas in 2016 by the Bolts. Henry had four of his seven touchdowns at home, and he is always a threat in the red zone.
Best Prop Pick: Chargers QB Justin Herbert - Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115 Caesars)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Kimani Vidal - Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Patriots QB Drake Maye - Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Patriots TE Hunter Henry - Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175 BetMGM)
Best Pro Plays - Wild-Card Weekend
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Best Prop Pick: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence - Under 239.5 Passing Yards (-113 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence - Anytime Touchdown (+180 DraftKings)
Best Prop Pick: Bills QB Josh Allen - Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+100 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts - Anytime Touchdown (+115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: 49ers QB Brock Purdy - Under 228.5 Passing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: 49ers 2+ Made Field Goals (-145 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers QB Justin Herbert - Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115 Caesars)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Kimani Vidal - Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM)
Best Prop Pick: Patriots QB Drake Maye - Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Patriots TE Hunter Henry - Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+175 BetMGM)
